zlacker

This is sorta brilliant.

Microsoft has access to almost everything OpenAI does. And now Altman and Brockman will have that access too.

Meanwhile, I imagine their tenure at MSFT will be short-lived, because hot-shot startup folks don’t really want to work there.

They can stabilize, use OpenAI’s data and models for free, use Microsoft’s GPUs at cost, and start a new company shortly, of which Microsoft will own some large share.

Altman doesn’t need Microsoft’s money - but Microsoft has direct access to OpenAI, which is currently priceless.

>>nostro+(OP)
Satya will probably allow them to run a startup under the MS umbrella without interference and with full MS backing.

>>mirzap+r1
I really don’t think that’s in the Microsoft DNA to do

>>nostro+(OP)
if hot shot startup folks don't want to work there, why would they even go there? If you're flat broke, you need a job; they're not flat broke, they don't need a job. The deal at MS is worth it, or it's not, it's not something they need to decide over the course of a weekend... unless it's what they were already not being candid about.

>>mirzap+r1
How will equity and compensation work

AI peeps are not cheap

>>fsckbo+J1
> if hot shot startup folks don't want to work there, why would they even go there

MSFT may have offered them a lucrative offer to join (for the time being) in order to alleviate the potential stock dump.

>>mirzap+r1
Yeah... Not really how a mega-corp like MSFT does things. They LOVE to have control.

>>fsckbo+J1
Microsoft have access to the gold mine and with a bit of time Altman can get enough gold to open a jewelry business

>>sekai+S2
It’s not 1998 anymore, you’d be surprised

>>jimsim+l2
multiple ways to make that work. LTIPs, share options, direct equity in subsidiary etc

>>sekai+S2
It is Satya we are talking about, I won't bet against him.

>>manc_l+i3
MSFT comp is shit though

OAI comp was high based on equity and its crazy valuations

>>akmari+T2
How? It's not like he expect to just walk out of there with models or data?

>>mirzap+r1
Highly unlikely. Instead they'll be working on internal Windows AI tools for chatbots and random AI features in Windows. We all lose in this situation.

>>dagmx+I1
This is not Ballmer era. It's Satya.

>>estoma+M3
If it’s under Microsoft’s umbrella - sure he can

>>esskay+P3
There’s no chance Sam is joining Microsoft to be some “VP of AI” to drive strategy like that. He’s going to be driving some new business where he’ll be able to move quickly and have a ton of control.

>>sekai+B2
Sam is already post money rich. Lucrative isn’t in this equation

>>sekai+S2
Was not the Xbox team kinda run like that?

>>dagmx+I1
As I was saying, Satya justt confirmed it: https://twitter.com/satyanadella/status/1726516824597258569

>>esskay+P3
As I was saying, Satya just confirmed it: https://twitter.com/satyanadella/status/1726516824597258569

>>fsckbo+J1
It is the only way they can continue the work they have already contributed at OpenAI. Otherwise, it would mean they spend months or up to a year training their own model which in this arms race isn't feasible with viable competitors like Anthropic closing the gap quickly. This was the only way forward. I'm sure Sam Altman + Greg were offered an incredibly lucrative deal and autonomy.

>>sekai+S2
Microsoft is not a pyramid organization, but distributed into teams - like Google, for better or for worse.

>>sekai+S2
Microsoft seems to be the best of the mega-corps at that.

>>jimsim+K3
Is Microsoft compensation for top AI talent also bad?

>>sekai+S2
The game studios under Xbox run quite independently with the most extreme example being Mojang with Minecraft which still releases all their games on Playstation/Nintendo consoles too. But the other studios are also very independent based on all the interviews (though they don't in general release their games on Playstation or Switch)

As I understand Github is also run very independently from Microsoft in general.

>>nostro+(OP)
"brilliant"

I think "predictable" is more apt.

>>sekai+S2
These are incorrect priors, especially when the mega-corp in question is Microsoft under Satya Nadella.

>>jimsim+K3
Microsoft comp is actually not bad at higher levels, which I assume will be given to all OAI people that will join.

>>sekai+S2
Source for the below: Worked at Skype before and after the MS acquisition.

MSFT's control isn't as "hard" as you portray it to be. At the senior leadership level they're pretty happy to allow divisions quite a lot of autonomy. Sure there are broad directives like if you support multiple platforms/OSes then the best user experience should be on "our" platform. But that still leaves a lot of room for maneuverability.

Soft control via human resources and company culture is a whole other beast though. There are a lot of people with 20+ years of experience at Microsoft who are happy to jump on job openings for middle-management roles in the "sexy" divisions of the company - the ones which are making headlines and creating new markets. And each one that slides on in brings a lot of the lifelong Microsoft mindset with them.

So yeah working within MS will be a very different experience for Altman, but not necessarily because of an iron grip from above.

>>mirzap+o4
This is not Melkor era. It's Sauron.

>>tsunam+y5
>Sam is already post money rich. Lucrative isn’t in this equation

i totally agree, except stupid-lucrative is still in the equation, like Elon Musk rich, not because of the money, but because it says "my electric cars did more to stop global warming than anything you've done"

whether this round of AI turns into AGI doesn't precisely matter, it's on the way and it's going to be big, who wouldn't want their name attached to it.

>>cphoov+J9
It makes perfect sense for Satya, Sam, and Greg, but I doubt many of us thought deeply enough to have predicted it in advance.

>>jimsim+K3
For us maybe, but they have pulled off some high profile hires in the past… Brendan Burns (one of the main k8s guys) for example.

>>saagar+79
Received wisdom has been “not competitive”. I wonder how the MSR folk feel about all of this, too.

>>Wurdan+1b
Funny that you mention Skype as this is my prime example of extremely accelerated product disintegration.

>>cphoov+J9
link to your prediction?

>>sekai+S2
It's not really how MSFT does things though?

Github operates independently of Microsoft. (To Microsoft's detriment... they offer Azure Devops which is their enterprisey copy of Github, with entirely different UX and probably different codebase.) They shove the copilot AI now everywhere but it still seems to operate fairly differently.

They didn't really fold LinkedIn in into anything (there are some weird LinkedIn integrations in Teams but that's it)

Google seems to me much worse in this aspect, all Google aquisitions usually become Googley.

Skype sort of became Teams thought, that's true.

>>esskay+P3
Optimization of Microsoft Edge (tm) icon placement to win the browser wars.

>>gzer0+27
it's been 2 days, they haven't even heard all the possible offers. Microsoft hasn't offered anybody autonomy since billg granted it to himself. Even Myhyrvold never did anything autonomous till he resigned and wrote a cookbook. The closest thing to autonomous in Microsoft was neilk breathing enough new life into 16bit Windows to get them to abandon OS/2

>>singul+gf
My view on that (which was from very low on the totem pole) is that the acquisition happened at a time where Skype's core business model (paid calling minutes) was under existential threat. Consumer communications preferences had started to go from synchronous (calling) to async (messaging) even before the acquisition came through. While Skype had asynchronous communications in a decent place (file transfer in the P2P days was pretty shaky but otherwise consumer Skype was a solid messaging platform), there was no revenue there for us.

Then the acquisition happened at a time when Microsoft presented a lot of opportunities to ship Skype "in the box" to pretty much all of MS' customers. Windows 8, Xbox One and Windows Phone (8) all landed at more or less the same time. Everybody's eyes became too big for their stomachs, and we tried to build brand new native experiences for all of these platforms (and the web) all at once. This hampered our ability to pivot and deal with the existential risks I mentioned earlier, and we had the rug pulled out from under us.

So yes I think the acquisition hurt us, but I also never once heard a viable alternative business strategy that we might have pivoted to if the acquisition hadn't happened.

>>nostro+(OP)
Lets assume the whole structure works, 1-2 years later, Sam becomes the apparent CEO candidate after Satya.

>>dagmx+I1
I believe Microsoft R&D has always been a widely respected and culturally “different” org than the rest of the Microsoft org.

>>dagmx+I1
Sure but this situation overrrides that. Sam has a lot of bargaining power.

>>ybob+el
That would be very bad.

>>jimsim+K3
OpenAI never gave equity.

>>shp0ng+Qf
> Github operates independently of Microsoft. (To Microsoft's detriment... they offer Azure Devops which is their enterprisey copy of Github, with entirely different UX and probably different codebase.)

GitHub Actions is basically Azure Pipelines repackaged with a different UI, so I don't think they mind much.

>>nostro+(OP)
> Microsoft has access to almost everything OpenAI does. And now Altman and Brockman will have that access too.

Microsoft still has to deal with OpenAI as an entity to keep the existing set up intact. The new team has to kinda start from zero. Right?

>>mirzap+c6
This was inevitable and the only path forward.

>>38318205

>>38337522

>>38342882

>>mirzap+c6
Saying it and doing it are very different things. Many huge, lumbering companies have a “startup” lab. Few have done anything of note, and typically it’s because the reasons that made the company move slow and not take risks don’t magically disappear because you’re in a different part of the org chart.

>>ctvo+vE
If anything, the examples in that tweet shows the opposite. GitHub and Mojang both done lots of things that wouldn't happen if they weren't now Microsoft, especially GitHub which is only "GitHub" by name at this point, none of the original spirit is still there.

>>ctvo+vE
100% agree

>>singul+Nf
I mean there weren't a lot of options.

>>Wurdan+wj
That's a completely new take for me on how things went down. Thanks for sharing.

>>nostro+(OP)
That was my first thought too: Didn't occur to me as a solution, and it seems to square the circle brilliantly. It struck me that this is why people who are CEOs of mammoth companies have the jobs they have, and not me :)

>>cphoov+J9
I've read a decent amount of predictions about this and had not actually seen this one or considered it until I read about it happening.

I think the predictable thing would have been a new company with new investment from Microsoft. But this is better; it a bit like magical thinking that MS would want to just throw more money after a new venture and essentially write off the old one. This solution accomplished similar things, but gives more to Microsoft in the trade by bringing that "new company" fully in house.

>>boring+OJ
Yes but I didn't see this one discussed at all. Did you? Curious to see those threads if you have links. I might have just missed them.

>>ybob+el
I said this elsewhere, but think the timeline is longer than that. Either Sam and Satya will butt heads and Altman will be sidelined, or it will be a good partnership, and he'll be on the shortlist as a successor when Nadella's run naturally comes to a close. But that second path is longer than a couple years.

>>ctvo+vE
Microsoft is not just any huge, lumbering company, though. It has probably the best history of research of any pure software company (leaving aside IBM etc): Microsoft Research funded Haskell behind the scenes for years, they had a quantum computing unit in 2006, and already in 2018 were beating the field in AI patents and research:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2019/01/06/micros...

Believing that OpenAI is MSFT's sole move in the AI space would be a serious error.