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[parent] [thread] 36 comments
1. underl+(OP)[view] [source] 2024-08-10 23:01:05
They're going to eat our lunch because we let our legacy ICE vehicle manufacturers dictate the terms of the shift to electric. We have to be better about identifying economic developments that are likely to be concerns for domestic stability and national security, and not let greed and fear in the corporate class stop us from making the necessary changes. Another arena where we've already lost, in a sense, and will need to play hardball catch-up is healthcare: other countries have a more stable and hour-for-hour productive workforce because their workers can get preventative care and treatment for illnesses quickly and without a fuss. If we have to trash the medical insurance industry to reach parity with our peers, so be it.
replies(3): >>bobthe+61 >>gottor+I5 >>apsec1+C8
2. bobthe+61[view] [source] 2024-08-10 23:15:49
>>underl+(OP)
Where are you seeing the US is a laggard in hour by hour productivity? The US is the best large country at this, coming in at #6 or #13 depending on the list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_labour_pr...
replies(2): >>jazzyj+A4 >>rich_s+fA
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3. jazzyj+A4[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 00:16:03
>>bobthe+61
Hm, that's measuring everyone against the same dollar; Americans are productive by this measure because everything is expensive. I wonder if there are other benchmarks for productivity, adjusted for local market basket.
replies(2): >>gottor+N5 >>tobero+X5
4. gottor+I5[view] [source] 2024-08-11 00:35:41
>>underl+(OP)
> we let our legacy ICE vehicle manufacturers dictate the terms of the shift to electric

Is that true? There was a policy push here to sell EVs, though there of course is continuing debate about what the magnitude of that push should be. The market so far in the US has spoken against greater adoption of EVs, for various reasons.

OP's article doesn't mention or discuss two very salient factors: one, that EV use in Shanghai is massively subsidized, both at the point of sale (EVs are free to register, whereas ICE vehicle registration starts at $15k) as well as to the producers; and two, whether such a subsidy is in fact for the long-term benefit of the public.

> other countries have a more stable and hour-for-hour productive workforce because their workers can get preventative care and treatment for illnesses quickly and without a fuss

No one would argue that healthcare in the US couldn't be improved, but I disagree that the payment model is the biggest issue. The way I see it, the biggest issue by far is that people are just very, very unhealthy! A full three quarters of adults are either overweight or obese. No country can have a cost-effective healthcare system with this kind of population.

And the distribution of healthcare spending is extremely lopsided, with the top 5% of spenders accounting for over half of all healthcare expenditure, and the bottom half of spenders comprising a mere 3% of spending[0]. (A few countries with socialized healthcare are starting to toy with the idea of just letting those high spenders die, with assisted suicide.) I don't know that a better system can be achieved without first promulgating a culture that values being healthy.

[0]: https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/health-...

replies(1): >>socksy+W9
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5. gottor+N5[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 00:36:33
>>jazzyj+A4
The source claims that the figures are measured in the "international dollar", which is adjusted for purchasing power in different countries.
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6. tobero+X5[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 00:38:27
>>jazzyj+A4
The numbers are in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) USD so they already measure how many goods in the local market basket can be bought per working hour (on average, as these GDP numbers don’t account for income or wealth distribution).
replies(1): >>roenxi+ke
7. apsec1+C8[view] [source] 2024-08-11 01:28:44
>>underl+(OP)
I mean, the ultimate reason why the US doesn't have China's electric vehicle policy is that the US is a democracy, and it would be massively unpopular. The median US voter is, like, a 40-something mother in a random suburb of Pennsylvania, who doesn't have a college degree, has a house with a mortgage, and is moderate but doesn't pay much attention to politics. To get Chinese policies enacted in the US, people like that would have to be convinced that mass-producing electric cars was more important than preserving local forests (need 'em for a factory site), paying workers prevailing wage (drives up production costs), keeping gas and ICE car registration cheap (makes electric less competitive), having cheap goods on sale at Walmart (strong currency makes imports cheap but exports expensive), avoiding noise and dust from construction (have to put the power lines somewhere), running a low government deficit (manufacturing subsidies aren't free), etc. There's a lot of trade-offs that people don't want to make.
replies(3): >>alephn+Eb >>thauma+Lc >>presen+of
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8. socksy+W9[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 01:46:41
>>gottor+I5
In a system where healthcare is socialized, you also get strong incentives to introduce policies that can reduce that cost. Examples would include the UK's ban on cigarette branding, introducing a tax on sugar in soft drinks, and banning smoking in public spaces.

Where I live in Germany we have a system I would characterise as somewhere in-between a fully socialized single payer system and the American system (you have insurance companies you choose between, but you're required to have some kind of insurance, and there are a set of "public" insurances that must meet a certain standard at a certain price). But here I can't buy a sugar free Fritz Limo, nor go to a popular bar or club without inhaling smoke.

Obviously countries can enact such policies without socialized health care, and things are not all sunshine and rainbows in the NHS. But I reckon that waiting around until there's a healthy populace before bringing in a better health system might not necessarily be the best strategy.

replies(3): >>froh+jb >>klipt+ac >>roenxi+Ye
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9. froh+jb[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 02:09:32
>>socksy+W9
> But here I can't buy a sugar free Fritz Limo, nor go to a popular bar or club without inhaling smoke.

too many double negations?

where I live in Germany, smoking is plain banned in clubs. and sure there are sugar free drinks both on the menu and in shops.

so I don't get what you mean?

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10. alephn+Eb[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 02:16:37
>>apsec1+C8
Sprawl is the major difference and a major reason behind range anxiety.

Chinese cities are very very dense, and very new due to urban redevelopment projects in the 2000s-2021. For example, the urban core of Shanghai is around 20 miles end-to-end, so the same size as Wichita end-to-end, yet has a population of around 20mil compared to 350k.

This helps sustain both public transit as well as EVs with minimal range anxiety.

The industrial policy aspect of EVs also helps ofc, but big picture it works with the range and size of Chinese metropolitan areas.

The issue is the sprawl factor simply can't be solved in a country as spread out as the US, so long range batteries (looking at you Idemetsu Kosan and Toyota) or hybrids are the best solution in a sprawly semi-urban environment.

replies(1): >>Zoomer+zi
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11. klipt+ac[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 02:24:18
>>socksy+W9
> you have insurance companies you choose between, but you're required to have some kind of insurance, and there are a set of "public" insurances that must meet a certain standard at a certain price

That's basically Obamacare. Except in the US most people still get health insurance through their employers.

replies(2): >>seanmc+Mc >>Diogen+Zi
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12. thauma+Lc[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 02:35:50
>>apsec1+C8
> To get Chinese policies enacted in the US, people like that would have to be convinced that mass-producing electric cars was more important than [...] keeping gas and ICE car registration cheap (makes electric less competitive)

It's worth noting that car registration in Shanghai was staggeringly expensive before electric cars were a possibility. That's just a continuation of existing Chinese policies; it obviously helps electric cars, but that was no part of the intent of the policy. (I assume the intent was some combination of reducing traffic times and reducing pollution from exhaust.)

replies(2): >>seanmc+0d >>alephn+ld
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13. seanmc+Mc[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 02:36:00
>>klipt+ac
The conservative heritage foundation got the idea from Switzerland. Romney then adopted it from the heritage foundation Massachusetts and Obama decided it was the path with the most Republican (and so bi-partisan) support so pushed it for the rest of the country.
replies(1): >>underl+Te
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14. seanmc+0d[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 02:39:55
>>thauma+Lc
Beijing went with a lottery instead of an auction, but a separate lottery pool for electric cars sealed the deal for them in Beijing as well, even before China had a lot of its own options and Tesla built the Shanghai plant, you would see a lot of Model S’s on the road circa 2015-2016.
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15. alephn+ld[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 02:43:28
>>thauma+Lc
Shanghai's government has a significant stake in a number of EV companies as well - SAIC is owned by Shanghai's government.

The support by local governments is a major factor for the EV boom (along with other booms like renewables).

The mixture of federal, regional, and local support is a fairly critical part of the Chinese development model.

replies(2): >>jimz+ff >>bobthe+Nn1
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16. roenxi+ke[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 03:02:55
>>tobero+X5
For healthcare it might be getting to the point where the numbers are nearly incomparable. PPP seems like it'd be more inappropriate than usual for measuring a particular industry. US healthcare is known to be quirky.

Although there doesn't seem to be any obvious evidence here that the US could be lagging behind. Per-person the US is still a bit of a productivity outlier to the upside. When they aren't legislatively restrained they tend to work hard and in an organised way.

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17. underl+Te[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 03:15:16
>>seanmc+Mc
Obama worked really hard to get Republican buy-in. He held that big meeting with Congress that was meant to be a sort of a summit (where they stonewalled him), and even let Pelosi kill the public option. Nothing doing; the problem wasn't that it was good or bad policy, it was that it was Obama's policy (after it was Romney's, after it was the Heritage Foundation's).
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18. roenxi+Ye[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 03:18:48
>>socksy+W9
> In a system where healthcare is socialized, you also get strong incentives to introduce policies that can reduce that cost. Examples would include the UK's ban on cigarette branding, introducing a tax on sugar in soft drinks, and banning smoking in public spaces.

Strictly speaking the incentives don't change much. People have a strong incentive to stay healthy no matter what system is in place, and the insurance companies have a strong incentive to make sure people know about the risks of sugar drinks etc.

replies(1): >>aaomid+7j
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19. jimz+ff[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 03:24:56
>>alephn+ld
You say support, I say coercion. There is no federalism in China. It's all mandated, even if the language used is ambiguous enough to be interpreted as voluntary, policy in China is never discretionary when orders come down from above.

(Technically there's no federal government, period. There's just the bureaucracy and the party. The party's leadership determines policy, the bureaucracy carries it out. Local decisionmaking exists when micromanagement reaches its limits, and ultimately it is a system of gap-filling. Or, in a sense, it's a system that the 9th and 10th Amendments of the US Constitution anticipated and therefore needed to be addressed, 200 years early)

replies(1): >>alephn+rg
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20. presen+of[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 03:28:16
>>apsec1+C8
> people like that would have to be convinced that mass-producing electric cars was more important than preserving local forests

As though there isn’t a glut of underutilized parking lots littering literally every American metro where the local forests were bulldozed decades ago

> paying workers prevailing wage

Subsidies are there to pay for wages and for automation to be less reliant on labor costs, of which China automates waaaay more than the USA does

> running a low government deficit

Industrial subsidies have the potential to pay back far more than the government puts in, and would be much smaller in size than other boondoggles the US government pays for

Honestly I think this is all just excuses and China just took advantage of the incompetence of our leadership to leapfrog us. Since when did Americans not want to be #1?

replies(1): >>bobthe+on1
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21. alephn+rg[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 03:52:24
>>jimz+ff
> There is no federalism in China

Yes there de facto is, especially due to the post-Mao reforms.

If you want to dig into how Chinese federalism works, I'd recommend these sources [0][1]

[0] - https://cjil.uchicago.edu/print-archive/cooperative-federali...

[1] - https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262534246/how-reform-worked-in-...

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22. Zoomer+zi[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 04:31:19
>>alephn+Eb
Who drives more than 200 miles in a day?
replies(2): >>alephn+jk >>samus+uq
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23. Diogen+Zi[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 04:40:55
>>klipt+ac
Both the public and private insurances are far more regulated in Germany than Obamacare.

If you're on a public insurance in Germany, you rarely pay any substantial copay, and there's no concept of a deductible. Not only that, but the price of the policy is a percentage of your income (capped at some absolute upper limit), so if you make little, you pay little.

Prices paid by public insurers to healthcare providers are fixed, and even the private insurers aren't allowed to pay providers more than a certain multiple of the public rate.

In other words, in Germany, the government has a much stronger hand in setting prices for both patients and insurers than under the Obamacare system.

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24. aaomid+7j[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 04:43:00
>>roenxi+Ye
I don’t think you’re really getting incentives here.

For example, countries with socialized healthcare have significantly more walkable and bikeable cities. That’s not a coincidence.

replies(1): >>roenxi+tj
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25. roenxi+tj[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 04:50:53
>>aaomid+7j
That example is silly. It implicitly suggests that if a country suddenly switched to a fully socialised healthcare system their cities would suddenly becoming more walkable. Or if an economy liberalised then their cities would magically become less walkable. The chains of causality there are absurd.

The most plausible link would be if people couldn't afford cars under a socialised healthcare system; but I doubt anyone is going to try and argue that seriously.

replies(1): >>defros+Sj
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26. defros+Sj[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 05:01:00
>>roenxi+tj
> It implicitly suggests that if a country suddenly switched to a fully socialised healthcare system their cities would suddenly becoming more walkable.

No. It does not. Not "suddenly" or "magically".

What does happen is that social health concerns and advice feed back into other public policy making decisions.

Advertising agencies get contracts for campaigns to improve health awareness, walking and biking paths become routine considerations in city planning, etc.

This takes decades to iterate through from non existent to commonplace.

replies(2): >>aaomid+5q >>roenxi+cC
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27. alephn+jk[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 05:07:31
>>Zoomer+zi
Most people don't, but the perception of distances are different in the US versus China.

The average round trip commute in the US is 42 miles [0] versus 11 miles in China [1]. This means the average American needs to charge almost 4x more often. Alternatively, imagine the range anxiety a Chinese driver might have with an EV with a range of 80 km/50 mi.

When you purchase a vehicle, you also take into account edge cases like interregional or intercity travel like roadtrips, family, or business.

Charging infra can get spotty very fast outside of dense regions. With the sheer density that most of China has, you don't have to worry about dead zones as much. Furthermore, that density also means you have alternative options for inter-city transit (eg. Sleeper Buses, Trains) that don't really exist at the frequency needed in the US.

The differences in expected distances also plays a major role in EV design - a number of Chinese EVs at the lower price range (eg. BYD Seagull, Wuling EV) have much smaller trunk sizes compared to Western oriented hatchback EVs like the Nissan Leaf, because there isn't the need or the expectation to do almost all your shopping with your car when high density urban environments allow you to have various options downstairs or rapid delivery (like 1 hour delivery).

Consumer Habits for Chinese are different from Americans, and the model that worked for China doesn't necessarily work for the US. That said, the Chinese style model would work well in similarly dense Western+Central Europe and Japan.

[0] - https://www.axios.com/2024/03/24/average-commute-distance-us...

[1] - http://service.shanghai.gov.cn/sheninfo/specialdetail.aspx?I...

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28. aaomid+5q[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 07:06:22
>>defros+Sj
Yup thank you
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29. samus+uq[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 07:17:21
>>Zoomer+zi
The advantage is flexibility. It is occasionally very useful to be able to drive for far longer than that. It increases competition between petrol/charging stations since people can choose to go to a cheaper one instead. They could also maximise the impact of loading up a full charge/tank at a cheap place.

And there are lots of factors that reduce the range - hilly or mountainous terrain, aircon/heating, number of passengers or load, and driving style.

Longer range also improves security since people don't necessarily have to stop in places where they feel unsafe.

A fast charging solution massively improves things for EV though - gleaning from TA, the battery packs of Chinese EVs seem to be exchanged at charging stations.

replies(1): >>alephn+Rv
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30. alephn+Rv[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 08:36:48
>>samus+uq
> the battery packs of Chinese EVs seem to be exchanged at charging stations.

Nio (a Shanghai firm) is the primary battery swap EV car brand, but by market share (BYD and Tesla) most EV cars in China don't support battery swapping.

That said, Geely, Changan, JAC, and Chery are looking at battery swapping as well in order to differentiate themselves in the Chinese EV market which is dominated by BYD with secondary marketshare for SAIC and Tesla.

Given BYD's dominance in the Chinese EV space, I'm not sure how much market share secondary brands can gain, and this is influencing the mass EV export attempts by Chinese players leading to multiple trade wars as smaller players in the Chinese market who tend to be funded or owned by regional governments are subsidized by those local governments to export abroad and/or start price wars domestically in China.

> A fast charging solution

Battery Management Systems and Battery Chemistry are hard. BYD is a leader in the space because they've been manufacturing batteries for decades (ever used a cellphone in the 2000s or an iPhone before 2016? - it was using a BYD battery)

Other EV players in China not so much.

BYD is basically a battery maker who became an automotive manufacturer, but the other players in the Chinese market are automotive players who don't have the domain experience in battery technology.

replies(1): >>samus+dbb
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31. rich_s+fA[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 09:54:25
>>bobthe+61
I guess that's measured off the entire GDP, divided by the whole working population? I would imagine most of US's GDP comes from services and finance, not manufacturing.

Also if the US makes very expensive widgets, but can't make cars cheaply, it would still show up as high worker productivity. It's not really the same as engineering efficiency per (PPP) dollar.

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32. roenxi+cC[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 10:28:20
>>defros+Sj
Yeah sure. You got any references for this ridiculous linkage of local town planning and healthcare funding scheme?

You might like to check whether the layout of the citys involved were decided on before or after the invention of the car - and the introduction of universal health care - before you post anything. That'll probably come up.

replies(1): >>defros+OC
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33. defros+OC[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 10:38:29
>>roenxi+cC
Quite the attitude you're sporting there sparky.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXoHCDK9kfM

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34. bobthe+on1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 18:08:29
>>presen+of
The average American voter likes parking lot and starts foaming at the mouth when talking about reducing minimums.

The other dirty secret is that government debt is actually very high in China and it’s a bit of a problem. Local and provincial governments in China have very little taxing power and so have been financing via opaque off-balance-sheet shell companies, and the exact number is not known but estimated at $8T. And now local government services are cutting back or even collapsing since the Chinese property market that was the collateral for a lot of this debt is in dire straits. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-debt-crunch/C...

replies(1): >>presen+J72
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35. bobthe+Nn1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 18:11:09
>>alephn+ld
The regional and local support is also a contribution to the giant elephant that is Chinese government local debt, with an estimated $8T of off-the-books debt by the IMF. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-debt-crunch/C...

Given that most of these governments are now in a pinch with this debt, it remains to be seen if this was a good idea.

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36. presen+J72[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-12 03:48:14
>>bobthe+on1
Yeah, therein lies the real problem, America doesn’t do it mostly because those with political influence don’t want to; everything else is face-saving excuses/Americans thinking they’re morally and culturally superior to everyone else despite getting our asses handed to us.

But I’m optimistic that if the federal government could wrest control away from (selfish) local governments and set a national agenda people can get behind, progress will happen. The CHIPS act demonstrated some amount of this, but it can go much farther, both into other industrial verticals but also in reversing dumb local NIMBY policies.

The USA can do this in a more fiscally responsible way than China did if they can get corruption under control. Anyway if there’s anything the USA has a lot of, it’s money.

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37. samus+dbb[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-15 13:29:55
>>alephn+Rv
Thanks for your insight into that market!
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