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[parent] [thread] 15 comments
1. apsec1+(OP)[view] [source] 2024-08-11 01:28:44
I mean, the ultimate reason why the US doesn't have China's electric vehicle policy is that the US is a democracy, and it would be massively unpopular. The median US voter is, like, a 40-something mother in a random suburb of Pennsylvania, who doesn't have a college degree, has a house with a mortgage, and is moderate but doesn't pay much attention to politics. To get Chinese policies enacted in the US, people like that would have to be convinced that mass-producing electric cars was more important than preserving local forests (need 'em for a factory site), paying workers prevailing wage (drives up production costs), keeping gas and ICE car registration cheap (makes electric less competitive), having cheap goods on sale at Walmart (strong currency makes imports cheap but exports expensive), avoiding noise and dust from construction (have to put the power lines somewhere), running a low government deficit (manufacturing subsidies aren't free), etc. There's a lot of trade-offs that people don't want to make.
replies(3): >>alephn+23 >>thauma+94 >>presen+M6
2. alephn+23[view] [source] 2024-08-11 02:16:37
>>apsec1+(OP)
Sprawl is the major difference and a major reason behind range anxiety.

Chinese cities are very very dense, and very new due to urban redevelopment projects in the 2000s-2021. For example, the urban core of Shanghai is around 20 miles end-to-end, so the same size as Wichita end-to-end, yet has a population of around 20mil compared to 350k.

This helps sustain both public transit as well as EVs with minimal range anxiety.

The industrial policy aspect of EVs also helps ofc, but big picture it works with the range and size of Chinese metropolitan areas.

The issue is the sprawl factor simply can't be solved in a country as spread out as the US, so long range batteries (looking at you Idemetsu Kosan and Toyota) or hybrids are the best solution in a sprawly semi-urban environment.

replies(1): >>Zoomer+X9
3. thauma+94[view] [source] 2024-08-11 02:35:50
>>apsec1+(OP)
> To get Chinese policies enacted in the US, people like that would have to be convinced that mass-producing electric cars was more important than [...] keeping gas and ICE car registration cheap (makes electric less competitive)

It's worth noting that car registration in Shanghai was staggeringly expensive before electric cars were a possibility. That's just a continuation of existing Chinese policies; it obviously helps electric cars, but that was no part of the intent of the policy. (I assume the intent was some combination of reducing traffic times and reducing pollution from exhaust.)

replies(2): >>seanmc+o4 >>alephn+J4
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4. seanmc+o4[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 02:39:55
>>thauma+94
Beijing went with a lottery instead of an auction, but a separate lottery pool for electric cars sealed the deal for them in Beijing as well, even before China had a lot of its own options and Tesla built the Shanghai plant, you would see a lot of Model S’s on the road circa 2015-2016.
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5. alephn+J4[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 02:43:28
>>thauma+94
Shanghai's government has a significant stake in a number of EV companies as well - SAIC is owned by Shanghai's government.

The support by local governments is a major factor for the EV boom (along with other booms like renewables).

The mixture of federal, regional, and local support is a fairly critical part of the Chinese development model.

replies(2): >>jimz+D6 >>bobthe+bf1
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6. jimz+D6[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 03:24:56
>>alephn+J4
You say support, I say coercion. There is no federalism in China. It's all mandated, even if the language used is ambiguous enough to be interpreted as voluntary, policy in China is never discretionary when orders come down from above.

(Technically there's no federal government, period. There's just the bureaucracy and the party. The party's leadership determines policy, the bureaucracy carries it out. Local decisionmaking exists when micromanagement reaches its limits, and ultimately it is a system of gap-filling. Or, in a sense, it's a system that the 9th and 10th Amendments of the US Constitution anticipated and therefore needed to be addressed, 200 years early)

replies(1): >>alephn+P7
7. presen+M6[view] [source] 2024-08-11 03:28:16
>>apsec1+(OP)
> people like that would have to be convinced that mass-producing electric cars was more important than preserving local forests

As though there isn’t a glut of underutilized parking lots littering literally every American metro where the local forests were bulldozed decades ago

> paying workers prevailing wage

Subsidies are there to pay for wages and for automation to be less reliant on labor costs, of which China automates waaaay more than the USA does

> running a low government deficit

Industrial subsidies have the potential to pay back far more than the government puts in, and would be much smaller in size than other boondoggles the US government pays for

Honestly I think this is all just excuses and China just took advantage of the incompetence of our leadership to leapfrog us. Since when did Americans not want to be #1?

replies(1): >>bobthe+Me1
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8. alephn+P7[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 03:52:24
>>jimz+D6
> There is no federalism in China

Yes there de facto is, especially due to the post-Mao reforms.

If you want to dig into how Chinese federalism works, I'd recommend these sources [0][1]

[0] - https://cjil.uchicago.edu/print-archive/cooperative-federali...

[1] - https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262534246/how-reform-worked-in-...

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9. Zoomer+X9[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 04:31:19
>>alephn+23
Who drives more than 200 miles in a day?
replies(2): >>alephn+Hb >>samus+Sh
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10. alephn+Hb[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 05:07:31
>>Zoomer+X9
Most people don't, but the perception of distances are different in the US versus China.

The average round trip commute in the US is 42 miles [0] versus 11 miles in China [1]. This means the average American needs to charge almost 4x more often. Alternatively, imagine the range anxiety a Chinese driver might have with an EV with a range of 80 km/50 mi.

When you purchase a vehicle, you also take into account edge cases like interregional or intercity travel like roadtrips, family, or business.

Charging infra can get spotty very fast outside of dense regions. With the sheer density that most of China has, you don't have to worry about dead zones as much. Furthermore, that density also means you have alternative options for inter-city transit (eg. Sleeper Buses, Trains) that don't really exist at the frequency needed in the US.

The differences in expected distances also plays a major role in EV design - a number of Chinese EVs at the lower price range (eg. BYD Seagull, Wuling EV) have much smaller trunk sizes compared to Western oriented hatchback EVs like the Nissan Leaf, because there isn't the need or the expectation to do almost all your shopping with your car when high density urban environments allow you to have various options downstairs or rapid delivery (like 1 hour delivery).

Consumer Habits for Chinese are different from Americans, and the model that worked for China doesn't necessarily work for the US. That said, the Chinese style model would work well in similarly dense Western+Central Europe and Japan.

[0] - https://www.axios.com/2024/03/24/average-commute-distance-us...

[1] - http://service.shanghai.gov.cn/sheninfo/specialdetail.aspx?I...

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11. samus+Sh[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 07:17:21
>>Zoomer+X9
The advantage is flexibility. It is occasionally very useful to be able to drive for far longer than that. It increases competition between petrol/charging stations since people can choose to go to a cheaper one instead. They could also maximise the impact of loading up a full charge/tank at a cheap place.

And there are lots of factors that reduce the range - hilly or mountainous terrain, aircon/heating, number of passengers or load, and driving style.

Longer range also improves security since people don't necessarily have to stop in places where they feel unsafe.

A fast charging solution massively improves things for EV though - gleaning from TA, the battery packs of Chinese EVs seem to be exchanged at charging stations.

replies(1): >>alephn+fn
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12. alephn+fn[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 08:36:48
>>samus+Sh
> the battery packs of Chinese EVs seem to be exchanged at charging stations.

Nio (a Shanghai firm) is the primary battery swap EV car brand, but by market share (BYD and Tesla) most EV cars in China don't support battery swapping.

That said, Geely, Changan, JAC, and Chery are looking at battery swapping as well in order to differentiate themselves in the Chinese EV market which is dominated by BYD with secondary marketshare for SAIC and Tesla.

Given BYD's dominance in the Chinese EV space, I'm not sure how much market share secondary brands can gain, and this is influencing the mass EV export attempts by Chinese players leading to multiple trade wars as smaller players in the Chinese market who tend to be funded or owned by regional governments are subsidized by those local governments to export abroad and/or start price wars domestically in China.

> A fast charging solution

Battery Management Systems and Battery Chemistry are hard. BYD is a leader in the space because they've been manufacturing batteries for decades (ever used a cellphone in the 2000s or an iPhone before 2016? - it was using a BYD battery)

Other EV players in China not so much.

BYD is basically a battery maker who became an automotive manufacturer, but the other players in the Chinese market are automotive players who don't have the domain experience in battery technology.

replies(1): >>samus+B2b
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13. bobthe+Me1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 18:08:29
>>presen+M6
The average American voter likes parking lot and starts foaming at the mouth when talking about reducing minimums.

The other dirty secret is that government debt is actually very high in China and it’s a bit of a problem. Local and provincial governments in China have very little taxing power and so have been financing via opaque off-balance-sheet shell companies, and the exact number is not known but estimated at $8T. And now local government services are cutting back or even collapsing since the Chinese property market that was the collateral for a lot of this debt is in dire straits. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-debt-crunch/C...

replies(1): >>presen+7Z1
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14. bobthe+bf1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-11 18:11:09
>>alephn+J4
The regional and local support is also a contribution to the giant elephant that is Chinese government local debt, with an estimated $8T of off-the-books debt by the IMF. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-debt-crunch/C...

Given that most of these governments are now in a pinch with this debt, it remains to be seen if this was a good idea.

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15. presen+7Z1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-12 03:48:14
>>bobthe+Me1
Yeah, therein lies the real problem, America doesn’t do it mostly because those with political influence don’t want to; everything else is face-saving excuses/Americans thinking they’re morally and culturally superior to everyone else despite getting our asses handed to us.

But I’m optimistic that if the federal government could wrest control away from (selfish) local governments and set a national agenda people can get behind, progress will happen. The CHIPS act demonstrated some amount of this, but it can go much farther, both into other industrial verticals but also in reversing dumb local NIMBY policies.

The USA can do this in a more fiscally responsible way than China did if they can get corruption under control. Anyway if there’s anything the USA has a lot of, it’s money.

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16. samus+B2b[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-08-15 13:29:55
>>alephn+fn
Thanks for your insight into that market!
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