OpenAI made a large commitment to super-alignment in the not-so-distant past. I beleive mid-2023. Famously, it has always taken AI Safety™ very seriously.
Regardless of anyone's feelings on the need for a dedicated team for it, you can chalk to one up as another instance of OpenAI cough leadership cough speaking out of both sides of it's mouth as is convenient. The only true north star is fame, glory, and user count, dressed up as humble "research"
To really stress this: OpenAI's still-present cofounder shared yesterday on a podcast that they expect AGI in ~2 years and ASI (superpassing human intelligence) by end of the decade.
What's his track record on promises/predictions of this sort? I wasn't paying attention until pretty recently.
Link? Is the ~2 year timeline a common estimate in the field?
That programme aired in the 1980's. Other than vested promises is there much to indicate it's close at all? Empty promises aside there isn't really any indication of that being likely at all.
> I don't think it's going to happen next year, it's still useful to have the conversation and maybe it's like two or three years instead.
This doesn't seem like a super definite prediction. The "two or three" might have just been a hypothetical.
AI experts who aren't riding the hype train and getting high off of its fumes acknowledge that true AI is something we'll likely not see in our lifetimes.
I suspect there will be at least continued commercial use of the current tech, though I still suspect this crop is another dead end in the hunt for AGI.
Personally I'm not seeing that the path we're on leads to whatever that is, either. But I think/hope I'll know if I'm wrong when it's in front of me.
It's better and quicker search at present for the area I specialise in.
It's not currently even close to being a x2 multiplier for me, it possibly even a negative impact, probably not but I'm still exploring. Which feels detached from the promises. Interesting but at present more hype than hyper. Also, it's energy inefficient so cost heavy. I feel that will likely cripple a lot of use cases.
What's your take?
Incredulous reactions don't aid whatever you intend to communicate - there's a reason why everyone knows what AI the last 12 months, it's not made up or a monoculture. It would be very odd to expect discontinuation of commercial use without a black swan event