zlacker

[parent] [thread] 7 comments
1. jasonf+(OP)[view] [source] 2024-05-17 23:45:35
To really stress this: OpenAI's still-present cofounder shared yesterday on a podcast that they expect AGI in ~2 years and ASI (superpassing human intelligence) by end of the decade.

What's his track record on promises/predictions of this sort? I wasn't paying attention until pretty recently.

replies(2): >>refulg+9 >>NomDeP+82
2. refulg+9[view] [source] 2024-05-17 23:47:30
>>jasonf+(OP)
honestly, I hadn't heard of him until 24-48 hours ago :x (he's also the new superalignment lead, I can't remember if I heard that first, or the podcast stuff first. Dwarkesh Patel podcast for anyone curious. Only saw a clip of it)
3. NomDeP+82[view] [source] 2024-05-18 00:07:12
>>jasonf+(OP)
As a child I used to watch a TV programme called Tomorrows World. On it they predicted these very same things in similar timeframes.

That programme aired in the 1980's. Other than vested promises is there much to indicate it's close at all? Empty promises aside there isn't really any indication of that being likely at all.

replies(2): >>zdragn+m5 >>Davidz+b7
◧◩
4. zdragn+m5[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-05-18 00:41:07
>>NomDeP+82
In the early 1980's we were just coming out of the first AI winter and everyone was getting optimistic again.

I suspect there will be at least continued commercial use of the current tech, though I still suspect this crop is another dead end in the hunt for AGI.

replies(1): >>NomDeP+7A
◧◩
5. Davidz+b7[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-05-18 01:03:48
>>NomDeP+82
are we living in the same world?????
replies(2): >>NomDeP+Uz >>refulg+ON1
◧◩◪
6. NomDeP+Uz[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-05-18 08:51:04
>>Davidz+b7
I would assume so. I've spent some time looking into AI for software development and general use and I'm both slightly impressed and at the same time don't really get the hype.

It's better and quicker search at present for the area I specialise in.

It's not currently even close to being a x2 multiplier for me, it possibly even a negative impact, probably not but I'm still exploring. Which feels detached from the promises. Interesting but at present more hype than hyper. Also, it's energy inefficient so cost heavy. I feel that will likely cripple a lot of use cases.

What's your take?

◧◩◪
7. NomDeP+7A[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-05-18 08:55:13
>>zdragn+m5
I'd agree with the commercial use element. It will definitely find areas that it can be applied. Just currently it's general application by a lot of the user base feel more like early Facebook apps or subjectively better Lotus Notes than an actual leap forward of any sort.
◧◩◪
8. refulg+ON1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-05-18 21:15:40
>>Davidz+b7
Yes

Incredulous reactions don't aid whatever you intend to communicate - there's a reason why everyone knows what AI the last 12 months, it's not made up or a monoculture. It would be very odd to expect discontinuation of commercial use without a black swan event

[go to top]