zlacker

>To really stress this: OpenAI's still-present cofounder shared yesterday on a podcast that they expect AGI in ~2 years and ASI (superpassing human intelligence) by end of the decade.

Link? Is the ~2 year timeline a common estimate in the field?

>>N0b8ez+(OP)
It's the "fusion in 20 years" of AI?

>>N0b8ez+(OP)
https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/john-schulman

>>N0b8ez+(OP)
They can't even clearly define a test of "AGI" I seriously doubt they're going to reach it in two years. Alternatively, they could define a fairly trivial test and reach it last year.

>>ctoth+z
Is the quote you're thinking of the one at 19:11?

> I don't think it's going to happen next year, it's still useful to have the conversation and maybe it's like two or three years instead.

This doesn't seem like a super definite prediction. The "two or three" might have just been a hypothetical.

>>N0b8ez+(OP)
We can't even get self-driving down in 2 years, we're nowhere near reaching general AI.

AI experts who aren't riding the hype train and getting high off of its fumes acknowledge that true AI is something we'll likely not see in our lifetimes.

>>heavys+T3
Can you give some examples of experts saying we won't see it in our lifetime?

>>Curiou+m1
I feel like we'll know it when we see it. Or at least, significant changes will happen even if people still claim it isn't really The Thing.

Personally I'm not seeing that the path we're on leads to whatever that is, either. But I think/hope I'll know if I'm wrong when it's in front of me.

>>dboreh+i
Just like Tesla "FSD" :-)

>>heavys+T3
Is true AI the new true Scotsman?

>>N0b8ez+Z2
Right at the end of the interview Schulman says that he expects AGI to be able to replace himself in 5 years. He seemed a bit sheepish when saying it, so hard to tell if he really believed it, or if was just saying what he'd been told to say (I can't believe Altman is allowing employees to be interviewed like this without telling them what they can't say, and what they should say).