I hear 1.5 C, 2 C all the time, but not much is happening [1] so I am looking for a best estimate to what should I expect in 2030, 2040 and 2050; not that 1.5 is "technicaly possible" cause it's practically impossible.
[1] https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/12/12/analysis/co2-vs-...
Today’s models predict 1.5°-2.0° C by 2040, and 4° C by 2100 if no additional climate mitigations (not even promised or pledged) are implemented. The 4° C scenario is generally regarded as unrealistic so most climate models have another prediction which accounts for some additional climate mitigation which most countries have promised and pledged and put the increase at 2°-3° in 2100.
The people who care are freaking out. The ones intent on denying it at all costs are sufficient to prevent them from doing anything about it.
Climate optimists will have you believe that 2-3° is actually not that bad, however I believe this sort of climate optimism amounts to climate denial, 2-3° is definitely a horror scenario effectively destroying our current way of life. Millions of people will die, millions more will be forced to flee—and they won’t be accepted as refugees, wars will break out, our economy will collapse, and the poor will starve in a 2-3° scenario.
Here you go: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change#/media/File:Gre...
Searched for a Wikipedia article called global warming -> automatic redirect to climate change article -> scroll through different graphs et voila, found this one
Why? It sounds like you might mean that, by about +2 °C (~double today's avg warming) we start to notice the impacts a little too acutely and take more action, am I reading that right?
That said, I'm under no disillusion that 2° C warming is not a horror scenario and that if governments actually cared about human lives they would limit warming to 1.5° I know they don't and the won't
> It is not unreasonable to assume that governments will follow through with at least some of their promises and pledges
FWIW, it actually looks like we're on a path to 2.5-2.9 °C of warming with current policies, and nearly another 1°C reduction with current pledges which are indeed much less likely to fully materialise. Via https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change#/media/File:Gre... which appears to use 2021 data. The "no climate policies" scenario is shown as having the lower error margin actually above +4°C
[1] https://climatetippingpoints.info/2022/09/09/climate-tipping...
There's another possibility. Society will adapt and things won't be nightmarish, because 2-3° warming isn't extreme enough to break down society, when people will have decades to adapt.
I guess it's also unpleasant to know. I can't change tipping points anyway, I'm already pushing for change as hard as I personally can without becoming a hermit or similar
We have barely reached 1.5° C and people are already dying by the thousands, people are already fleeing by thousands more—and people are already not accepted as refugees. There are entire areas which are become more and more inhospitably which are experiencing disproportionately more famines, coups, and even wars (namely the Sahel region in Africa).
Yes I am a climate doomer, but I believe doomerism is the reasonable reaction to our climate reality.
This is true, I actually used 2° C as a shorthand for 2° C - 3° C. I shouldn’t have done that. I actually believe we are more likely to be closer to 3° C at the end of this century than 2° C.
At 2 C a cascade of tipping points might start:
https://climatetippingpoints.info/2022/09/09/climate-tipping...
