zlacker

It sounds like the only reason why the 4 degree Celsius scenario is deemed unrealistic is that people don’t like it. So they have come up with hopium about as of yet imaginary solutions and veracity of carbon pledges.

>>jgilia+(OP)
I think I agree with you. 4° is much more likely IMO than 1.5° given how governments tend to align them selves with the interest of the rich above all else. However I think at some point continuing climate inaction will not only become politically infeasible but also economically infeasible. However at that point we will have acted to little too late, and will be looking at a 2-3° warming.

Climate optimists will have you believe that 2-3° is actually not that bad, however I believe this sort of climate optimism amounts to climate denial, 2-3° is definitely a horror scenario effectively destroying our current way of life. Millions of people will die, millions more will be forced to flee—and they won’t be accepted as refugees, wars will break out, our economy will collapse, and the poor will starve in a 2-3° scenario.

>>runarb+sb
How do you know all that will happen in your second paragraph? Is there a model making such a prediction for society in the 2-3° scenario? If skeptics of such societal projections are denialists, then are you a doomer?

There's another possibility. Society will adapt and things won't be nightmarish, because 2-3° warming isn't extreme enough to break down society, when people will have decades to adapt.

>>goatlo+rt
> How do you know all that will happen in your second paragraph?

We have barely reached 1.5° C and people are already dying by the thousands, people are already fleeing by thousands more—and people are already not accepted as refugees. There are entire areas which are become more and more inhospitably which are experiencing disproportionately more famines, coups, and even wars (namely the Sahel region in Africa).

Yes I am a climate doomer, but I believe doomerism is the reasonable reaction to our climate reality.

>>goatlo+rt
2-3 C will probably break society. I have heard opinions about Earth's carrying capacity being 1B people at 4C, imagine that possibility.

At 2 C a cascade of tipping points might start:

https://climatetippingpoints.info/2022/09/09/climate-tipping...