zlacker

>>Brajes+(OP)
Is there a site showing our socioeconomical possibilities and coutries' carbon-heavy investments that are in the pipeline?

I hear 1.5 C, 2 C all the time, but not much is happening [1] so I am looking for a best estimate to what should I expect in 2030, 2040 and 2050; not that 1.5 is "technicaly possible" cause it's practically impossible.

[1] https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/12/12/analysis/co2-vs-...

>>badten+Si
In 1990, the U.S. Navy predicted that the Earth would warm as much as 4 degrees Celsius by 2040 https://documents.theblackvault.com/documents/weather/climat...

>>nebrie+lk
And that was a reasonable prediction at that time. Since than climate models have improved significantly, computing power has increased by several orders of magnitude, and policies and technology has changed—both as a response to the climate crises, and as technology and infrastructure improves around the world.

Today’s models predict 1.5°-2.0° C by 2040, and 4° C by 2100 if no additional climate mitigations (not even promised or pledged) are implemented. The 4° C scenario is generally regarded as unrealistic so most climate models have another prediction which accounts for some additional climate mitigation which most countries have promised and pledged and put the increase at 2°-3° in 2100.

>>runarb+Kq
It sounds like the only reason why the 4 degree Celsius scenario is deemed unrealistic is that people don’t like it. So they have come up with hopium about as of yet imaginary solutions and veracity of carbon pledges.

>>jgilia+4x
I think I agree with you. 4° is much more likely IMO than 1.5° given how governments tend to align them selves with the interest of the rich above all else. However I think at some point continuing climate inaction will not only become politically infeasible but also economically infeasible. However at that point we will have acted to little too late, and will be looking at a 2-3° warming.

Climate optimists will have you believe that 2-3° is actually not that bad, however I believe this sort of climate optimism amounts to climate denial, 2-3° is definitely a horror scenario effectively destroying our current way of life. Millions of people will die, millions more will be forced to flee—and they won’t be accepted as refugees, wars will break out, our economy will collapse, and the poor will starve in a 2-3° scenario.

>>runarb+wI
How do you know all that will happen in your second paragraph? Is there a model making such a prediction for society in the 2-3° scenario? If skeptics of such societal projections are denialists, then are you a doomer?

There's another possibility. Society will adapt and things won't be nightmarish, because 2-3° warming isn't extreme enough to break down society, when people will have decades to adapt.