zlacker

>>Brajes+(OP)
Is there a site showing our socioeconomical possibilities and coutries' carbon-heavy investments that are in the pipeline?

I hear 1.5 C, 2 C all the time, but not much is happening [1] so I am looking for a best estimate to what should I expect in 2030, 2040 and 2050; not that 1.5 is "technicaly possible" cause it's practically impossible.

[1] https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/12/12/analysis/co2-vs-...

>>badten+Si
In 1990, the U.S. Navy predicted that the Earth would warm as much as 4 degrees Celsius by 2040 https://documents.theblackvault.com/documents/weather/climat...

>>nebrie+lk
And that was a reasonable prediction at that time. Since than climate models have improved significantly, computing power has increased by several orders of magnitude, and policies and technology has changed—both as a response to the climate crises, and as technology and infrastructure improves around the world.

Today’s models predict 1.5°-2.0° C by 2040, and 4° C by 2100 if no additional climate mitigations (not even promised or pledged) are implemented. The 4° C scenario is generally regarded as unrealistic so most climate models have another prediction which accounts for some additional climate mitigation which most countries have promised and pledged and put the increase at 2°-3° in 2100.

>>runarb+Kq
> The 4° C scenario is generally regarded as unrealistic

Why? It sounds like you might mean that, by about +2 °C (~double today's avg warming) we start to notice the impacts a little too acutely and take more action, am I reading that right?