zlacker

[parent] [thread] 158 comments
1. n_u+(OP)[view] [source] 2026-02-02 23:40:58
A former NASA engineer with a PhD in space electronics who later worked at Google for 10 years wrote an article about why datacenters in space are very technically challenging:

https://taranis.ie/datacenters-in-space-are-a-terrible-horri...

I don't have any specialized knowledge of the physics but I saw an article suggesting the real reason for the push to build them in space is to hedge against political pushback preventing construction on Earth.

I can't find the original article but here is one about datacenter pushback:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-08-20/ai-and...

But even if political pushback on Earth is the real reason, it still seems datacenters in space are extremely technically challenging/impossible to build.

replies(13): >>taurat+r >>edhela+d1 >>jaimex+mj >>YetAno+fo >>bandra+9p >>sejje+Yr >>onlyre+sw >>999900+gy >>moomoo+bz >>spikel+SH >>lpcvoi+uZ >>bgnn+W11 >>Ajedi3+ee2
2. taurat+r[view] [source] 2026-02-02 23:43:14
>>n_u+(OP)
We don’t even have a habitable structure in space when the ISS falls, there is no world in which space datacenters are a thing in the next 10, I’d argue even 30 years. People really need to ground themselves in reality.

Edit: okay Tiangong - but that is not a data center.

replies(6): >>nickff+S >>TheBli+x2 >>tzs+c6 >>IX-103+o7 >>JumpCr+Tc >>rlt+lR
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3. nickff+S[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-02 23:44:56
>>taurat+r
Who is “we”? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiangong_space_station
replies(1): >>taurat+55
4. edhela+d1[view] [source] 2026-02-02 23:46:17
>>n_u+(OP)
"Technically challenging", a nice way to say "impossible"
replies(1): >>boxede+p6
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5. TheBli+x2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-02 23:52:31
>>taurat+r
Ok then short SpaceX stock when it IPOs.
replies(5): >>taurat+s5 >>Sohcah+ib >>techbl+Nu >>Camper+wE >>int0x2+7T
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6. taurat+55[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 00:04:41
>>nickff+S
Good point. Still a long, long way from data centers.
replies(1): >>whamla+682
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7. taurat+s5[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 00:07:09
>>TheBli+x2
What does stock price have to do with anything?

That someone could put a data center in space for the price of 100 years of eliminating world hunger doesn’t mean shit.

replies(1): >>satvik+b9
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8. tzs+c6[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 00:10:16
>>taurat+r
I don't think any of the companies that say they are working on space data centers intend them to be habitable.
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9. boxede+p6[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 00:11:43
>>edhela+d1
Just like rockets landing themselves
replies(2): >>sollew+n9 >>techbl+5v
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10. IX-103+o7[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 00:18:16
>>taurat+r
I don't know, 10 years seems reasonable for development. There's not that much new technology that needs to be developed. Cooling and communications would just require minor changes to existing designs. Other systems may be able to be lifted wholesale with minimal integration. I think if there were obstacles to building data centers on the ground then we might see them in orbit within the next ten years.

I don't see those obstacles appearing though.

replies(2): >>doctor+Vk >>Sidebu+z31
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11. satvik+b9[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 00:29:12
>>taurat+s5
People always make this claim about world hunger elimination with no sources. Keep in mind we make more than enough calories to feed everyone on the planet many times over, it's a problem of distribution, of getting the food to the right areas and continuing cultivation for self sufficiency.
replies(1): >>taurat+3d
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12. sollew+n9[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 00:30:32
>>boxede+p6
No, rockets landing themselves is just controlling the mechanism you use to have them take off, and builds on trust vectoring technology from 1970s jet fighters based on sound physics.

Figuring out how to radiate a lot of waste heat into a vacuum is fighting physics. Ordinarily we use a void on earth as a very effective _insulator_ to keep our hot drinks hot.

replies(4): >>fourse+Ib >>fooker+Wc >>Sparyj+dO >>rlt+aS
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13. Sohcah+ib[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 00:43:22
>>TheBli+x2
As if company performance actually affected stock price when it comes to anything Elon Musk touches.

For fuck's sake, TSLA has a P/E of a whopping *392*. There is zero justification for how overvalued that stock is. In a sane world, I should be able to short it and 10x my money, but people are buying into Musk's hype on FSD, Robotaxi, and whatever the hell robot they're making. Even if you expected them to be successes, they'd need to 20x the company's entire revenue to justify the current market cap.

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14. fourse+Ib[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 00:46:39
>>sollew+n9
His point is that everyone said landing and reusing rockets was impossible and made fun of Elon and SpaceX for years for attempting it.
replies(4): >>Smirki+ji >>myko+Yi >>audunw+2X >>haspok+kZ
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15. JumpCr+Tc[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 00:54:57
>>taurat+r
> We don’t even have a habitable structure in space

Silicon is way more forgiving than biology. This isn’t an argument for this proposal. But there is no technical connection between humans in space and data centers other than launch-cost synergies.

replies(1): >>fluori+Tg
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16. fooker+Wc[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 00:55:12
>>sollew+n9
> Figuring out how to radiate a lot of waste heat into a vacuum is fighting physics.

Radiators should work pretty well, and large solar panels can do double duty as radiators.

Also, curiously, newer GPUs are developed to require significantly less cooling than previous generations. Perhaps not so coincidentally?

replies(2): >>doctor+si >>kristj+Bv
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17. taurat+3d[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 00:55:54
>>satvik+b9
That’s right, it’s an allocation of resources problem, and some people seem to control almost all the resources.
replies(1): >>satvik+mh
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18. fluori+Tg[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 01:19:46
>>JumpCr+Tc
Okay, but a human being represents what, 200 W of power? The ISS has a crew of 3, so that's less than a beefy single user AI workstation at full tilt. If the question is whether it's practical to put 1-2 kW worth of computing power in orbit, the answer is obviously yes, but somehow I don't think that's what's meant by "datacenter in space".
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19. satvik+mh[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 01:23:19
>>taurat+3d
Even the most magnanimous allocators cannot defeat the realities of boots on the ground in terms of distribution. It is a very difficult problem that cannot be solved top down, the only solution we've seen is growth of economic activity via capitalistic means, lifting millions, billions out of poverty as Asia has done in the last century for example.
replies(2): >>lpcvoi+GZ >>taurat+jj1
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20. Smirki+ji[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 01:29:37
>>fourse+Ib
He also said he could save the us a trillion dollars per year with DOGE, and basically just caused a lot data exfiltration and killed hundreds of thousands of people, without saving any money at all
replies(1): >>sejje+us
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21. doctor+si[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 01:30:30
>>fooker+Wc
Well there lies the rub, solar panels already need their own thermal radiators when used in space ...
replies(1): >>fooker+wj
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22. myko+Yi[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 01:34:19
>>fourse+Ib
No, people made fun of Elon for years because he kept attempting it unsafely, skirting regulations and rules, and failing repeatedly in very public ways.

The idea itself was proven by NASA with the DC-X but the project was canceled due to funding. Now instead of having NASA run it we SpaceX pay more than we'd ever have paid NASA for the same thing.

DC-X test flight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gE7XJ5HYQW4

It's awesome that Falcon 9 exists and it is great technology but this guy really isn't the one anyone should want in charge of it.

replies(1): >>kortil+oz
23. jaimex+mj[view] [source] 2026-02-03 01:36:57
>>n_u+(OP)
No one is interested in excuses on why it can't be done. Were in interested in the plan on how they plan to do it.

The guy is saying satellite communication is restricted to 1Gbps ffs. SpaceX is way past that.

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24. fooker+wj[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 01:37:55
>>doctor+si
Great, so you seem to agree the technology exists for this and it is a matter of deploying more of it?
replies(2): >>Daishi+EA >>Numerl+TC
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25. doctor+Vk[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 01:48:14
>>IX-103+o7
The same things you are saying about data centers in space was said by similar people 10-15 years ago when Elon musk said SpaceX would have a man on Mars in 10-15 years.

We have had the tech to do it since the 90's, we just needed to invest into it.

Same thing with Elon Musks hyperloop, aka the atmospheric train (or vactrain) which has been an idea since 1799! And how far has Elon Musks boring company come to building even a test loop?

Yeah, in theory you could build a data center in space. But unless you have a background in the limitations of space engineering/design brings, you don't truly understand what you are saying. A single AI data center server rack takes up the same energy load of 0.3 to 1 international space station. So by saying Elon musk can reasonable achieve this, is wild to anyone who has done any engineering work with space based tech. Every solar panel generates heat, the racks generate heat, the data communication system generates, heat... Every kW of power generated and every kW of power consumes needs a radiator. And it's not like water cooling, you are trying to radiate heat off into a vacuum. That is a technical challenge and size, the amount of tons to orbit needed to do this... Let alone outside of low earth... Its a moonshot project for sure. And like I said above, Elon musk hasnt really followed through with any of his moonshots.

replies(2): >>throwu+rr >>rlt+SR
26. YetAno+fo[view] [source] 2026-02-03 02:07:19
>>n_u+(OP)
> It(Solar) works, but it isn't somehow magically better than installing solar panels on the ground

Umm, if this is the point, I don't know whether to take rest of author's arguments seriously. Solar only works certain time of the day and certain period of year on land.

Also there is so limited calculations for the numbers in the article, while the article throws of numbers left and right.

replies(1): >>jhansc+zC
27. bandra+9p[view] [source] 2026-02-03 02:14:23
>>n_u+(OP)
It's not just "very challenging", it's "very challenging and also solves no actual problem we face".
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28. throwu+rr[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 02:29:55
>>doctor+Vk
> A single AI data center server rack takes up the same energy load of 0.3 to 1 international space station.

The ISS is powered by eight Solar Array Wings. Each wing weighs about 1,050kg. The station also has two radiator wings with three radiator orbital replacement units weighing about 1,100kg each. That's about 15,000 kg total so if the ISS can power three racks, that's 5,000kg of payload per rack not including the rack or any other support structure, shielding, heat distribution like heat pipes, and so on.

Assuming a Falcon Heavy with 60,000 kg payload, that's 12 racks launched for about $100 million. That's basically tripling or quadrupling (at least) the cost of each rack, assuming that's the only extra cost and there's zero maintenance.

replies(2): >>hvb2+q61 >>jpfrom+SS1
29. sejje+Yr[view] [source] 2026-02-03 02:33:06
>>n_u+(OP)
It's not like launching stuff into space doesn't have pushback, either. See: starlink satellites.
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30. sejje+us[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 02:36:48
>>Smirki+ji
Elon Musk killed hundreds of thousands of people?
replies(1): >>Smirki+9u
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31. Smirki+9u[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 02:49:03
>>sejje+us
Yes. Mostly kids, because of the DOGE ransacking of USAID

https://healthpolicy-watch.news/the-human-cost-one-year-afte...

replies(1): >>Alexan+D12
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32. techbl+Nu[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 02:56:04
>>TheBli+x2
Why would you short the stock?
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33. techbl+5v[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 02:58:06
>>boxede+p6
He said impossible, this was done recently, by spacex themselves.
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34. kristj+Bv[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 03:03:01
>>fooker+Wc
1kW TDP chips need LESS cooling?
replies(1): >>fooker+WA
35. onlyre+sw[view] [source] 2026-02-03 03:11:00
>>n_u+(OP)
> A former NASA engineer with a PhD in space electronics who later worked at Google for 10 years wrote an article about why datacenters in space are very technically challenging

It's curious that we live in a world in which I think the majority of people somehow think this ISN'T complicated.

Like, have we long since reached the point where technology is suitably advanced to average people that it seems like magic, where people can almost literally propose companies that just "conjure magic" and the average person thinks that's reasonable?

replies(2): >>jitl+Gy >>solid_+EO
36. 999900+gy[view] [source] 2026-02-03 03:25:48
>>n_u+(OP)
It's much easier to find a country or jurisdiction that doesn't care about a bunch of data centers vs launching them into space.

I don't get why we aren't building mixed use buildings, maybe the first floor can be retail and restaurants, the next two floors can be data centers, and then above that apartments.

replies(5): >>Secret+YC >>kuon+FE >>Tracke+Hn1 >>tech_k+Yv2 >>wat100+3i3
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37. jitl+Gy[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 03:28:44
>>onlyre+sw
you can’t tell me the microwave isn’t magic. it’s magic.
replies(2): >>jasond+eF >>zvqcMM+R02
38. moomoo+bz[view] [source] 2026-02-03 03:33:36
>>n_u+(OP)
Yeah but he’s an expert his opinion can be dismissed bro this is 2026
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39. kortil+oz[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 03:34:52
>>myko+Yi
>Now instead of having NASA run it we SpaceX pay more than we'd ever have paid NASA for the same thing.

This doesn’t pass the smell test given that the cost of launch with spacex is lower than it ever was under ULA.

NASA has never been about cheap launches, just novel technology. Look at the costs of Saturn and SLS to see what happens when they do launch.

replies(1): >>myko+2K2
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40. Daishi+EA[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 03:47:08
>>fooker+wj
You need to understand more of basic physics and thermodynamics. Fighting thermodynamics is a losing race by every measure of what we understand of the physical world.
replies(1): >>fooker+8C
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41. fooker+WA[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 03:49:13
>>kristj+Bv
Yes, Rubin reportedly can deal with running significantly hotter.

That makes radiating a much more practical approach to cooling it.

replies(1): >>kristj+UR
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42. fooker+8C[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 03:58:41
>>Daishi+EA
> Fighting thermodynamics is a losing race

The great thing about your argument is that it can be used in any circumstance!

Cooling car batteries, nope can't possibly work! Thermodynamics!

Refrigerator, are you crazy? You're fighting thermodynamics!

Heat pump! Haah thermodynamics got you.

replies(2): >>queenk+OW >>Daishi+Dw3
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43. jhansc+zC[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 04:02:45
>>YetAno+fo
> Solar only works certain time of the day and certain period of year on land

The same goes for LEO!

replies(1): >>YetAno+MS
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44. Numerl+TC[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 04:06:16
>>fooker+wj
It's a matter of deploying it for cheaper or with fewer downsides than what can be done on earth. Launching things to space is expensive even with reusable rockets, and a single server blade would need a lot of accompanying tech to power it, cool it, and connect to other satellites and earth.

Right now only upsides an expensive satellite acting as a server node would be physical security and avoiding various local environmental laws and effects

replies(1): >>fooker+RM
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45. Secret+YC[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 04:06:55
>>999900+gy
Probably for the same reasons they aren't doing mixed use prison and restaurant buildings.
replies(2): >>shimma+GD >>Camper+fE
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46. shimma+GD[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 04:14:12
>>Secret+YC
What you don't want to live near the newest poisonous abomination that the whiz kids dreamt up? Do you want China to take over America or something?
replies(1): >>zaptre+OS
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47. Camper+fE[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 04:20:09
>>Secret+YC
Mixed-use buildings with restaurants on the lower floors and residential on the upper floors are very common. Not sure what prisons have to do with anything.
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48. Camper+wE[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 04:22:23
>>TheBli+x2
If you're hellbent on arguing with a cult, it will be much cheaper to go down to your local Church of Scientology and try to convince them that their e-meter doesn't work.
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49. kuon+FE[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 04:23:26
>>999900+gy
In Switzerland infomaniak built a data center under apartments and DC heat is used for heating. There are some videos about it.
replies(1): >>999900+rF
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50. jasond+eF[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 04:28:12
>>jitl+Gy
I can put things in a box that uses spooky electromagnetic waves to tickle water molecules to the point that they get hot and maybe boil off, given the chance? Sounds like magic to me
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51. 999900+rF[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 04:29:38
>>kuon+FE
Americans have trouble understanding something like that. We believe anything short of a 3bdrm house with a lawn and backyard is communism.

I'd love to live in a dense city. My office within waking distance. A Cafe in my apartment building, etc.

replies(2): >>petese+t11 >>extrad+l41
52. spikel+SH[view] [source] 2026-02-03 04:51:26
>>n_u+(OP)
Google is currently working on AI data centers in space.

https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/research/go...

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53. fooker+RM[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 05:42:18
>>Numerl+TC
> Right now only upsides ...

You are missing some pretty important upsides.

Lower latency is a major one. And not having to buy land and water to power/cool it. Both are fairly limited as far as resources go, and gets exponentially expensive with competition.

The major downside is, of course, cost. In my opinion, this has never really stopped humans from building and scaling up things until the economies of scale work out.

> connect to other satellites and earth

If only there was a large number of satellites in low earth orbit and a company with expertise building these ;)

replies(2): >>rlt+GS >>flower+cU
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54. Sparyj+dO[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 05:55:19
>>sollew+n9
This is a classic case of listing all the problems but none of the benefits. If you had horses and someone told you they had a Tesla, you'd be complaining that a Tesla requires you to dig minerals where a horse can just be born!
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55. solid_+EO[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 05:58:52
>>onlyre+sw
It's just the thought process that comes with shallow understanding:

    "I can buy a server"
    "We can put things in space"
    "What do you mean I can't get a server in space?!"
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56. rlt+lR[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 06:22:06
>>taurat+r
We also don't have fully reusable launch vehicles, yet. But we will shortly. That will decrease the cost of launch by at least an order of magnitude.

Still there will be a lot of engineering problems to solve.

2-3 years seems very short, but 10 years seems long to me.

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57. rlt+SR[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 06:28:19
>>doctor+Vk
His time estimates are notoriously, um, aggressive. But I think that's part of how his companies are able to accomplish so much. And they do, even if you're upset they haven't put a human on Mars fast enough or built one of his side quests.

"We specialize in making the impossible merely late"

replies(1): >>acdha+2V1
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58. kristj+UR[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 06:28:25
>>fooker+WA
I see what you’re saying - higher design temp radiates better despite more energy overall to dissipate.
replies(1): >>youare+oZ
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59. rlt+aS[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 06:31:18
>>sollew+n9
Figuring out how to radiate a lot of waste heat into a vacuum is just building very large radiators.
replies(1): >>throw3+Bf1
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60. rlt+GS[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 06:36:12
>>fooker+RM
I mostly agree with you, but I don't understand the latency argument. Latency to where?

These satellites will be in a sun-synchronous orbit, so only close to any given location on Earth for a fraction of the day.

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61. YetAno+MS[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 06:37:24
>>jhansc+zC
Most space datacenter plan plans to use sun-synchronous orbit.
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62. zaptre+OS[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 06:37:36
>>shimma+GD
Data centers don't do anything other than sit there and turn electricity into heat. They only emit nothing but heat (which could be useful to others in the building).
replies(3): >>ZeroGr+oX >>NoGrav+MJ1 >>shimma+2P1
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63. int0x2+7T[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 06:39:50
>>TheBli+x2
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes
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64. flower+cU[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 06:50:08
>>fooker+RM
> And not having to buy land and water to power/cool it.

It's interesting that you bring that up as a benfit. If waterless cooling (i.e. closed cooling system) works in space, wouldn't it work even better on Earth?

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65. queenk+OW[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 07:11:17
>>fooker+8C
Actually all of those things agree with the same laws that dictate why data centers can't work in space.

Your examples prove our case. You just must not understand how they work

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66. audunw+2X[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 07:13:10
>>fourse+Ib
The difference is that it was mostly clueless people like Thunderf00t who said it was impossible, who nobody took seriously. I don’t remember that basically all relevant experts claimed it was near impossible with current technology. That’s the situation now.

There’s also fairly clear distinction with how insane Elons plan has become since the first plans he laid for Tesla and SpaceX and the plans he has now. He has clearly become a megalomaniac.

Funnily enough, some of the things people said about Tesla is coming true, because Elon simply got bored of making cars. It’s now plausible that Tesla may die as a car company which I would not have imagined a few years ago. They’re arguably not even winning the self driving and robotics race.

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67. ZeroGr+oX[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 07:15:54
>>zaptre+OS
In America they have "temporary" jet turbines parked next to them burning gas inefficiently with limited oversight on pollution and noise because they are "temporary".
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68. haspok+kZ[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 07:33:04
>>fourse+Ib
> landing and reusing rockets

Currently SpaceX have managed to land the booster only, not the rocket itself, if you are thinking about Starship. And reusability of said rocket is also missing (collecting blown up pieces from the bottom of the ocean doesn't count!).

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69. youare+oZ[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 07:33:42
>>kristj+UR
> I see what you’re saying - higher design temp radiates better despite more energy overall to dissipate.

Yes, running hotter will cause more energy to be radiated.

but

These parts are not at all designed to radiate heat - just look at the surface area of the package with respect to the amount of power they consume.

replies(1): >>kristj+Jb2
70. lpcvoi+uZ[view] [source] 2026-02-03 07:35:20
>>n_u+(OP)
Nice article, the first one. I hope they try it, burn many billions of cash, and then fail. I also hope they don't spread radioactive material across the whole atmosphere when failing, though.
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71. lpcvoi+GZ[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 07:37:18
>>satvik+mh
I argue that if you have literal hundreds of billions of hard cash to burn for stupid things like AI datacenters, you could afford to make the lives of millions of starving people not suck instead, pretty easily so. But to do that, you'd have to try, and that would mean actually doing something good for humanity. Can't have that as a billionaire.
replies(3): >>westpf+331 >>cbeach+to1 >>satvik+e82
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72. petese+t11[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 07:50:56
>>999900+rF
> I'd love to live in a dense city. My office within waking distance. A Cafe in my apartment building, etc.

Then move to one?

73. bgnn+W11[view] [source] 2026-02-03 07:54:14
>>n_u+(OP)
The real reason is, Elon has SpaceX and xAI. He can create an illusion of synergy and orders of magnitude advancements to boost the market cap and pocket all the money. He realized long time ago you don't need to deliver to play the market cap game, in fact it's better if you are selling a story far in the future rather than a something you can deliver now.
replies(4): >>andrub+A31 >>jstumm+s91 >>dubeye+db1 >>dartha+fo1
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74. westpf+331[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 08:03:20
>>lpcvoi+GZ
Ok but what if I shoot a car into space and buy my own social media company. Surely thats a better use of billions!
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75. Sidebu+z31[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 08:06:54
>>IX-103+o7
> Cooling and communications would just require minor changes to existing designs.

"Minor" cooling changes, for a radically different operating environment that does not even have a temperature, is a perfect insulator for conduction and convection, and will actively heat things up via incoming radiation? "Minor" ? Citation very much lacking.

replies(1): >>Doctor+9k1
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76. andrub+A31[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 08:07:00
>>bgnn+W11
exactly. This smells like a way to boost the SpaceX IPO to meme-stock premiums
replies(2): >>disgru+yx1 >>UltraS+4b2
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77. extrad+l41[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 08:12:30
>>999900+rF
The US has district heating systems. The country is very big and varied, as much as people like to paint it as homogenous.
replies(1): >>reaper+Lu1
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78. hvb2+q61[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 08:29:49
>>throwu+rr
Falcon Heavy does not cost 100M when launching 60 metric tons.

At 60 metric tons, you're expending all cores and only getting to LEO. These probably shouldn't be in LEO because they don't need to be and you probably don't want to be expending cores for these launches if you care about cost.

The real problem typically isn't weight, it's volume. Can you fit all of that in that fairing? It's onli 13m long by 5m diameter...

replies(1): >>throwu+5W2
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79. jstumm+s91[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 08:53:19
>>bgnn+W11
I don't understand the claim. SpaceX is literally delivering? And I don't think there is any delusion about that being optional.
replies(3): >>adamma+7i1 >>mortar+ij1 >>theshr+Qv1
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80. dubeye+db1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 09:06:13
>>bgnn+W11
both can be true, he can excel at 'narrative' and also deliver me my Tesla and my starlink, it's not either or
replies(1): >>rob74+7l1
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81. throw3+Bf1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 09:37:03
>>rlt+aS
From what I understand, very, very large radiators every few racks. Almost as much solar panels every few racks. Radiation shielding to avoid transient errors or damage to the hardware. Then some form of propulsion for orbital corrections, I suppose. Then hauling all of this stuff to space (on a high orbit, otherwise they'd be in shade at night), where no maintenance whatsoever is possible. Then watching your hardware progressively fail and/or become obsolete every few years and having to rebuild everything from scratch again.
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82. adamma+7i1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 09:56:19
>>jstumm+s91
The wild claim is that they will deliver data centres in space
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83. mortar+ij1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 10:06:14
>>jstumm+s91
Yeah, delivering using Falcon 9.

The Starship stack? Not so much. It's plagued, and will continue to be plagued, by endless problems. BO will beat them with NG.

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84. taurat+jj1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 10:06:23
>>satvik+mh
You can pay for a lot of people when you have a billion dollars. When you have a trillion, you can move countries.

When someone lives in opulence while the rest of the world burns, the rest of the world doesn’t sit idly.

replies(1): >>djtang+T02
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85. Doctor+9k1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 10:12:53
>>Sidebu+z31
Take the area of solar panels, multiply by 3, thats the area of black body thermal radiation surface. The sattelite will chillax to 27 deg C (300 K):

>>46862869

replies(1): >>Sidebu+tC1
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86. rob74+7l1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 10:19:31
>>dubeye+db1
Ok, he delivered your Tesla and your Starlink, but so far he has hasn't delivered your Robotaxi, your Optimus, your lunar lander, your space datacenter etc. And the list keeps getting longer instead of shorter...
replies(2): >>dubeye+xm1 >>burner+Y52
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87. dubeye+xm1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 10:32:39
>>rob74+7l1
You don't have to win them all.
replies(1): >>kimixa+Ks1
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88. Tracke+Hn1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 10:43:15
>>999900+gy
I think data centers, in the areas where they are most relevant (cold climates), are going to face an uphill battle in the near future.

Where I live, Norway, we've seen that:

1) The data centers don't generate the numbers of jobs they promise. Sure, during building phase, they do generate a lot of business, but during operations and maintenance phase, not so much. Typically these companies will promise hundreds of long-term jobs, while in reality that number is only a fraction.

2) They are extremely power hungry, to the point where households can expect to see their utility bill go up a non-trivial amount. That's for a single data center. In the colder climate areas where data centers are being promoted, power infrastructure might not be able to handle the centers (something seen in northern Norway, for example) at a larger scale, due to decades of stagnation.

3) The environmental effects have come more under scrutiny. And, unfortunately for the companies owning data centers, pretty much all cold-climate western countries have stringent environmental laws.

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89. dartha+fo1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 10:48:50
>>bgnn+W11
What'd be the point of inflating market caps like this when it's obvious they'll crash the moment the owner tries to liquidate any of it before the promises are kept?
replies(2): >>thefou+9u1 >>UltraS+Lb2
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90. cbeach+to1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 10:50:55
>>lpcvoi+GZ
> SPIEGEL: Mr. Shikwati, the G8 summit at Gleneagles is about to beef up the development aid for Africa…

> [Kenyan Economist] Shikwati: … for God’s sake, please just stop.

> SPIEGEL: Stop? The industrialized nations of the West want to eliminate hunger and poverty.

> Shikwati: Such intentions have been damaging our continent for the past 40 years. If the industrial nations really want to help the Africans, they should finally terminate this awful aid. The countries that have collected the most development aid are also the ones that are in the worst shape. Despite the billions that have poured in to Africa, the continent remains poor.

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/kenyan-economics-expert-devel...

replies(1): >>rounce+k04
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91. kimixa+Ks1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 11:26:05
>>dubeye+xm1
He does (or at least a good proportion) if you want to use as precedent for delivering on these promises, though. Especially for the larger more extreme statements and not just buying himself into an existing business.
replies(1): >>dubeye+st1
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92. dubeye+st1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 11:30:26
>>kimixa+Ks1
Why does he?

that's an arbitrary standard set by you.

His investors are quite happy with his success rate. He is constantly building new stuff. And as a consumer who has had great experience with every product I've bought, so am I

replies(1): >>Slarti+5w1
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93. thefou+9u1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 11:34:45
>>dartha+fo1
I think you can get loans in the stock. That’s how “most people” live(and die)
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94. reaper+Lu1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 11:38:48
>>extrad+l41
And district cooling.

When I lived on a chilling grid, my summer AC bill was around $80, while friends whose buildings weren't connected paid $200+.

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95. theshr+Qv1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 11:45:28
>>jstumm+s91
[flagged]
replies(2): >>davidg+1D1 >>blockm+9W1
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96. Slarti+5w1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 11:47:20
>>dubeye+st1
No one buys into Elon's firms because he's expecting dividends.

His investors are not investing because of his success rate in delivering on his promises. His investors are investing exclusively because they believe that stock they buy now will be worth more tomorrow. They all know that's most likely not because Elon delivers anything concrete (because he only does that in what, 20% of cases?), but because Elon rides the hype train harder tomorrow. But they don't care if it's hype or substance, as long as numbers go up.

Elon's investors are happy with his success rate only in terms of continuously generating hype. Which, I have to admit, he's been able to keep up longer now than I ever thought possible.

replies(2): >>dubeye+6F1 >>the_sl+Wy2
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97. disgru+yx1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 11:56:07
>>andrub+A31
I mean, personally I'd probably have invested in SpaceX but it's a hard no with xAI attached.

I'm probably an outlier though.

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98. Sidebu+tC1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 12:27:12
>>Doctor+9k1
And is that "Minor" ? Is that actually practical on a reasonable budget? Aren't there better uses for the solar panels etc?
replies(1): >>Doctor+TD1
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99. davidg+1D1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 12:30:20
>>theshr+Qv1
[flagged]
replies(2): >>tomhow+U02 >>theshr+982
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100. Doctor+TD1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 12:36:35
>>Sidebu+tC1
if you focus on shedding heat and make it sound like an impossibility, don't be surprised when people describe what it would take.
replies(1): >>Sidebu+BF1
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101. dubeye+6F1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 12:45:44
>>Slarti+5w1
Perhaps my marketing background is clouding my view, but have exceptional hyping skills seems quite useful when attracting investment.

And fact is Musk is building a lot of stuff of real substance. The hype to substance ratio isn't quite as important as some choose to beleive

replies(3): >>greggo+0P1 >>pzo+WU1 >>Alexan+rX1
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102. Sidebu+BF1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 12:49:37
>>Doctor+TD1
So that's a "no, no and yes".
replies(1): >>Doctor+rI1
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103. Doctor+rI1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 13:11:13
>>Sidebu+BF1
I don't know what you call minor or major.

I know what physics tells us.

replies(1): >>Sidebu+MS4
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104. NoGrav+MJ1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 13:20:06
>>zaptre+OS
Heat and noise. The noise and the increased electrical bills are the main things people living near data centers complain about.
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105. greggo+0P1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 13:49:54
>>dubeye+6F1
> but have exceptional hyping skills seems quite useful when attracting investment.

Elizabeth Holmes (Theranos) and a lot of ex-crypto-bros (fraudsters) would agree.

"Exceptional hyping skills" is (today) possibly a more derogatory term than you're expecting.

> And fact is Musk is building a lot of stuff of real substance.

I think the point others are making is this is a more accurate description of Musk ~10 years ago. In the past 5 years its been what, the cybertruck?

replies(1): >>dubeye+QS1
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106. shimma+2P1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 13:50:04
>>zaptre+OS
False, come up with new talking points please:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VJT2JeDCyw

If these things were so safe the rich should build them next to their homes.

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107. dubeye+QS1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 14:10:54
>>greggo+0P1
It's a derogatory comment among certain types of technical employee, I would agree. Not so much amongst those in leadership or softer roles.

I wouldn't put cybertruck in the win column personally

replies(2): >>Alexan+0Y1 >>greggo+JH2
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108. jpfrom+SS1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 14:11:09
>>throwu+rr
> Assuming a Falcon Heavy with 60,000 kg payload

Casually six times more than it has ever lifted.

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109. pzo+WU1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 14:21:07
>>dubeye+6F1
Theranos were also hyping a lot and trying to build some stuff. There is some threshold (to be decided where) after which something is more of a fraud than a hype.

Also these days stock market doesn't have much relation to real state of economy - it's in many ways a casino.

replies(1): >>dubeye+J32
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110. acdha+2V1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 14:21:47
>>rlt+SR
I note that their accomplishments tend to be in the past, prior to his Twitter addiction absorbing his attention. Tesla is a solid decade late on FSD, cutting models, and losing market share rapidly thanks to his influencer stunts. SpaceX has a solid government launch business, which is great, but they’ve been struggling with what’s been the next big thing for a while and none of that talk about Mars has made meaningful progress. Boring Company, Neurolink, etc. show no signs of profit anytime soon no matter how cool they sound.

Being ambitious is good to an extent but you need to be able to deliver to keep a company healthy. Right now, if you’re a sharp engineer you are looking at Tesla’s competition if you want to work on a project which doesn’t get cancelled (like it’s cars) and the stock price being hyped to the moon means that options aren’t going to be as competitive.

replies(1): >>rlt+mQ2
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111. blockm+9W1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 14:28:22
>>theshr+Qv1
Yeah yeah, the person you dislike is stupid and the success of his multiple companies is just luck and everybody else does the work.
replies(2): >>theshr+n82 >>UltraS+wb2
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112. Alexan+rX1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 14:35:19
>>dubeye+6F1
> The hype to substance ratio isn't quite as important as some choose to beleive

Musk's ratio is such that his utterances are completely free from actionable information. If he says something, it may or may not happen and even if it does happen the time frame (and cost) is unlikely to be correct.

I don't get why anyone would invest their money on this basis.

replies(1): >>dubeye+Z52
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113. Alexan+0Y1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 14:38:32
>>dubeye+QS1
I think this is why he gets away with it. A "win" is a product delivered years late for 3x the promised MSRP with 1/10th the expected sales. With wins like these, what would count as a loss?
replies(1): >>dubeye+E32
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114. zvqcMM+R02[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 14:51:19
>>jitl+Gy
I think it counts as necromancy. After all it brings frozen hamsters back to life.
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115. djtang+T02[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 14:51:26
>>taurat+jj1
When you have a billion dollars you can't even give each person in China a dollar.
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116. tomhow+U02[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 14:51:27
>>davidg+1D1
Please stop posting these throwaway, sneering replies, no matter how bad the comment you're replying to. Just downvote it, and if you must comment, do so substantively.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

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117. Alexan+D12[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 14:54:18
>>Smirki+9u
Not to be crass, but as much as I dislike Musk US taxpayers are not responsible for the lives of children half a world away. Why is the US the only country held to this standard? No one ever complains that Turkey is killing thousands of children by not funding healthcare initiatives in Africa.
replies(1): >>Smirki+pz2
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118. dubeye+E32[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 15:05:23
>>Alexan+0Y1
He gets away with it for one reason only, and because he consistently delivers good returns on capital.

Most of Tesla's revenue derives from Model Y and FSD subs. I agree that Cybertruck was a marketing ploy. Don't think it was ever intended to be materially revenue generating.

replies(1): >>greggo+pI2
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119. dubeye+J32[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 15:06:00
>>pzo+WU1
Not sure who determines the threshold, he certainly goes to court more than your average person, but these are not start ups, they are large companies under a lot of scrutiny. I don't think the comparison is valid
replies(1): >>wtfwha+EL4
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120. burner+Y52[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 15:15:24
>>rob74+7l1
>Robotaxi, your Optimus, your lunar lander, your space datacenter etc. And the list keeps getting longer instead of shorter...

Lets go through this one by one

[1]Robotaxi. Someone just drove coast to coast USA fully on autopilot. I drive my tesla every day, and i literally NEVER disengage autopilot. It gets me to work and back home without fail, to the grocery store, to literally anywhere i need. Whats not full self driving about that? I got in two crashes before i got my Tesla cause i was a dumb teen, but i'm sure my Tesla is a much better driver than my younger sister. Politically it's not FSD, but in reality, it has been for a while.

[2] Optimus has gone through three revisions and has hand technology that is 5+ years ahead of the competition. Even if they launched it as a consumer product now, i'm sure a million people would buy it just as a cool toy/ gadget. AKA a successfull product.

[3] Lunar Lander Starship, a fully reusable, 2 stage rocket that has gone through 25 revisions and is 95% flight proven and has even deployed dummy starlinks. 10+ years ahead of everyone except maybe stoke.

[4]Space Datacenter Have you ever used starlink? They have all the pieces they need... Elon build a giant datacenter in 6 monmths when it takes 3-4 years usually. He has more compute than anybody and Grok is the most intelligent AI by all the metrics outside googles. Combine that with Starship, which can launch 10X the capacity for 10% of the cost, and what reason do you have to doubt him here?

Granted... it always takes him longer than he says, but he always eventually comes through.

replies(3): >>msie+zi2 >>youare+Ol2 >>SurRea+Vw2
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121. dubeye+Z52[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 15:15:31
>>Alexan+rX1
it's more to do with his track record at creating returns for investors?
replies(1): >>yibg+1v2
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122. whamla+682[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 15:25:41
>>taurat+55
We have 15,000 satellites in orbit that are almost literally the exact same premise currently being proposed - a computer with solar panels attached. We've being doing exactly this for decades.
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123. theshr+982[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 15:25:44
>>davidg+1D1
Source: this HN comment from 2022: >>34012719
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124. satvik+e82[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 15:25:57
>>lpcvoi+GZ
Who has hundreds of billions of hard cash for data centers? All of the AI spending has been in IOUs between Nvidia, OpenAI, Coreweave, etc. And even if you did have hard cash, how will you spend those billions? No one actually seems to have a sound plan, like I said. They just claim it can be done.
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125. theshr+n82[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 15:26:21
>>blockm+9W1
I’m not the source of this information: >>34012719
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126. UltraS+4b2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 15:38:04
>>andrub+A31
That seems to be exactly what the goal is.
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127. UltraS+wb2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 15:39:37
>>blockm+9W1
The product Elon has been most directly involved in is the Cybertruck which is a complete disaster. When talking about Elon you have to specify pre drug addict Elon and ketamine fried brain Elon. The latter makes very bad decisions.
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128. kristj+Jb2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 15:40:25
>>youare+oZ
I think OP was saying hotter part -> hotter radiator attached to the part, not that the part itself will radiate significantly.
replies(1): >>youare+uR3
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129. UltraS+Lb2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 15:40:34
>>dartha+fo1
Rich people use stock as collateral for loans.
130. Ajedi3+ee2[view] [source] 2026-02-03 15:49:58
>>n_u+(OP)
I was skeptical at first for much the same reason the author of that first article is; there are a lot of obstacles. But the more I think about it the less daunting those obstacles seem.

The author uses the power capacity of the ISS's solar panels as a point of comparison, but SpaceX has already successfully deployed many times that capacity in Starlink satellites[1] without even needing to use Starship, and obviously the heat dissipation problem for those satellites has already been solved so there's little point in hand-wringing about that.

The author also worries about ground communication bandwidth, claiming it is "difficult to get much more than about 1Gbps reliably", which seems completely ignorant of the fact that Starlink already has a capacity much greater than that.

The only unsolved technical challenge I see in that article is radiation tolerance. It's unclear how big of a problem that will actually be in practice. But SpaceX probably has more experience with that than anyone other than perhaps NASA so if they think it can be done I don't see much reason to doubt them.

Ultimately I think this is doable from a technical perspective, it's just a question of whether it will be economical. Traditional wisdom would say no even just due to launch costs, but if SpaceX can get Starship working reliably that could alter the equation a lot. We'll see. This could turn out to be a boondoggle, or it could be the next Starlink. The prospect of 24/7 solar power with no need for battery storage or ground infrastructure does seem tempting.

[1]: https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/zzwpue/with_starlin...

replies(1): >>tech_k+Xu2
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131. msie+zi2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 16:06:46
>>burner+Y52
Your note on Optimus does a lot of heavy lifting. He hasn’t sold one yet.
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132. youare+Ol2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 16:20:01
>>burner+Y52
> [1]Robotaxi. Someone just drove coast to coast USA fully on autopilot.

Where's the source for this?

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133. tech_k+Xu2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 16:54:13
>>Ajedi3+ee2
> The author uses the power capacity of the ISS's solar panels as a point of comparison, but SpaceX has already successfully deployed many times that capacity in Starlink satellites[1] without even needing to use Starship,

Your link here isn't really a fair comparison, and also you're still short a factor of 10x. Starlink has deployed 50x the ISS's solar cap across its entire fleet (admittedly 3 years ago); the author's calcs are 500x the ISS for one datacenter.

> and obviously the heat dissipation problem for those satellites has already been solved so there's little point in hand-wringing about that.

This reasoning doesn't make any sense to me, the heat dissipation issues seem very much unresolved. A single Starlink satellite is using power in the order of watts, a datacenter is hitting like O(1/10) of gigawatts. The heat dissipation problem is literally orders of magnitude more difficult for each DC than for their current fleet. This is like saying that your gaming PC will never overheat because NetGear already solved heat dissipation in their routers.

> The author also worries about ground communication bandwidth, claiming it is "difficult to get much more than about 1Gbps reliably", which seems completely ignorant of the fact that Starlink already has a capacity much greater than that.

Don't their current satellites have like 100Gbps capacity max? Do you have any idea how many 100Gbps routers go into connecting a single datacenter to the WAN? Or to each other (since intrahall model training is table stakes these days). They have at most like O(1)Pbps across their entire fleet (based on O(10K) satellites deployed and assuming they have no failover protection). They would need to entirely abandon their consumer base and use their entire fleet to support up/down + interconnections for just 2 or 3 datacenters. They would basically need to redeploy a sizeable chunk of their entire fleet every time they launched a DC.

replies(1): >>Ajedi3+2z2
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134. yibg+1v2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 16:54:37
>>dubeye+Z52
But the returns are based on more hype rather than delivering. It's recursive.
replies(1): >>dubeye+XM2
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135. tech_k+Yv2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 16:59:00
>>999900+gy
> I don't get why we aren't building mixed use buildings, maybe the first floor can be retail and restaurants, the next two floors can be data centers, and then above that apartments.

I mean a DC needs a lot of infrastructure and space. I think the real estate economics in places where people want to live, shop, and eat preclude the kinds of land usage common in DC design. Keep in mind that most DCs are actually like 4 or 5 datahalls tethered together with massive fiber optic networks.

Also people prefer to build parking in those levels that you're proposing to put DCs into.

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136. SurRea+Vw2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 17:03:08
>>burner+Y52
Eventually comes through? Have you forgotten Hyperloop, new roadster, instant battery swaps, tunnels to replace all traffic, your car appreciating in value, your car being used as a robotaxi during downtime to make you money, semi convoys, etc etc?
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137. the_sl+Wy2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 17:12:31
>>Slarti+5w1
Cynics are often right

Optimists are often rich

replies(1): >>kimixa+ob7
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138. Ajedi3+2z2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 17:13:06
>>tech_k+Xu2
> Starlink has deployed 50x the ISS's solar cap across its entire fleet (admittedly 3 years ago); the author's calcs are 500x the ISS for one datacenter.

So 3 years ago they managed to get to 10% of the power budget of one data center by accident, using satellites not explicitly designed for that purpose, using a partially reusable launch platform with 1/10th the payload capacity of Starship. My point is they've already demonstrated they can do this at the scale that's needed.

> A single Starlink satellite is using power in the order of watts

Then why does each satellite have a 6 kW solar array? Re-read that post I linked; the analysis is pretty thorough.

> Don't their current satellites have like 100Gbps capacity max?

Gen 3 is reportedly up to 1 Tbps ground link capacity, for one satellite.[1] There will be thousands.

> Do you have any idea how many 100Gbps routers go into connecting a single datacenter to the WAN? Or to each other (since intrahall model training is table stakes these days).

Intra-satellite connections use the laser links and would not consume any ground link capacity.

You're also ignoring that this is explicitly being pitched as a solution for compute-heavy workloads (AI training and inference) not bandwidth-heavy workloads.

[1]: https://starlink.com/updates/network-update

replies(1): >>tech_k+RE2
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139. Smirki+pz2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 17:14:38
>>Alexan+D12
Not crass, it's a fair point.

It is our money and we're not obligated to give it away if we think it's needed for something else. I'd note though, that in terms of the budget, USAID was like change in the couch cushions and nothing else in the world was even close in terms of lives saved per dollar. Why the man tasked with saving the government trillions of dollars went there at all was nonsensical to begin with.

Nevertheless, it is fully within our rights to pull back aid if we (collectively) decide it's best thing to do. But the only legal way to do that is through the democratic process. Elected can legislators take up the issue, have their debates, and vote.

If congress had canceled these programs through the democratic process, there almost certainly would've been a gradual draw down. Notice and time would be given for other organizations to step in and provide continuity where they could.

And since our aid programs had been so reliable and trusted, in many cases they became a logistics backbone for all sorts of other aid programs and charities. Shutting it all down so abruptly caused widespread disruption far beyond own aid programs. Food rotting in warehouses as people starved. Medications sitting in warehouses while people who needed them urgently died. The absolute waste of life and resources caused by the sudden disruption of the aid is a true atrocity.

Neither Elon or Trump had legal authority to unilaterally destroy those programs outside of the democratic process the way they did, so they are most directly morally responsible for the resulting death.

To add insult-to-injury, Elon was all over twitter justifying all of it with utterly deranged, insane conspiracy theories. He was either lying cynically or is so far gone mentally that he believed them. I'm not sure which is worse.

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140. tech_k+RE2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 17:36:36
>>Ajedi3+2z2
> So 3 years ago they managed to get to 10% of the power budget of one data center by accident, using satellites not explicitly designed for that purpose, using a partially reusable launch platform with 1/10th the payload capacity of Starship. My point is they've already demonstrated they can do this at scale.

How was it by accident? You make it sound like it was easy rather than a total revolution of the space industry? To achieve 1/10th of what they would need for a single DC (and most industry leaders have 5 or 6)? Demonstrating they could generate power at DC scale would be actually standing up a gigawatt of orbital power generation, IMO. And again, this is across thousands of units. They either have to build this capacity all in for a single DC, or somehow consolidate the power from thousands of satellites.

> Then why does each satellite have a 6 kW solar array? Re-read that post I linked; the analysis is pretty thorough.

You're right, my bad. So they're only short like 6 orders of magnitude instead of 9? Still seems massively disingenuous to conclude that they've solved the heat transfer issue.

> Gen 3 is reportedly up to 1 Tbps ground link capacity, for one satellite.[1] There will be thousands.

Okay I'll concede this one, they could probably get the data up and down. What's the latency like?

replies(1): >>Ajedi3+iJ2
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141. greggo+JH2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 17:47:55
>>dubeye+QS1
It's increasingly something the general populace is not a fan of, at least that's been my experience.

so if the cybertruck is not a win, what in the last 5 years is?

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142. greggo+pI2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 17:50:22
>>dubeye+E32
> He gets away with it for one reason only, and because he consistently delivers good returns on capital.

Didn't Tesla just have a terrible 2025, with European sales plunging due to the stigma of owning a swasticar?

replies(1): >>dubeye+s93
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143. Ajedi3+iJ2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 17:53:23
>>tech_k+RE2
> How was it by accident?

I say by accident because high power capacity wasn't a design goal of Starlink, merely a side effect of deploying a communications network.

> My bad. So they're only short like 6 orders of magnitude instead of 9?

No, they're 1 order of magnitude off. (22 MW total capacity of the constellation vs your bar of 100 MW for a single DC.) Again, 3 years ago, using an inferior launch platform, without that even being a design goal.

> What's the latency like?

Starlink latency is quite good, about 30ms round trip for real-world customers on the ground connecting through the constellation to another site on the ground. Sun synchronous orbit would add another ms or two for speed of light delay.

AFAIK nobody outside SpaceX has metrics on intra-satilite latency using the laser links but I have no reason to think it would be materially worse than a direct fiber connection provided the satellites aren't spread out too far. (Starlink sats are very spread out, but you obviously wouldn't do that for a data center.)

replies(1): >>tech_k+wM2
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144. myko+2K2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 17:55:53
>>kortil+oz
SpaceX is heavily subsidized and has extremely lucrative contracts with the US government. Not to mention they get to rely on the public research NASA produces.
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145. tech_k+wM2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 18:05:57
>>Ajedi3+iJ2
> No, they're 1 order of magnitude off. (22 MW total capacity of the constellation vs your bar of 100 MW for a single DC.)

Why on earth would you compare their entire fleet to one project? Power generation trivially parallelizes only if you can transmit power between generation sites. Unless they've figure out how to beam power between satellites the appropriate comparison is 6Kw to 100Mw. And again, the generation is the easy side; the heat dissipation absolutely does not parallelize so that also needs to go by 3-5 orders of mag.

And also: radiation. Terrestrial GPUs are going to be substantially more power and heat efficient than space-based ones (as outlined in TFA). All this for what benefits? An additional 1.4x boost in solar power availability? There's simply no way the unit economics of this work out. Satellite communications have fundamental advantages over terrestrial networks if you can get the launch economics right. Orbital DCs have only the solar availability thing; everything else is cheaper and easier on land.

replies(1): >>Ajedi3+bO2
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146. dubeye+XM2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 18:07:03
>>yibg+1v2
Some combination of the two, for sure. doesn't mean that Musk can't keep doing it. however you describe it or define it, it's a proven strategy at this point. I'm not sure Larry knew how Musk would make him good on Twitter, but he knew enough about Musk to be confident it would happen.
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147. Ajedi3+bO2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 18:11:12
>>tech_k+wM2
Why wouldn't you compare to the entire fleet? You think they're going to deploy an entire data center in one sat? That'd be as dumb as trying to deploy an entire data center in one rack back on Earth. Of course if you frame the problem that way it seems impossible.

I already gave my thoughts on radiation and economics in my original comment. I agree those could be significant challenges, but ones SpaceX has a plausible path to solving. Starship in particular will be key on the economic side; I find it very unlikely they'll be able to make the math work with just Falcon 9. Even with Starship it might not work out.

And it's not just a 1.4x boost in solar power availability. You also eliminate the need for batteries to maintain power during the night or cloudy days (or cloudy weeks), and the need for ground infrastructure (land, permitting, buildings, fire suppression systems, parking lots, physical security, utility hook-up, etc).

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148. rlt+mQ2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 18:19:51
>>acdha+2V1
I agree he leans into the hype aggressively, and spends too much time on Twitter, but they are making progress regardless.

Starlink is growing rapidly.

Starship has been making steady progress.

Neuralink is helping ~12 real people with spinal cord injuries/ALs.

Optimus seems to be making progress.

Tesla is beginning to roll out robotaxis without safety drivers.

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149. throwu+5W2[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 18:40:23
>>hvb2+q61
Good point on the fairing volume. All of the solar array wings were launched from the shuttle.

I was being charitable on the back of the napkin math.

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150. dubeye+s93[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 19:32:52
>>greggo+pI2
Revenue has flatlined, but investors' confidence comes from Musk's track record for delivering good returns to investors. I think we can agree Musk succeeded in 2020 to 2025 in this regard. Whether you are confident he can do it again over next five years is the key question.
replies(1): >>greggo+sK3
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151. wat100+3i3[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 20:12:48
>>999900+gy
The cost per square foot goes up as you add more floors. Construction goes multi-story to save space where land is expensive. But data centers don't need to be in places where land is expensive.
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152. Daishi+Dw3[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 21:23:39
>>fooker+8C
I guess you _really_ don't understand how thermodynamics works. Call me back when you think you can get better efficiency than a Carnot engine.
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153. greggo+sK3[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 22:36:14
>>dubeye+s93
I'm personally more persuaded by the argument that Tesla is a meme-stock at this point - like much of crypto, it runs on "vibes", not solid fundamentals.

But even if share price is the metric for success, 33.6% over 5 years is like 6% compounded annually, which is okay I guess? [0]

[0] https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-seven-stocks-840226...

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154. youare+uR3[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-03 23:15:33
>>kristj+Jb2
> I think OP was saying hotter part -> hotter radiator attached to the part, not that the part itself will radiate significantly.

Hmm, surely the radiator can run at arbitrary temperatures w.r.t. the objects being cooled? I'm assuming heat pump etc is already part of the design.

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155. rounce+k04[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-04 00:04:05
>>cbeach+to1
It’s somewhat ironic that the way it has been framed here is as lacking in nuanced understanding as the style of aid which Shikwati argued against in the full interview. Unsurprising we should get a snippet cropped by a right wing libertarian think-tank in such a way that it boils down to simply “hurr aid bad”.
replies(1): >>cbeach+W05
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156. wtfwha+EL4[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-04 06:37:11
>>dubeye+J32
>Not sure who determines the threshold

The SEC.

>he certainly goes to court more than your average person

Yes because he sues a lot of entities for silly things such as some advertisers declining to buy ads that display next to pro-hitler posts, or news outlets for posting unaltered screenshots of a social media site he acquired.

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157. Sidebu+MS4[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-04 07:42:30
>>Doctor+rI1
>I don't know what you call minor

Then you picked the wrong thread to insert yourself, it's literally about that.

Which is funny, there are multiple other replies to you, explaining at length that while your ideas are physically possible, they are completely impractical. And yet you think they still could be "minor".

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158. cbeach+W05[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-04 08:45:34
>>rounce+k04
As always with Marxism, you’re convinced that your flavour of Marxism is new, and will work despite all flavours of Marxism failing in the past.
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159. kimixa+ob7[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-02-04 20:50:18
>>the_sl+Wy2
I feel that Cynics are often average.

Optimists are either rich, or destitute. And though you probably hear more about the richer parts, that doesn't mean they're more common.

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