zlacker

The real reason is, Elon has SpaceX and xAI. He can create an illusion of synergy and orders of magnitude advancements to boost the market cap and pocket all the money. He realized long time ago you don't need to deliver to play the market cap game, in fact it's better if you are selling a story far in the future rather than a something you can deliver now.

>>bgnn+(OP)
exactly. This smells like a way to boost the SpaceX IPO to meme-stock premiums

>>bgnn+(OP)
I don't understand the claim. SpaceX is literally delivering? And I don't think there is any delusion about that being optional.

>>bgnn+(OP)
both can be true, he can excel at 'narrative' and also deliver me my Tesla and my starlink, it's not either or

>>jstumm+w7
The wild claim is that they will deliver data centres in space

>>jstumm+w7
Yeah, delivering using Falcon 9.

The Starship stack? Not so much. It's plagued, and will continue to be plagued, by endless problems. BO will beat them with NG.

>>dubeye+h9
Ok, he delivered your Tesla and your Starlink, but so far he has hasn't delivered your Robotaxi, your Optimus, your lunar lander, your space datacenter etc. And the list keeps getting longer instead of shorter...

>>rob74+bj
You don't have to win them all.

>>bgnn+(OP)
What'd be the point of inflating market caps like this when it's obvious they'll crash the moment the owner tries to liquidate any of it before the promises are kept?

>>dubeye+Bk
He does (or at least a good proportion) if you want to use as precedent for delivering on these promises, though. Especially for the larger more extreme statements and not just buying himself into an existing business.

>>kimixa+Oq
Why does he?

that's an arbitrary standard set by you.

His investors are quite happy with his success rate. He is constantly building new stuff. And as a consumer who has had great experience with every product I've bought, so am I

>>dartha+jm
I think you can get loans in the stock. That’s how “most people” live(and die)

>>jstumm+w7
[flagged]

>>dubeye+wr
No one buys into Elon's firms because he's expecting dividends.

His investors are not investing because of his success rate in delivering on his promises. His investors are investing exclusively because they believe that stock they buy now will be worth more tomorrow. They all know that's most likely not because Elon delivers anything concrete (because he only does that in what, 20% of cases?), but because Elon rides the hype train harder tomorrow. But they don't care if it's hype or substance, as long as numbers go up.

Elon's investors are happy with his success rate only in terms of continuously generating hype. Which, I have to admit, he's been able to keep up longer now than I ever thought possible.

>>andrub+E1
I mean, personally I'd probably have invested in SpaceX but it's a hard no with xAI attached.

I'm probably an outlier though.

>>theshr+Ut
[flagged]

>>Slarti+9u
Perhaps my marketing background is clouding my view, but have exceptional hyping skills seems quite useful when attracting investment.

And fact is Musk is building a lot of stuff of real substance. The hype to substance ratio isn't quite as important as some choose to beleive

>>dubeye+aD
> but have exceptional hyping skills seems quite useful when attracting investment.

Elizabeth Holmes (Theranos) and a lot of ex-crypto-bros (fraudsters) would agree.

"Exceptional hyping skills" is (today) possibly a more derogatory term than you're expecting.

> And fact is Musk is building a lot of stuff of real substance.

I think the point others are making is this is a more accurate description of Musk ~10 years ago. In the past 5 years its been what, the cybertruck?

>>greggo+4N
It's a derogatory comment among certain types of technical employee, I would agree. Not so much amongst those in leadership or softer roles.

I wouldn't put cybertruck in the win column personally

>>dubeye+aD
Theranos were also hyping a lot and trying to build some stuff. There is some threshold (to be decided where) after which something is more of a fraud than a hype.

Also these days stock market doesn't have much relation to real state of economy - it's in many ways a casino.

>>theshr+Ut
Yeah yeah, the person you dislike is stupid and the success of his multiple companies is just luck and everybody else does the work.

>>dubeye+aD
> The hype to substance ratio isn't quite as important as some choose to beleive

Musk's ratio is such that his utterances are completely free from actionable information. If he says something, it may or may not happen and even if it does happen the time frame (and cost) is unlikely to be correct.

I don't get why anyone would invest their money on this basis.

>>dubeye+UQ
I think this is why he gets away with it. A "win" is a product delivered years late for 3x the promised MSRP with 1/10th the expected sales. With wins like these, what would count as a loss?

>>davidg+5B
Please stop posting these throwaway, sneering replies, no matter how bad the comment you're replying to. Just downvote it, and if you must comment, do so substantively.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

>>Alexan+4W
He gets away with it for one reason only, and because he consistently delivers good returns on capital.

Most of Tesla's revenue derives from Model Y and FSD subs. I agree that Cybertruck was a marketing ploy. Don't think it was ever intended to be materially revenue generating.

>>pzo+0T
Not sure who determines the threshold, he certainly goes to court more than your average person, but these are not start ups, they are large companies under a lot of scrutiny. I don't think the comparison is valid

>>rob74+bj
>Robotaxi, your Optimus, your lunar lander, your space datacenter etc. And the list keeps getting longer instead of shorter...

Lets go through this one by one

[1]Robotaxi. Someone just drove coast to coast USA fully on autopilot. I drive my tesla every day, and i literally NEVER disengage autopilot. It gets me to work and back home without fail, to the grocery store, to literally anywhere i need. Whats not full self driving about that? I got in two crashes before i got my Tesla cause i was a dumb teen, but i'm sure my Tesla is a much better driver than my younger sister. Politically it's not FSD, but in reality, it has been for a while.

[2] Optimus has gone through three revisions and has hand technology that is 5+ years ahead of the competition. Even if they launched it as a consumer product now, i'm sure a million people would buy it just as a cool toy/ gadget. AKA a successfull product.

[3] Lunar Lander Starship, a fully reusable, 2 stage rocket that has gone through 25 revisions and is 95% flight proven and has even deployed dummy starlinks. 10+ years ahead of everyone except maybe stoke.

[4]Space Datacenter Have you ever used starlink? They have all the pieces they need... Elon build a giant datacenter in 6 monmths when it takes 3-4 years usually. He has more compute than anybody and Grok is the most intelligent AI by all the metrics outside googles. Combine that with Starship, which can launch 10X the capacity for 10% of the cost, and what reason do you have to doubt him here?

Granted... it always takes him longer than he says, but he always eventually comes through.

>>Alexan+vV
it's more to do with his track record at creating returns for investors?

>>davidg+5B
Source: this HN comment from 2022: >>34012719

>>blockm+dU
I’m not the source of this information: >>34012719

>>andrub+E1
That seems to be exactly what the goal is.

>>blockm+dU
The product Elon has been most directly involved in is the Cybertruck which is a complete disaster. When talking about Elon you have to specify pre drug addict Elon and ketamine fried brain Elon. The latter makes very bad decisions.

>>dartha+jm
Rich people use stock as collateral for loans.

>>burner+241
Your note on Optimus does a lot of heavy lifting. He hasn’t sold one yet.

>>burner+241
> [1]Robotaxi. Someone just drove coast to coast USA fully on autopilot.

Where's the source for this?

>>dubeye+341
But the returns are based on more hype rather than delivering. It's recursive.

>>burner+241
Eventually comes through? Have you forgotten Hyperloop, new roadster, instant battery swaps, tunnels to replace all traffic, your car appreciating in value, your car being used as a robotaxi during downtime to make you money, semi convoys, etc etc?

>>Slarti+9u
Cynics are often right

Optimists are often rich

>>dubeye+UQ
It's increasingly something the general populace is not a fan of, at least that's been my experience.

so if the cybertruck is not a win, what in the last 5 years is?

>>dubeye+I11
> He gets away with it for one reason only, and because he consistently delivers good returns on capital.

Didn't Tesla just have a terrible 2025, with European sales plunging due to the stigma of owning a swasticar?

>>yibg+5t1
Some combination of the two, for sure. doesn't mean that Musk can't keep doing it. however you describe it or define it, it's a proven strategy at this point. I'm not sure Larry knew how Musk would make him good on Twitter, but he knew enough about Musk to be confident it would happen.

>>greggo+tG1
Revenue has flatlined, but investors' confidence comes from Musk's track record for delivering good returns to investors. I think we can agree Musk succeeded in 2020 to 2025 in this regard. Whether you are confident he can do it again over next five years is the key question.

>>dubeye+w72
I'm personally more persuaded by the argument that Tesla is a meme-stock at this point - like much of crypto, it runs on "vibes", not solid fundamentals.

But even if share price is the metric for success, 33.6% over 5 years is like 6% compounded annually, which is okay I guess? [0]

[0] https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-seven-stocks-840226...

>>dubeye+N11
>Not sure who determines the threshold

The SEC.

>he certainly goes to court more than your average person

Yes because he sues a lot of entities for silly things such as some advertisers declining to buy ads that display next to pro-hitler posts, or news outlets for posting unaltered screenshots of a social media site he acquired.

>>the_sl+0x1
I feel that Cynics are often average.

Optimists are either rich, or destitute. And though you probably hear more about the richer parts, that doesn't mean they're more common.