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1. JumpCr+(OP)[view] [source] 2024-06-13 19:37:35
> Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all

They’re fighting like a ragtag African army, not a modern combined-arms one. Their latest air-defence systems which they once peddled for half a billion dollars each are being taken out by old American kit. The front lines barely budged while Ukraine was rationing arms; Russia is quite literally liquidating its economy and demography for Pyrrhic gains. We are watching the voluntary disassembly of a regional power.

> Stuff getting expensive is no different than the west

There is a massive difference between eggs becoming more expensive and not being able to access modern chip fabrication.

> Slightly worse living standards can destroy the western democracies as they shift to extremist politics but has no effect on Russian leadership

This was the Nazis’ hypothesis. In the end, Britain was able to shift to a more-extreme war footing earlier and more forcefully.

Putin has made this claim, but goes out of his way to insulate the Moscow elite from the effects of the war. The history of democracies in war is generally that they’re far more resilient than strongmen.

replies(1): >>mrtksn+k1
2. mrtksn+k1[view] [source] 2024-06-13 19:43:40
>>JumpCr+(OP)
I like your optimism but this time around "the West" is a de-industrialized society and if China stops selling tiny electric motors the drone warfare will be lost as the west can't produce this stuff.

Everything is made in China, the factories are there even if the west holds rights and patents etc. The west is services heavy but there's little this expertise can do anything about blowing up people and vehicles.

replies(1): >>JumpCr+M1
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3. JumpCr+M1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-06-13 19:45:48
>>mrtksn+k1
> this time around "the West" is a de-industrialized society

American manufacturing is at an all-time high [1]. Are you conflating manufacturing employment with power?

> if China stops selling tiny electric motors the drone warfare will be lost as the west can't produce this stuff

Uh, I’m fairly deep into drone manufacturing in America. This is multi-level nonsense.

One: you’re confusing quadcopters with military drones, whose motors aren’t tiny and often aren’t motors but turbofans.

Two: we produce lots of electric motors and turbofans. In the case of the former, not at China’s scale, though far more autonomously (and thus easier to scale up if needed). In the case of the latter, far better and similarly quickly after adjusting for effective yield.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO/

replies(1): >>mrtksn+93
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4. mrtksn+93[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-06-13 19:52:06
>>JumpCr+M1
All time high as of producing small amount of very expensive stuff won't be good if can't produce huge amount of basic stuff.

Is USA capable of producing huge number of electric motors? Other "not profitable enough to produce here" stuff?

Remember how the west wasn't able to deliver enough artillery shells simply because it can't produce enough? Now it might be ramping up in the shells department but there's so many things that the west can't make anymore in large quantities.

replies(1): >>JumpCr+s9
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5. JumpCr+s9[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-06-13 20:22:28
>>mrtksn+93
> All time high as of producing small amount of very expensive stuff

You’ve made a series of wrong, uncited claims. This is another one.

> Is USA capable of producing huge number of electric motors?

Siemens is the world’s largest manufacturer of electric motors. They have massive plants in Germany, Ohio and Missouri [1][2]. Toshiba, the second largest, in Houston and Canada [3]. ABB, third largest, with plants across 8 states, directed from Arkansas, as well as in India [4].

China has cheaper labour and laxer environmental laws than America. But we have some of the world’s cheapest and most-abundant energy. Motor manufacturing isn’t dirty or labour intensive. I’m not sure where your obsession with electric motors comes from, because it’s an example of Allied manufacturing vastly outstripping China.

> Remember how the west wasn't able to deliver enough artillery shells simply because it can't produce enough?

Yes, in part because we want to maintain reserves. We matched Ukraine’s military budget to the entirety of Russia’s [5]. As a side project.

[1] https://www.siemens.com/us/en/company/about/siemens-in-the-u...

[2] https://www.siemens.com/us/en/products/drives/electric-motor...

[3] https://www.toshiba.com/tic/inside-toshiba/manufacturing-ser...

[4] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABB_Motors_and_Mechanical

[5] https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/w...

replies(1): >>mrtksn+Td
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6. mrtksn+Td[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-06-13 20:46:30
>>JumpCr+s9
Again, spending a lot is not the same as having large number of machinery produced. Dollar bills don't blow up BTRs, cheap energy is cool but Russia too has cheap energy. They also have cheap people who can use that cheap energy to build huge numbers of cheap stuff that blow up expensive things.

It's like India going to the moon at cost that would be considered pocket change in the USA.

Ping me when Ukrainian drones are made by US/European parts and not Chinese.

replies(2): >>JumpCr+nh >>airstr+2r
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7. JumpCr+nh[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-06-13 21:03:11
>>mrtksn+Td
> spending a lot is not the same as having large number of machinery produced

You’ve made a series of wrong, uncited claims. This is another one. (And the last one I’m responding to. You are not arguing in good faith.)

You called out electric motors. By mass and production volume, China is outstripped by Allied production.

> cheap energy is cool but Russia too has cheap energy

Much less than America production-wise. We’re counting volumes and mass, right?

> like India going to the moon at cost that would be considered pocket change in the USA

You really keep picking terrible examples to spitball on.

The SSLV’s launch cost per kg is over 3x Falcon 9’s [1][2]. American access to space is orders of magnitude cheaper and more extensive than India, Russia and China’s combined, despite massively higher labour costs and design requirements.

That said, India actually got to the Moon. Can’t say as much about Russia [3].

[1] https://www.newspace.im/launchers/isro

[2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_launch_market_competit...

[3] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_25

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8. airstr+2r[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-06-13 22:03:38
>>mrtksn+Td
At this point you're just trolling. It's honestly tiresome. The US could easily produce cheap electronic motors if it wanted to in record time, particularly in a war effort. It would be child's play. The whole reason this stuff is offshored to developing nations is because anyone can do it, so you might as well hire the cheapest labor—or so the reasoning goes.

Check your own biases at the door next time you're looking to engage in intelligent discussion, lest you come across as quibbling in bad faith.

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