IBM and Microsoft made OS/2. The first version worked on 286s and was stable but useless.
The second version worked only on 386s and was quite good, and even had wonderful windows 3.x compatibility. "Better windows than windows!"
At that point Microsoft wanted out of the deal and they wanted to make their newer version of windows, NT, which they did.
IBM now had a competitor to "new" windows and a very compatible version of "old" windows. Microsoft killed OS2 by a variety of ways (including just letting IBM be IBM) but also by making it very difficult for last month's version of OS/2 to run next month's bunch of Windows programs.
To bring this back to the point -- IBM vs Microsoft is akin to AMD vs Nvidia -- where nvidia has the standard that AMD is implementing, and so no matter what if you play in the backward compatibility realm you're always going to be playing catch-up and likely always in a position where winning is exceedingly hard.
As WOPR once said "interesting game; the only way to win is to not play."
I'm curious about this. Sure some CUDA code has already been written. If something new comes along that provides better performance per dollar spent, why continue writing CUDA for new projects? I don't think the argument that "this is what we know how to write" works in this case. These aren't scripts you want someone to knock out quickly.
If the put their stuff as OpenSource, including firmware, I think they will win out eventually.
And its also not a guarantee that Nvidia will always produce the superior hardware for that code.
They won’t be able to do that, their hardware isn’t fast enough.
Nvidia is beating them at hardware performance, AND ALSO has an exclusive SDK (CUDA) that is used by almost all deep learning projects. If AMD can get their cards to run CUDA via ROCm, then they can begin to compete with Nvidia on price (though not performance). Then, and only then, if they can start actually producing cards with equivalent performance (also a big stretch) they can try for an Embrace Extend Extinguish play against CUDA.
Worked fine for MS with Excel supporting Lotus 123 and Word supporting WordPerfect's formats when those were dominant...
Windows NT wasn't really relevant in that competition for much longer, only XP was finally for end consumers.
> where nvidia has the standard that AMD is implementing, and so no matter what if you play in the backward compatibility realm you're always going to be playing catch-up
That's not true. If AMD starts adding their own features and have their own advantages, that can flip.
It only takes a single generation of hardware, or a single feature for things to flip.
Look at Linux and Unix. Its started out with Linux implementing Unix, and now the Unix are trying to add compatibility with with Linux.
Is SGI still the driving force behind OpenGL/Vulcan? Did you think it was a bad idea for other companies to use OpenGL?
AMD was successful against Intel with x86_64.
There are lots of example of the company making something popular, not being able to take full advantage of it in the long run.
For CUDA, it is not just AMD who would need to catch up. Developers also are not necessarily going to target the latest feature set immediately, especially if it only benefits (or requires) new hardware.
I accept the final statement, but that also means AMD for compute is gonna be dead like OS/2. Their stack just will not reach critical mass.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embrace,_extend,_and_extinguis...
People writing CUDA apps don't just want stuff to run, performance is an extremely important factor else they would target CPUs which are easier to program for.
From their readme: > On Server GPUs, ZLUDA can compile CUDA GPU code to run in one of two modes: > Fast mode, which is faster, but can make exotic (but correct) GPU code hang. > Slow mode, which should make GPU code more stable, but can prevent some applications from running on ZLUDA.
Meanwhile Excel was gaining features and winning users with them even before Windows was in play.
By what measures hasn't that happened already? CUDA been around and constantly improving for more than 15 years, and there is no competitors in sight so far. It's basically the de facto standard in many ecosystems.
Rosetta 2 runs apps at 80-90% their native speed.
CUDA currently has the better raw performance, better availability, and a long record indicating that the platform won't just disappear in a couple of years. You can use it on pretty much any NVIDIA GPU and it's properly supported. The same CUDA code that ran on a GTX680 can run on an RTX4090 with minimal changes if any (maybe even the same binary).
In comparison, AMD has a very spotty record with their compute technologies, stuff gets released and becomes effectively abandonware, or after just a few years support gets dropped regardless of the hardware's popularity. For several generations they basically led people on with promises of full support on consumer hardware that either never arrived or arrived when the next generation of cards were already available, and despite the general popularity of the rx580 and the popularity of the Radeon VII in compute applications, they dropped 'official' support. AMD treats its 'consumer' cards as third class citizens for compute support, but you aren't going to convince people to seriously look into your platform like that. Plus, it's a lot more appealing to have "GPU acceleration will allow us to take advantage of newer supercomputers, while also offering massive benefits to regular users" than just the former.
This was ultimately what removed AMD as a consideration for us when we were deciding on which to focus on for GPU acceleration in our application. Many of us already had access to an NVIDIA GPU of any sort, which would make development easier, while the entire facility had one ROCm capable AMD GPU at the time, specifically so they could occasionally check in on its status.
So while Intel had to bow to AMD's success and give up Itanium, they weren't then limited by that and could proceed to iterate on top of it.
Meanwhile it'll be a cold day in hell before Nvidia licenses anything about CUDA to AMD, much less allows AMD to iterate on top of it.
Well, then I guess CUDA is not really the problem, so being able to run CUDA on AMD hardware wouldn't solve anything.
> try for an Embrace Extend Extinguish play against CUDA
They wouldn't need to go that route. They just need a way to run existing CUDA code on AMD hardware. Once that happens, their customers have the option to save money by writing ROCm or whatever AMD is working on at that time.
Not at all, the performance hit was in the low 10s %, before natively supporting Apple Silicon most of the apps I use for music/video/photography didn't seem to have a performance impact at all, even more when the M1 machines were so much faster than the Intels.
Even if AMD lagged support on CUDA versioning, I think it would be widely accepted if the performance per dollar at certain price points was better.
Taking the whole market from NVIDIA is not really an option, it's better to attack certain price points and niches and then expand from there. The CUDA ship sailed a long time ago in my view.
A lot went wrong with os/2. For CUDA, I think a better analogy is vhs. The standard, in the effective not open sense, is what it is. AMD sucks at software and views it as an expense rather than an advantage.
However, that same logic doesn't apply to consumers, and since they continued to fail to learn that lesson now IBM doesn't even target the consumer market given that they never learned how to be competitive and could only ever effectively function when they had a monopoly or at least a vendor lock-in.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_the_IBM_PC_busi...
Ahhhh, your hindsight is well developed. I would be interested to know the background on the reasons why Lotus made that bet. We can't know the counterfactual, but Lotus delivering on a platform owned by their deadly competitor Microsoft would seem to me to be a clearly worrysome idea to Lotus at the time. Turned out it was an existentially bad idea. Did Lotus fear Microsoft? "DOS ain't done till Lotus won't run" is a myth[1] for a reason. Edit: DRDOS errors[2] were one reason Lotus might fear Microsoft. We can just imagine a narritive of a different timeline where Lotus delivered on Windows but did some things differently to beat Excel. I agree, Lotus made other mistakes and Microsoft made some great decisions, but the point remains.
We can also suspect that AMD have a similar choice now where they are forked. Depending on Nvidea/CUDA may be a similar choice for AMD - fail if they do and fail if they don't.
[1] http://www.proudlyserving.com/archives/2005/08/dos_aint_done...
[2] https://www.theregister.com/1999/11/05/how_ms_played_the_inc...
Proton, Wine, and all of the compatibility fixes and drive improvements that the community has made in the last 16 years has been amazing, and every day is another day where you can say that it has never been easier to switch away from Windows.
However, Microsoft has definitely been drinking the IBM koolaid a little to long and has lost the mandate of heaven. I think in the next 7-10 years we will reach a point where there is nothing Windows can do that linux cannot do better and easier without spying on you, and we may be 3-5 years from a "killer app" that is specifically built to be incompatible with Windows just as a big FU to them, possibly in the VR world, possibly in AR, and once that happens maybe, maybe, maybe it will finally actually be the year of the linux desktop.
I tried to get it working this weekend but it was a huge PITA so I switched to putting everything into WSL2 then in arch on there pytorch etc in containers so I could flip versions easily now that I know how SPECIFIC the versions are to one another.
I'm still working on that part, halfway into it my WSL2 completely broke and I had to reinstall windows. I'm scared to mount the vhdx right now. I did ALL of my work and ALL of my documentation is inside of the WSL2 archlinux and NOT on my windows machine. I have EVERYTHING I need to quickly put another server up (dotfiles, configs) sitting in a chezmoi git repo ON THE VM. That I only git committed one init like 5 mins into everything. THAT was a learning experience, now I have no idea if I should follow the "best practice" of keeping projects in wsl or having wsl reach out to windows, there's a performance drop. The 9p networking stopped working and no matter what I reinstalled, reset, removed features, reset windows, etc, it wouldn't start. But at least I have that WSL2 .vhdx image that will hopefully mount and start. And probably break WSL2 again. I even SPECIFICALLY took backups of the image as tarballs every hour in case I broke LINUX, not WSL.
If anyone has done sd containers in wsl2 already let me know. I've tried to use WSL for dev work (i use osx) like this 2-3 times in the last 4-5 years and I always run into some catastrophically broken thing that makes my WSL stop working. I hadn't used it in years so hoped it was super reliable by now. This is on 3 different desktops with completely different hardware, etc. I was terrified it would break this weekend and IT DID. At least I can be up in windows in 20 minutes thanks to chocolately and chezmoi. Wiped out my entire gaming desktop.
Sorry I'm venting now this was my entire weekend.
This repo is from a deepspeed contrib (iirc) and lists the reqs for deepspeed + windows that mention the version matches
https://github.com/S95Sedan/Deepspeed-Windows
> conda install pytorch==2.1.2 torchvision==0.16.2 torchaudio==2.1.2 pytorch-cuda=12.1 -c pytorch -c nvidia
It may sound weird to do any of this in Windows, or maybe not, but if it does just remember that it's a lot of gamers like me with 4090s who just want to learn ML stuff as a hobby. I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing but thank god I know containers and linux like the back of my hand.
They have a hard time to understand the pain points of their consumers, as they don't feel that pain, look trough their own organisation-coloured glases, and can't see the real pain points from the whiney-customer ones.
AMD probably thinks software ecosystems are the easy part, ready to take it on whenever they feel like it and throw a token amount at it. They've built a great engine, see the carossery as beneath them, and don't understand why the lazy customer wants them to build the rest of the car too.
And that someone usually isn't a manufacturer, lest the committee be accused of bias.
Consequently, you get (a) outdated features that SotA has already moved beyond, (b) designed in a way that doesn't correspond to actual practice, and (c) that are overly generalized.
There are some notable exceptions (e.g. IETF), but the general rule has been that open specs please no one, slowly.
IMHO, FRAND and liberal cross-licensing produce better results.
As much as I love Microsoft/Windows for the work they have put into WSL, I ended up just putting Kubuntu on my devices and use QEMU with GPU passthrough whenever I need Windows. Gaming perf is good. You need an iGPU or a cheap second GPU for Linux in order to hand off a 4090 etc. to Windows (unless maybe your motherboard happens to support headless boot but if it's a consumer board it doesn't). Dual boot with Windows always gave me trouble.
These were precisely the arguments for 'x86 will entrench Intel for all time', and we've seen AMD succeed at that game just fine.
First I thought it was hardware related in a Remote Desktop session leading me to think some weird audio driver thing
have you encountered anything like this at all?
(To be clear, HIP is about converting CUDA source code not running CUDA-compiled binaries but the Zluda project discussed in OP heavily relies on it.)
I bet there are at least two markets (or niches):
1. People who want the absolute best performance and the latest possible version and are willing to pay the premium for it;
2. People who want to trade performance by cost and accept working with not-the-latest versions.
In fact, I bet the market for (2) is much larger than (1).
I think the case of cuda vs an open standard is different from os2 vs Windows because the customers of cuda are programmers with access to source code while the customers of os2 were end users trying to run apps written by others.
If your shrink-wrapped software didn't run on os2, you'd have no choice but to go buy Windows. Otoh if your ai model doesn't run on an AMD device and the issue is something minor, you can edit the shader code.
If AMD invented the analogous to x86_64 for CUDA, this would increase competition and progress in AI by some huge fraction.
... after a couple decades of legal proceedings and a looming FTC monopoly case convinced Intel to throw in the towel, cross-license, and compete more fairly with AMD.
https://jolt.law.harvard.edu/digest/intel-and-amd-settlement
AMD didn't just magically do it on its own.
that's a fascinating statement with the clear ascendancy of neural-assisted algorithms etc. Things like DLSS are the future - small models that just quietly optimize some part of a workload that was commonly considered impossible to the extent nobody even thinks about it anymore.
my prediction is that in 10 years we are looking at the rise of tag+collection based filesystems and operating system paradigms. all of us generate a huge amount of "digital garbage" constantly, and you either sort it out into the important stuff, keep temporarily, and toss, or you accumulate a giant digital garbage pile. AI systems are gonna automate that process, it's gonna start on traditional tree-based systems but eventually you don't need the tree at all, AI is what's going to make that pivot to true tag/collection systems possible.
Tags mostly haven't worked because of a bunch of individual issues which are pretty much solved by AI. Tags aren't specific enough: well, AI can give you good guesses at relevance. Tagging files and maintaining collections is a pain: well, the AI can generate tags and assign collections for you. Tags really require an ontology for "fuzzy" matching (search for "food" should return the tag "hot dog") - well, LLMs understand ontologies fine. Etc etc. And if you do it right, you can basically have the AI generate "inbox/outbox" for you, deduplicate files and handle versioning, etc, all relatively seamlessly.
microsoft and macos are both clearly racing for this with the "AI os" concept. It's not just better relevance searches etc. And the "generate me a whole paragraph before you even know what I'm trying to type" stuff is not how it's going to work either. That stuff is like specular highlights in video games around 2007 or whatever - once you had the tool, for a few years everything was w e t until developers learned some restraint with it. But there are very very good applications that are going to come out in the 10 year window that are going to reduce operator cognitive load by a lot - that is the "AI OS" concept. What would the OS look like if you truly had the "computer is my secretary" idea? Not just dictating memorandums, but assistance in keeping your life in order and keeping you on-task.
I simply cannot see linux being able to keep up with this change, in the same way the kernel can't just switch to rust - at some point you are too calcified to ever do the big-bang rewrite if there is not a BDFL telling you that it's got to happen.
the downside of being "the bazaar" is that you are standards-driven and have to deal with corralling a million whiny nerds constantly complaining about "spying on me just like microsoft" and continuing to push in their own other directions (sysvinit/upstart/systemd factions, etc) and whatever else, on top of all the other technical issues of doing a big-bang rewrite. linux is too calcified to ever pivot away from being a tree-based OS and it's going to be another 2-3 decades before they catch up with "proper support for new file-organization paradigms" etc even in the smaller sense.
that's really just the tip of the iceberg on the things AI is going to change, and linux is probably going to be left out of most of those commercial applications despite being where the research is done. It's just too much of a mess and too many nerdlingers pushing back to ever get anything done. Unix will be represented in this new paradigm but not Linux - the commercial operators who have the centralization and fortitude to build a cathedral will get there much quicker, and that looks like MacOS or Solaris not linux.
Or at least, unless I see some big announcement from KDE or Gnome or Canonical/Red Hat about a big AI-OS rewrite... I assume that's pretty much where the center of gravity is going to stay for linux.
It's a classic "between a rock and a hard place" scenario. Quite a conundrum.
If the players in the space have naturally coalesced around one over the last decade, can we skip the thrashing and just go with it this time?
I've done this on both a hackintosh and void linux. I was so excited to get the hackintosh working because I honestly hate day desktop linux, it's my day job to work on and I just don't want to deal with it after work.
Unfortunately both would break in significant ways and I'd have to trudge through and fix things. I had that void desktop backed up with Duplicacy (duplicati front end) and IIRC I tried to roll back after breaking qemu, it just dumps all your backup files into their dirs, and I think I broke it more.
I think at that point I was back up in Windows in 30 mins.. and all of its intricacies like bsoding 30% of the time that I either restart it or unplug a usb hub. But my Macbooks have a 30% chance of not waking up on Monday morning when I haven't used them all weekend without me having to grab them and open the screen.
WebGPU might be the thing that unifies the frontend API for folks writing cross-platform renderers, seeing as browsers will have to implement it on top of the platform APIs anyway.
https://linuxmusicians.com/viewtopic.php?t=25556
Could be completely unrelated though, RDP sessions can definitely act up, get audio out of sync etc. I try to never do pass through rdp audio, it's not even enabled by default in the mstsc client IIRC but that may just be a "probably server" thing.
I would guess there are lots of people still running CUDA 11. Older clusters, etc. A lot of that software doesn't get updated very often.
The only thing it has going for it is being a free beer UNIX clone for headless environments, and even then, isn't that relevant on cloud environments where containers and managed languages abstract everything they run on.
Maybe some Microsoft owned games makers will never make the shift, but if the majority of others do then that's the death knell.
For the non-vendor lock in AI's (copilot), casting as wide of a net as possible to catch customers as easily as possible should by default mean that they would invest the small amount of money to build linux integrations into their AI platforms.
Plus, the googs has a pretty deep investment into the linux ecosystem and should have little issue pushing bard or gemini or whatever they'll call it next week before they kill it out into a linux compatible interface, and if they do that then the other big players will follow.
And, don't overlook the next generation of VR headsets. People have gotten silly over the Apple headset, but Valve should be rolling out the Deckhard soon and others will start to compete in that space since Apple raised the price bar and should soon start rolling out hardware with more features and software to take advantage of it.
It is. All the things are the problem. AMD is behind on both hardware and software, for both gaming and compute workloads, and has been for many years. Their competitor has them beat in pretty much every vertical, and the lock-in from CUDA helps ensure that even if AMD can get their act together on the hardware side, existing compute workloads (there are oceans of existing workloads) won’t run on their hardware, so it won’t matter for professional or datacenter usage.
To compete with Nvidia in those verticals, AMD has to fix all of it. Ideally they’d come out with something better than CUDA, but they have not shown an aptitude for being able to do something like that. That’s why people keep telling them to just make a compatibility layer. It’s a sad place to be, but that’s the sad place where AMD is, and they have to play the hand they’ve been dealt.
if that's the case you have billion-dollar opportunities waiting for you to prove it!
If their primary objective is to break the CUDA monopoly, they should up their game in software, which means going as far as implementing support for their hardware in the most popular user apps themselves, if necessary. But since they don't seem to want to do that, they should really go for option one, especially if a single engineer already got so far.
Let's say AMD sold a lot of cards with CUDA support. Now nvidia tries to cut them off. What will happen next? A lot of people will replace their cards with nvidia ones. But a lot of the rest will try to make their expensive AMD cards work regardless. And if AMD provides a platform for that, they will get that work for free.
Unity, Unreal and Godot all support compiling for Linux either by default or with inexpensive or possibly free add-ons. I'm sure many other game engines do as well, and when you're taking a few hours of work at most to add everyone who owns a steam deck or a steam deck clone as a potential customer to your customer base then that is not a tall order.
We already see things like Google abandoning tensorflow support for Windows, because they don't have enough devs using Windows to easily maintain it.
And of course, we have a changing of the guard in terms of a generation of software developers who primarily worked on Windows, because that was the way to do it, starting to retire. Younger devs came up in the Google era where Linux is a first class citizen alongside MacOS.
I think these factors are going to change the face of technology in the coming 15 years, and that's likely to affect how businesses and consumers consume technology, even if they don't understand what's actually running under the hood.
MS has put a collosal amount money into catching up to at least be able to take advantage of the AI wave, that much is clear. Maybe for consumers this will be enough, but R&D wise I don't see them ever being the default choice.
And this is potentially a huge problem for them in the long run, because OS choice by industry is driven by the available tooling. If they lose ML, they could potentially lose traditional engineering if fields like robotics start relying on Linux more heavily.
FOSS folks make this a bigger issue than it really is, game studios make a pluggable API on their engine and call it a day, move on into everything else that matters in actually delivering a game.
This doesn't make the "play" button any different. People only care if the Proton version is buggy or noticeably less performant, and native ports have no trouble being both of those (see: Rust (game) before the devs dropped Linux support)
It limits Nvidia's profit margin - if Nvidia cards run twice as fast but cost more than twice as much, then people will just buy two AMD cards. Meanwhile, it gives AMD some revenue with which to fund an improved CUDA stack.
>their customers have the option to save money by writing ROCm
CUDA saves money by having a fuckton of pre-written CUDA code and being supported as default basically everywhere.
Crackle would happen so rarely that I KNOW it definitely happened but it wasn't like a 2 day thing it was probably like, once in a year or 6 months, etc.
If you slap a CUDA compatibility layer on top of AMD, then CUDA code optimized for NVIDIA chips would run, but would suffer a performance penalty compared to code that was customized/tuned for AMD, so unless AMD GPUs were sold cheap enough (i.e. with low profit margin) to mitigate this loss of performance you might as well buy NVIDIA in the first place.
You probably already know but just in case you don't: you can set up a Linux VM with VirtualBox on your Windows and then mount the vhdx (read-only) as an additional disk to extract the stuff you need via shared folders.
I'm curios, so WSL2 broke that you cannot even add new distros, remove broken distros? or Windows host itself became unstable?
We can see that it’s not magic, the neuron either activates or it doesn’t, so why should I pay attention to some probabilistic steam of gibberish it spewed out? There is nothing meaningful that can be inferred from such systems, right?