zlacker

[parent] [thread] 46 comments
1. zug_zu+(OP)[view] [source] 2024-01-28 15:50:59
Just a contextual note -- one thing Sabine says is: AI won't help because we know the exact solution, we just aren't willing to do it.

Presumably she's referring to her first proposal -- a carbon tax. It's my understanding that there's nearly consensus among economists that a carbon tax is the most efficient solution to global warming, but political consensus that it would never happen when framed as a tax.

If you don't know what a carbon tax is, or why it's orders of magnitude more efficient a solution than "eat less meat" I'd encourage you to look into it a bit. Essentially if you create a system where what is best for the planet is also the cheapest course of action (for individuals and businesses), you no longer have to rely on convincing every single individual to change their morality/beliefs.

replies(7): >>Andrew+K >>nradov+81 >>ianai+b1 >>zapnuk+Mh >>jcfrei+Yv >>whydoi+4V2 >>jjjjj5+tN3
2. Andrew+K[view] [source] 2024-01-28 15:55:47
>>zug_zu+(OP)
A global tax requires global enforcement

No sovereign is going to agree to subordinate itself without all others doing the same

Classic prisoners dilemma

replies(2): >>neilk+38 >>fulafe+oH1
3. nradov+81[view] [source] 2024-01-28 15:57:53
>>zug_zu+(OP)
In order to be politically acceptable, a carbon tax should be phased in gradually and coupled with a reduction in income tax so as to make it revenue neutral. That way it can't be framed as just another government tax grab.
replies(3): >>dublin+c4 >>nayuki+u7 >>pintxo+cE
4. ianai+b1[view] [source] 2024-01-28 15:58:23
>>zug_zu+(OP)
It's finding a way to input the external costs of consumption of emissive products into their final price(s). In reality, a gallon of gas causes significantly more damage than the price paid at the pump - it was like $16/gallon when I saw a figure for it around 2010. Imagine how much differently a world with $20/gallon gas would look. There'd probably be massive pressures from all corners to move away from oil.
replies(3): >>trimet+C2 >>nojvek+yv >>Shocka+9k6
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5. trimet+C2[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 16:09:25
>>ianai+b1
Gas was just under $4 a liter every time I've been to Europe. That's about $16/gallon. People were driving to work, and sitting in traffic, just like they do in the US.
replies(2): >>ianai+23 >>Adrian+e4
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6. ianai+23[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 16:12:15
>>trimet+C2
For there, that'd be 32/gallon with the old figure I used.
replies(1): >>trimet+bp1
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7. dublin+c4[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 16:19:38
>>nradov+81
Offsetting income tax would be a massive handout to the rich, who have been and continue to be the greatest contributors to carbon emissions.

Instead, it should be paired with a dividend which makes it revenue neutral for the median household. Lower income families, who are more impacted by but less responsible for climate change, would be paid a benefit.

replies(4): >>Adrian+35 >>michae+z9 >>angra_+Hg2 >>brlewi+DT2
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8. Adrian+e4[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 16:19:53
>>trimet+C2
Gas was never above $2 per liter in Europe, you are mistaken. The highest gas price I've ever seen was close to $2 per liter, a bit below (~1.90, maybe).
replies(2): >>trimet+J9 >>sobani+6B5
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9. Adrian+35[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 16:25:19
>>dublin+c4
There is progressive taxation, so you can control who is getting offsets and who is not.
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10. nayuki+u7[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 16:37:03
>>nradov+81
This is already the case in Canada's carbon tax. The amount of tax you pay is proportional to the amount of fossil fuels you consume. But the amount of refund you receive is equal to the total tax collected divided by the population; you receive the same refund regardless of how much you consume. It is a revenue-neutral scheme.
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11. neilk+38[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 16:39:48
>>Andrew+K
That’s too pessimistic. Dozens of countries have some kind of carbon tax right now. Important and influential jurisdictions like California, also have them. Even oil-producing regions have them.

They are universally rather timid in their scope, and politically fragile. So maybe they aren’t going to get us there, at least not in their current form.

But it’s going too far to say they just don’t exist or can’t exist.

We have plenty of treaties that inhibit states. Nuclear weapons, slavery, pollutants. Enlightentment and enlightened self-interest isn’t out of the question.

replies(1): >>Andrew+Ic
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12. michae+z9[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 16:48:34
>>dublin+c4
Canada’s rebate was per-capita. Most people received more in their rebate than they paid in increased fuel cost.
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13. trimet+J9[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 16:49:15
>>Adrian+e4
Depends where and when. Regardless you're around $7.50 per gallon today. That's more than double the price in the US. Globally, fuel is relatively cheap right now.
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14. Andrew+Ic[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 17:06:49
>>neilk+38
“Enlightened self interest” is randian nonsense. That’s how we got here in the first place

Ask Lybia how nuclear disarmament went

Go count all the slaves supplying the global market for chocolate, cobalt, mica, vanilla etc...

How about prisoners in the US making .20-.50c/hr making license plates or literally picking cotton on a former slave plantation in alabama.

Or how about slave labor in the form of migrant children working in factories for Hyundai in the US south

The concept of self-interested Neoliberalism has utterly failed and it is turning into a global catastrophe

The earth cannot sustain 8 Billion people each living at millionaire consumption standards

replies(2): >>wolver+Op1 >>fsflov+B52
15. zapnuk+Mh[view] [source] 2024-01-28 17:41:39
>>zug_zu+(OP)
It's not just on a global level.

In germany we can't agree on building new north-south power lines to transport the energy we generate through wind power.

..and in the USA (and many other 1st world countries) you still have one of the two political parties who doesn't even agree that climate change is either real or poses a serious problem.

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16. nojvek+yv[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 19:06:49
>>ianai+b1
I am personally pretty opposed to taxing co2 emissions and playing games with carbon credit.

We should not be making energy expensive for the lay person.

Provide subsidies to build new solar, wind and nuclear farms - sure.

The world will quickly adapt renewable energy if it is much cheaper and convenient to use it.

In similar vein, for god sake don’t tax solar panels above usual tax rate. I’m looking at Arizona.

The biggest mistake any democratic government can make is life more expensive and miserable for their population.

That seldom goes well.

replies(3): >>ianai+KH >>angra_+Bf2 >>scoofy+fp3
17. jcfrei+Yv[view] [source] 2024-01-28 19:08:51
>>zug_zu+(OP)
A carbon tax will not be politically viable for two simple reasons: 1) Some people who would need to pay can't really afford it: It's people living in old houses or who have to drive very far to work or rely on cheap energy for heating and electricity - It's not gonna affect the software engineer who drives his Tesla to work.

2) Another big chunk of the working population would lose their jobs because their industry gets shaken up: Those working in polluting industries (coal and gas) or the huge part of the economy that's surrounding petro-chemicals (gas stations clerks, heating engineers, fuel truck drivers), etc.

You would need to redistribute the CO2 tax income as welfare checks but again: That's not a politically viable solution because the fear of job losses pretty much outweighs anything else.

replies(2): >>brlewi+zS2 >>barbaz+k34
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18. pintxo+cE[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 20:06:57
>>nradov+81
The plan for Germany was to give out climate money to everyone. E.g. all additional funds acquired through increased carbon taxes where supposed to be equally returned to the population on a per head basis. Turns out even Germany does not have a Government process for that. And parts of the current coalition, which happen to be tasked with creating that process, are more interested in stalling implementation as long as possible.
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19. ianai+KH[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 20:33:16
>>nojvek+yv
I kind of agree. Right now, too, what is happening is what you describe. The other options are getting cheaper and will eventually be the cost effective solution. On the other, taxing societal negatives is exactly how to disincentivize them. But at least have an industry for remediating the effects of emissions.

Also see above where I said to build out nuclear asap and at economically significant rates.

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20. trimet+bp1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 02:58:23
>>ianai+23
Do you have any example of a country driving less when fuel costs were ALWAYS higher? I would guess short term, yes, but eventually people will drive just as much, and they will spend less on housing, which will decrease costs of housing to allow for a larger portion of income to pay for gas. That seems like basic economics to me. Unless, you have a real world example that contrasts that. People still have to get to work. They still have to pick up their kids from school. It doesn't matter what gas costs. They still have to. Just like they are paying double for it in Europe today, they will pay whatever it costs.
replies(1): >>ianai+5c2
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21. wolver+Op1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 03:07:35
>>Andrew+Ic
I don't understand your point: There are bad things in the world, so everything is bad? We could point to lots of good things too.

In fact, you live better - far better - than anyone in history. It's not even close. It was built by the post-war 'neoliberal' order, on a foundation of human rights and free markets.

For us to quit and complain after all the work our predecessors did, remaining optimistic and working in a much starker situation - after depressions and world wars - would be pathetic abdication of our duties.

replies(1): >>Andrew+Vr1
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22. Andrew+Vr1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 03:31:00
>>wolver+Op1
I’m not sure what to tell you here cause you’re not looking at reality because life is hard for a lot of people and getting harder.

I suggest you read this:

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2022.026...

replies(1): >>wolver+xH1
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23. fulafe+oH1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 06:29:01
>>Andrew+K
A lot of places already have carbon pricing in place (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_emission_trading#Exampl...).

The international political system has a long track record of cajoling nations into joining treaties that theoretically are like this.

It's not prisoner's dilemma, because the main property of the PD problem is that parties are prevented from communicating and cooperating with each other. When there's negotiations, transparencency/monitoring, etc, parties can cooperate. If you think international treaty development is like PD, you are due for a for a big optimism update!

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24. wolver+xH1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 06:29:58
>>Andrew+Vr1
> life is hard for a lot of people and getting harder.

Life is hard and always has been, but it's far easier than the lives of our ancestors (on average, of course).

Just look at the people who lived through - or the (200?) million who died in and more who lost everything in - WWII, less than 100 years ago, right after the Great Depression, right after WWI. And they were optimistic and energetic enough to build historically free, peaceful, and prosperous postwar order.

There is far more to do, absolutely. Let's get to work.

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25. fsflov+B52[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 10:42:33
>>Andrew+Ic
> The earth cannot sustain 8 Billion people each living at millionaire consumption standards

This might be true, but what exactly are you suggesting?

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26. ianai+5c2[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 11:53:12
>>trimet+bp1
Absolutely, when gas doubled during the Great Recession I personally saw much less traffic on the roads in the major US city I lived in at the time. People were also much less aggressive on the roads. Unlike those days, people can now offset their use of oil for transportation with BEVs and PHEVs. See recent reports of oil/gas demand seemingly plateaued to decreasing.

When the price of something increases, energy included, alternatives become more attractive. Oil enjoyed strong price insensitivities for a long time, but those days are sunsetting.

Even China is seeing this with their “lying flat” movement. Dowries for a marriage are averaging USD 60,000(per The Economist). So instead men aren’t dating and aren’t doing the 996.

Russia is seeing it in European nations building LNG infrastructure at their major ports and taking deliveries from overseas. That’s a long term loss of business. And those same European nations are incentivizing their citizens to replace heaters with heatpumps and other means of reducing fossil fuel use.

When prices and costs increase people are incentivized to decide to go with alternatives.

replies(2): >>trimet+BI3 >>trimet+GW3
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27. angra_+Bf2[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 12:29:17
>>nojvek+yv
Question for anyone reading, why do I see some comments (like this one) greyed out? Never understood it.

Is it something like a downvoted comment? I fail to see a downvote button (which I am happy about).

replies(2): >>nojvek+2K2 >>pas+KD4
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28. angra_+Hg2[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 12:39:14
>>dublin+c4
> Offsetting income tax would be a massive handout to the rich, who have been and continue to be the greatest contributors to carbon emissions.

I'm not sure how these two ideas make sense in your head. If you implement a carbon tax and the rich are the greatest contributors as you stated, one would expect them to be hit by the carbon tax as well.

In any case, I personally see an income tax as a strange thing to have in the context of a discussion wherein taxing undesirable behavior is seen as a way of disincentivizing it.

At the very minimum free the working class and lower-middle class from income tax.

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29. nojvek+2K2[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 15:30:55
>>angra_+Bf2
If a comment goes below 0 (total votes), it gets greyed out.

I've found HN pretty divided when it comes topics like energy/climate/electric vehicles, immigration and foreign policy.

Before I used to feel bad, now I somewhat expect to be downvoted bringing up anything that doesn't fit someone's worldview.

I lived a decade in Seattle, WA which is a strong blue/liberal state as it goes. Sometimes pretty extreme. Now I am in Florida which is now a solid red state since Trump. It's interesting to see how the thought bubbles and world views have formed.

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30. brlewi+zS2[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 16:06:55
>>jcfrei+Yv
How about redistributing the CO2 tax as cuts in payroll and income taxes? That would benefit the working population and create a lot of replacement jobs.
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31. brlewi+DT2[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 16:12:03
>>dublin+c4
In the U.S. capital gains and dividends are taxed at a low rate to benefit the rich, and "Income tax" is a working-class thing. Maybe the OP was referring to the U.S. concept of income tax.
32. whydoi+4V2[view] [source] 2024-01-29 16:18:00
>>zug_zu+(OP)
A carbon tax will make the problem worse. To make up for the profit losses from the tax, business will produce and sell more goods - actually increasi g the pollution put in the air.
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33. scoofy+fp3[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 18:14:50
>>nojvek+yv
>The biggest mistake any democratic government can make is life more expensive and miserable for their population.

>That seldom goes well.

We are the richest nation in the world, so calling life "miserable" is hyperbole beyond belief. You talk about this like it's a new problem.

We have been trying to get a carbon tax since literally 1992, but the response is always the type of nonsense your suggesting, which is designed to be feel-good bs.

If we want to stop climate change, we have to change our behavior, period. We could have done that slowly, but we chose to not do it at all.

If you're worried about life being miserable... buckle up.

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34. trimet+BI3[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 19:24:58
>>ianai+5c2
I maybe don't understand the point of downvoting. Am I unwelcome on HN because of a differing opinion that strikes actual thought about a topic that is overwhelmingly run by a one sided story of solar good?

It would be fine if it didn't prevent me from replying. But since it does, it feels exactly like you covering my mouth while you yell in my face.

It surely doesn't make me think that I should vote for solar. If anything it makes me sure that people aren't doing any critical thinking. Aren't interested in scientific debate. And are simply pushing a marketing agenda without discussion. The Nazis did the same thing. I'll take CO2 over a world where we can't speak any day. It inspires me to rally against solar. Surely if it was scientifically sound it would be easy to defend without covering my mouth?

Go ahead and downvote again. It says everything I need to know about YC and HN and the kind of regard that you people have for human life, which is apparently none.

An echo chamber of lies and self serving agenda. Certainly not a place for science. And definitely not for the betterment of the environment. It's disgusting in short.

35. jjjjj5+tN3[view] [source] 2024-01-29 19:45:24
>>zug_zu+(OP)
I've been hearing for over a decade that carbon taxes are the solution. I've also been hearing that Republicans are standing in the way of this solution.

What I've never heard is an explanation of why some sensible, well-run scandinavian country hasn't already implemented this and brought their emissions down to zero.

If there are simple solutions to this problem then why hasn't some country already implemented them?

replies(2): >>K0nser+Ve4 >>_Tev+Cre
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36. trimet+GW3[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 20:25:13
>>ianai+5c2
Okay, I'm going to give you the Great Recession, despite the fact that it was temporary which is counter to your argument. And despite the fact that you can't tell if it's causal or not. For all we know, people drove less because they had no job to drive to. And in response, gasoline prices went up to compensate for lesser sales, while operating costs remained unchanged. Or, in short, gas prices went up because we drove less. A similar argument could be made for Europe today. High gas prices, because they drive less. Not less than they used to, but less. Meanwhile operating costs are the same.

But let's take it. So the assumption is that there is an alternative that is better than gasoline. Nuclear is largely dominant on the coasts and gasoline usage is roughly half for goods delivery across the middle of the country where everything is coal powered. So at least for the moment, do you prefer reliance on gasoline or coal for goods delivery?

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/use-of-energy/transporta...

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37. barbaz+k34[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 20:52:40
>>jcfrei+Yv
Have a look at https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/carbon-pricing-in-canada-wha... about the Canadian carbon tax and how rebates can work.
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38. K0nser+Ve4[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 21:45:13
>>jjjjj5+tN3
Sweden has had a carbon tax since 1991 and has almost halved co2 emissions since.

Sources:

https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/sweden

https://government.se/government-policy/swedens-carbon-tax/s...

replies(1): >>jjjjj5+mL6
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39. pas+KD4[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-30 00:19:21
>>angra_+Bf2
downvote buttons appear somewhere above ~500 karma and as a comment gets old the downvote button disappears
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40. sobani+6B5[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-30 10:15:48
>>Adrian+e4
Weighted average prices up to €2.40: https://brandstofdata.nl/brandstof/benzine/2022
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41. Shocka+9k6[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-30 15:23:04
>>ianai+b1
If gas was magically $16 a gallon tomorrow, it would amplify inflation. Markets and their workers would demand wage increases, which would of course trickle to everything else.

And yes, imagine what this would look like at $20 a gallon :/

replies(1): >>michae+vW6
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42. jjjjj5+mL6[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-30 17:20:05
>>K0nser+Ve4
The US has dropped them 25% over the same time period, so Sweden has done 25 percentage points better. That's less than a 1% compounded drop for those 35 years, and that's assuming that all of the delta was attributable to carbon taxes. That's not a very convincing case.
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43. michae+vW6[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-30 18:10:39
>>Shocka+9k6
There's a fascinating book that explores this exact thing, in $1/gal increments. Worth reading.
replies(1): >>Shocka+9za
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44. Shocka+9za[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-31 18:28:58
>>michae+vW6
Well you gotta drop the book name with that nugget!
replies(1): >>michae+B9b
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45. michae+B9b[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-31 21:34:24
>>Shocka+9za
https://www.timesunion.com/opinion/article/20-gasoline-don-t... is a short opinion piece on it with some links and such.
replies(1): >>Shocka+Tcd
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46. Shocka+Tcd[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-02-01 16:19:30
>>michae+B9b
Thanks for that link. I'd love to see how the author factors in inflation with the thought experiment. Reviews on Amazon don't mention this at all unfortunately.
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47. _Tev+Cre[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-02-01 22:30:28
>>jjjjj5+tN3
It is not simple. Carbon tax is useless without carbon tariffs, which have high political costs. Not to mention without any kind of carbon dividends the whole scheme would be extremely unpopular.

So everyone is just pushing half solutions and talking a lot. Politicians will never go for hard solutions, especially when everyone is satisfied by talking about magic pills like "green deal", "more renewables" or (from current top comment) "climate advocacy" and "citizen engagement".

People just love talking. And feeling good about it.

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