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[parent] [thread] 59 comments
1. cedws+(OP)[view] [source] 2023-11-19 20:49:18
The only power MS has is soft power as a backer. Will that win over the board's actual power? If MS pulls investment it will be a catastrophic blow.
replies(5): >>bilal4+92 >>morale+T2 >>manyos+s4 >>Simon_+L4 >>bossyT+Ye
2. bilal4+92[view] [source] 2023-11-19 20:58:35
>>cedws+(OP)
pulling investment would be a hard power. Imagine if Microsoft says the change in leadership and idiotic board means the contract is done, no more compute for openAI and then goes on to back Sam Altmans new company

openai will be writing papers and asking for donations within a weeks time at that point as the rest of openAI quits

replies(4): >>dontup+e3 >>kranke+h4 >>dragon+V5 >>fnordp+96
3. morale+T2[view] [source] 2023-11-19 21:01:59
>>cedws+(OP)
Yeah, MS leaving is the absolute end of OpenAI (and for all practical purposes the end of Ilya's career). It's Satya's call now, he's not happy and wants @sama back.

Next week is going to be interesting!

replies(4): >>kranke+Z3 >>SV_Bub+c4 >>jug+5k >>morale+Bx2
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4. dontup+e3[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 21:03:14
>>bilal4+92
.. and MS takes a massive hit financially as they're hardpdroven as an unreliable cloud service.
replies(2): >>toomuc+x5 >>tempno+Oj
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5. kranke+Z3[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 21:06:16
>>morale+T2
What a wild idea. You actually think of the most esteemed AI researchers will have trouble finding funding after this? Someone somewhere will give him money.

We’re in an arms race. Ilya is Otto Hahn.

replies(3): >>morale+Va >>JoeCor+Rm >>morale+VE2
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6. SV_Bub+c4[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 21:06:59
>>morale+T2
Why would I not believe that Meta or Google or anyone really come in or replace Microsoft?

You don’t think they’re kicking themselves that Microsoft got the deal?

replies(2): >>morale+f9 >>pyb+zj
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7. kranke+h4[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 21:07:26
>>bilal4+92
In this imaginary hypothesis you don’t think some other giant will fund them?
replies(1): >>bilal4+M4
8. manyos+s4[view] [source] 2023-11-19 21:08:30
>>cedws+(OP)
Would be a catastrophic blow to MS too.
9. Simon_+L4[view] [source] 2023-11-19 21:09:56
>>cedws+(OP)
That's the choice isn't it. Either reinstall Sam Altman and sack the board, or move the funding to whatever entity he goes and sets up next.
replies(2): >>static+n9 >>sdento+Rh
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10. bilal4+M4[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 21:10:05
>>kranke+h4
without altman who would want to come in and fund the folks who made this decision ? Fire youre CEO on friday, hire him back on Saturday ??

esp if Altman takes the majority of the folks from money making side

replies(1): >>bossyT+gf
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11. toomuc+x5[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 21:14:20
>>dontup+e3
No one is going to leave Microsoft because of some amateur hour non profit board fuckery that had Microsoft stepping in as the adult. You don’t tell your partner investing billions of dollars of value you’re about to fire a CEO over perspective differences in a very public way, coloring it as malfeasance or dishonesty, and you think someone is ever going to take you seriously again?

Anyone with even a basic level of business sense isn’t going to hold Microsoft responsible in a negative light for prudent reactions to volatile partner behaviors. These are not just startup cloud credits being given to OpenAI.

replies(2): >>dragon+m6 >>dontup+L7
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12. dragon+V5[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 21:16:11
>>bilal4+92
> pulling investment would be a hard power. Imagine if Microsoft says the change in leadership and idiotic board means the contract is done, no more compute for openAI and then goes on to back Sam Altmans new company

...losing their licenses to OpenAI's technology and thus the Azure OpenAI service offering for which they have enterprise customers who went with them because Microsoft is the secure, enterprise vendor whose reliability they have learned to count on.

Good way to make the "Nobody got fired for hiring Microsoft" that followed the same thing for IBM a thing of the past.

Yeah, with the right people, Sam's company might eventually give Microsoft a technically-adequate replacement technology, but Microsoft's enterprise position isn't founded on technical adequacy alone.

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13. fnordp+96[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 21:17:09
>>bilal4+92
Unless sam Altman is actually GPT4 and is typing like mad at all times I don’t see how this impacts OpenAI in the least. There are plenty of suitors waiting for a chance to back OpenAI and forge such close partnerships. Sam is a talking head, backing his venture is backing vaporware until it’s not. OpenAI is here and now, and even if he churns senior leadership and line people, their advantage is so extreme at the present it’ll be a few years of disruption before anyone has caught up, it’s when that happens it’s more likely to be Claude than some new venture.
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14. dragon+m6[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 21:18:28
>>toomuc+x5
> No one is going to leave Microsoft because of some amateur hour non profit board fuckery that had Microsoft stepping in as the adult.

But will they leave Microsoft (or, at least, be less inclined to rely on Microsoft in the future where competitors exsit) because of Microsoft terminating a relationship on which their access to a technology at the core of an enterprise service that enterprise customers rely on is based?

replies(1): >>toomuc+d7
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15. toomuc+d7[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 21:22:35
>>dragon+m6
Microsoft will make the case that those customers should onboard to Microsoft offerings when at parity due to the unreliability of OpenAIs governance. And they won’t be wrong. Enterprise customers don’t want to hear about a critical vendor staging a board coup on Bloomberg, with a bunch of key employees quitting in solidarity, and then reading only a day or two later “on second thought, we were wrong, CEO is coming back.” This will make your vendor/third party risk team very twitchy. This will make executive leadership give the command down the chain to constantly explore alternatives.

OpenAI’s actions do not give people who approve tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in spend the warm fuzzy feeling. Microsoft knows exactly the consistency and stability these customers desire. They are the conduit by which value flows from OpenAI to Microsoft customers until Microsoft can deliver the value themselves.

(also why people get fed Teams vs Slack; because of who is making the purchasing decision, and why it’s being made)

replies(1): >>toomuc+lM
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16. dontup+L7[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 21:25:19
>>toomuc+x5
"Sorry, I don't have to worry about this sort of thing with AWS"

They get hacked by foreign governments due to their utter incompetence a lot less, too.

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17. morale+f9[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 21:32:48
>>SV_Bub+c4
>Why would I not believe that Meta or Google or anyone really come in or replace Microsoft?

Because they already do well on their own, Meta is doing exceptionally well actually.

It's better business for them if OpenAI just burns into the ground and leaves the cake up for grabs again. It doesn't take a lot of brain power to see that.

The only thing that has sent Google into "Code Red" in it's whole history has been OpenAI. They'd love to see it evaporate, and now they're not even spending a dime!

replies(1): >>fzzzy+Kn
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18. static+n9[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 21:33:22
>>Simon_+L4
I've seen people say this but why would Microsoft fund a new Altman startup instead of spending that money on developing their own AI owned by Microsoft?
replies(2): >>siva7+7j >>tstrim+vX
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19. morale+Va[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 21:39:59
>>kranke+Z3
Are you even following this?

>You actually think of the most esteemed AI researchers will have trouble finding funding after this?

Plenty of those actually left already ...

Ilya is good but is one of many, and by many I mean there's 100s of equally capable researchers, many of those with more flexible morals. Note: I'm being generous to Ilya and taking him at face value on being the self-proclaimed AI messiah that is keeping us from the destruction of the world.

Thanks Ilya, but money is money and investors would definitely prefer to put their money in a for-profit than a non-profit. This is even more true after this whole fiasco.

replies(1): >>malfis+Rn
20. bossyT+Ye[view] [source] 2023-11-19 21:58:20
>>cedws+(OP)
That's actually hard power. MS is in a position to destroy OpenAI
replies(2): >>alecco+Tf >>croes+sB
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21. bossyT+gf[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:00:05
>>bilal4+M4
This. The OpenAI board as of now looks incompetent by sacking and then trying to rehire their most public figure in the span of a few days. Lacks determination, confidence and commitment
replies(1): >>gizmon+Ao
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22. alecco+Tf[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:02:55
>>bossyT+Ye
Any other FAANG would happily fill that position if MS drops the ball.
replies(3): >>sillys+xj >>indeci+gm >>unix_f+in
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23. sdento+Rh[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:12:46
>>Simon_+L4
Or set off a new bidding war for both the researchers that quit and the pile of new startups... There's no rule that stays M$ would have to be the only bidder for the new venture(s).
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24. siva7+7j[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:18:17
>>static+n9
Like Google did?
replies(1): >>static+Tn
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25. sillys+xj[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:20:14
>>alecco+Tf
Bingo. Compute is fungible.

It would be ironic if everyone killed OpenAI by denying them compute though.

Still, OpenAI is a peacock feather in Microsoft’s cap. They’re either bluffing, foolish, or prescient to let it go.

replies(1): >>purple+nB
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26. pyb+zj[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:20:22
>>SV_Bub+c4
Or, even more likely, Apple.
replies(1): >>unix_f+bp
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27. tempno+Oj[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:21:16
>>dontup+e3
Uh, you have a nonprofit board firing a CEO at a board meeting that doesn't even sound like was properly noticed. Was the board president even given time to attend?

And Microsoft has total rights to the models and weights, so they can CONTINUE their services and then spin up with Sam's new company.

replies(2): >>static+Il >>jkaplo+yw
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28. jug+5k[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:23:06
>>morale+T2
MS leaving would also be a disaster for subsequent development of Bing, Windows Copilot, Office Copilot, Teams AI, various strategically important Azure service like Semantic Search etc. They’ve gone all in on OpenAI LLM’s, support nothing else and have coupled all their AI to them.
replies(2): >>manner+um >>mr_toa+wM
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29. static+Il[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:30:44
>>tempno+Oj
*Uh, you have a nonprofit board firing a CEO at a board meeting that doesn't even sound like was properly noticed. Was the board president even given time to attend?*

I think it's reasonable to assume that even a controversial board checked with their lawyer and did what was legally required. Especially as nobody involved seems to be claiming otherwise.

replies(1): >>dboreh+4E
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30. indeci+gm[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:33:42
>>alecco+Tf
Does any other cloud provider have the extra compute necessary to run ChatGPT just lying around?

With the current shortage of hardware, it's not as simple as "scaling up" if the resources literally don't exist.

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31. manner+um[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:34:59
>>jug+5k
> Microsoft has certain rights to OpenAI’s intellectual property so if their relationship were to break down, Microsoft would still be able to run OpenAI’s current models on its servers.

https://archive.is/jUJEH

replies(1): >>lucubr+et
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32. JoeCor+Rm[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:37:14
>>kranke+Z3
OpenAI will absolutely be able to raise money again, but it will likely never be on the same scale and will also likely have some serious safeguards in the contract language.

Whether you agree with investors agreeing with firing Sam or not, future investors will absolutely be nervous about sinking serious money in a company that split it's board without talking to key partners/investors first

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33. unix_f+in[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:39:03
>>alecco+Tf
I doubt anybody else would take the same risk, not with the board still in power.
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34. fzzzy+Kn[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:41:12
>>morale+f9
This isn't true, Facebook put google into code red and they wasted years on Google+.
replies(1): >>morale+Qs
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35. malfis+Rn[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:41:50
>>morale+Va
Plenty haven't left. Depending on which article you read it's between 3 and 5. Which is nothing for a company the size of OpenAI
replies(1): >>morale+ws
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36. static+Tn[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:41:55
>>siva7+7j
Google is at best only partially funding Anthropic, Amazon committed "up to 4 billion" in funding. They have their own competing technology in development.
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37. gizmon+Ao[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:45:22
>>bossyT+gf
I don't think the board is trying to rehire him though, more like being pressured to do so against their wishes.
replies(1): >>peyton+VE
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38. unix_f+bp[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 22:48:25
>>pyb+zj
They would want a lot of control over the company
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39. morale+ws[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 23:06:56
>>malfis+Rn
Yeah man, whatever you say! :^)

https://twitter.com/rowancheung/status/1726060441103958481

replies(1): >>sainez+ty
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40. morale+Qs[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 23:09:08
>>fzzzy+Kn
Google+ was an accessory thing. It was like "ye, we should also have a social network" and it didn't work and then what happened to them? Literally nothing, source: its stock.

OpenAI is a different beast, they (or some LLM) could displace Google as the main provider of information to the world. You just don't know what you're talking about, lol.

1: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidphelan/2023/01/23/how-chat...

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41. lucubr+et[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 23:11:22
>>manner+um
And in exchange for those rights, OpenAI has certain rights to compute credits. Microsoft doesn't get to break contract and keep what they got out of the deal while ceasing to supply what provided as part of the deal. That's called theft.
replies(1): >>blacko+9A
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42. jkaplo+yw[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 23:31:28
>>tempno+Oj
If they had written consents from a majority of the board to remove Altman and Brockman from the board, then depending on the applicable nonprofit law and corporate governance documents, the board removals may very well have been legally conducted without need for a properly noticed board meeting. (For the actual firing of Altman, that might have been legal either through written consents or through a board meeting after the removals of Altman and Brockman.)

Having no information on what laws and governance documents apply to OpenAI or on what steps the board took, I express no opinion on whether the legal requirements were actually met, but it’s possible they were.

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43. sainez+ty[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 23:42:40
>>morale+ws
What is with the misinformation.

The original Verge article says (with no given sources): > missing a key 5PM PT deadline by which many OpenAI staffers were set to resign.

The tweet removes the qualifier: > The staff at OpenAI set a 5PM deadline for the entire board to resign, or else they quit and join Sam in his new company.

And you seem to parrot that point even though it is well past that deadline and no news of mass resignations

replies(1): >>morale+zC
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44. blacko+9A[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-19 23:53:27
>>lucubr+et
Sure, you'll prove that out in a court over this week?
replies(1): >>lucubr+WE
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45. purple+nB[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-20 00:00:42
>>sillys+xj
Not at this magnitude. If you read the latest Semianalysis article, Microsoft’s current infra project is the largest infra project currently being undertaken by humankind (not sure if that’s overstatement, but regardless, $50B largely and competently directed towards (Open)AI-supporting hardware isn’t something easily replicable)
replies(1): >>a-r-t+vT
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46. croes+sB[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-20 00:01:02
>>bossyT+Ye
MS took a large bet on OpenAI and already integrated it in many of its products.

Destroying OpenAI good backfire big time.

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47. morale+zC[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-20 00:07:36
>>sainez+ty
It's all rumours yes, but I'd be inclined to believe that the majority of staff aligns with @sama, and not with Ilya and the board. If this wasn't true, Satya wouldn't be sitting right now in a room with them trying to put out the fire.
replies(1): >>timeon+xI
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48. dboreh+4E[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-20 00:15:53
>>static+Il
Difference between "legally required" and "above clown car level professionalism".
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49. peyton+VE[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-20 00:20:49
>>gizmon+Ao
They are currently in talks to rehire him. It would seem they wish to rehire him?
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50. lucubr+WE[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-20 00:20:51
>>blacko+9A
Microsoft is an enterprise company first. They're not going to break contract with a business.
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51. timeon+xI[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-20 00:41:09
>>morale+zC
This is not healthy approach. (In general. This particular drama is irrelevant for us.)

You are set on believes based on rumors.

Microsoft's power has nothing to do with OpenAI employees.

replies(1): >>morale+8F2
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52. toomuc+lM[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-20 01:06:45
>>toomuc+d7
Citation for example of my thesis:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-20/sam-altma... | https://archive.is/sv8SH ("Bloomberg: The Doomed Mission Behind Sam Altman's Shock Ouster From OpenAI")

> At the same time, companies that depend on OpenAI’s software were hastily looking at competing technologies, such as Meta Plaforms Inc.’s large language model, known as Llama. “As a startup, we are worried now. Do we continue with them or not?” said Amr Awadallah, the CEO of Vectara, which creates chatbots for corporate data.

> He said that the choice to continue with OpenAI or seek out a competitor would depend on reassurances from the company and Microsoft. “We need Microsoft to speak up and say everything is stable, we’ll continue to focus on our customers and partners,” Awadallah said. “We need to hear something like that to restore our confidence.”

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53. mr_toa+wM[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-20 01:08:46
>>jug+5k
I’d love to know what the amortisation period looks like for an LLM.
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54. a-r-t+vT[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-20 01:58:32
>>purple+nB
Apple is sitting on $162B in cash right now and would definitely benefit from OpenAI's IP.
replies(1): >>tstrim+JW
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55. tstrim+JW[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-20 02:24:39
>>a-r-t+vT
Apple doesn’t have anything close to the experience of running things “at scale” as Microsoft, Google or Amazon. Completely different levels. Apple would have challenges maintaining the update infrastructure for any of these other orgs. They simply do not exist on the same scale of compute power and management. I say this as an Apple apologist whose entire household consolidates on Apple devices and services. iCloud is simply nothing compared to the scale and capabilities of OneDrive and related services. I don’t think cash alone is enough. Proven ability to execute at scale matters.
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56. tstrim+vX[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-20 02:29:36
>>static+n9
The moat isn’t very deep or wide here. It does exist, but most FAANG (including Microsoft) should be able to overcome it with the right investments. Microsoft is probably best positioned to leverage this tech with the integration they have been pursuing across most of their products. They have probably mage better use of “OpenAI” than any other company and are in the best position to replace them.
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57. morale+Bx2[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-20 13:19:06
>>morale+T2
Update:

Satya got what he wanted, @sama joins MS to create pretty much a spin-off startup there, OpenAI on suicide watch with employees leaving, absolutely no new funding ever and a just-appointed CEO that wants to "pause" the company, lol.

Right all along!

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58. morale+VE2[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-20 13:49:30
>>kranke+Z3
Update after a day:

Whoops, there goes your Otto Hahn, lol!

replies(1): >>kranke+RL2
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59. morale+8F2[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-20 13:50:08
>>timeon+xI
Whoops, turned out to be right :^).
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60. kranke+RL2[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-11-20 14:11:41
>>morale+VE2
Otto Hahn is now saying he is very sorry and he was manipulated by the board. The plot continues.
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