Cities are becoming increasingly unaffordable and increasingly violent. I think that we are past “peak metro” and that the absolute refusal of many people to return to office work is going to result in an acceleration of out-migration from cities. This in turn will exacerbate other urban problems as the revenue base dries up and low wage employees become ever more difficult to find in urban areas.
Cities are increasingly unaffordable largely because of anti-urban, car-centric policies (zoning, infrastructure plans).
> If people want to live in cities and want to have a car-free lifestyle, then more power to you.
It's really not about what people want, it never has been. It is illegal to build walkable areas in almost all of the US. Laws need to be changed, immediately, for our well-being and the survival of our civilization. And then you can still go live in the country if you want to; it's awesome out there and you can be even further from the sprawl.
NYC crime increased 22% last year. [2]
Chicago crime increased 41% last year. [3]
[1] https://missionlocal.org/2023/01/explore-how-crime-changed-i...
[2] https://www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/news/p00071/nypd-citywide-crim...
[3] https://www.illinoispolicy.org/chicago-crime-spikes-in-2022-...
**
That said, the OP said "violent" and technically the increase was almost entirely non-violent crimes (e.g. theft).
If you want to decrease your crime rates, just make crimes more legal tips forehead.
Perception certainly matters -- perceptions of SF BART and MUNI probably are not helping ridership -- but the narrative that San Francisco has become an urban hellscape is not borne out by the data nor by my personal anecdotal experience.
but there are a lot more cases, generally in the same direction, depending on the time frame, whether it’s city vs. country, race-related, drug-related, enforcement-related, from strangers, etc.
Overall, far fewer cases are being given a lot more cover while deaths preventable with standard healthcare increase, and deaths and life-altering injuries from car accidents remain so frequent you’d need a metronome to count them.
If a homeless guy punches you in SF, would you really bother to walk to a police station and wait in line and waste a ton of time for literally nothing to happen?
There are certainly some places with dumb laws, but I’d want to see evidence that “It’s illegal to build walkable areas in most of the US”. THAT sounds like fear mongering. Every house I have ever bought has had local ordinances requiring sidewalks.
You aren’t allowed to build sidewalks and trails on land you don’t own; I guess that is illegal in the sense that trespass is illegal. Also many areas don’t have the revenue to keep up sidewalks so they don’t build them. That sounds fiscally responsible to me even if a little sad, but is also a far cry from “illegal”.
Violent crime is more prevalent in urban areas of the US than in rural areas [2].
[1] https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12281
[2] https://www.city-journal.org/article/criminal-neglect#:~:tex....
I don't have time to do a comprehensive survey of how other cities operate online crime reporting, but I'm assuming in good faith that the implication here is that San Francisco's violent crime statistics are under reported if you can't report online. It seems to me that many other cities don't allow you to report online either.
Open to having a good faith discussion on if crime stats in SF are deflated due to underreporting. My guess would be that the base rate of actual people getting assaulted by a homeless guy is pretty low - curious if you have any anecdotal evidence or data to the contrary.
The Roman empire, which existed from 27 BC to AD 395, had Rome as its capital, and while numbers are subject to discussion given the age, the floor for the density of the city of Rome back then, which had a large number of insulae, or apartment buildings, is 30,000 people/sq km. A more recent estimate put it at 72,150 people per square kilometer *. For reference, Manhattans' population density as of the 2020 census is 72,918 people per square kilometer.
This was 1,600 years ago! That is to say, there is precedent for humans living in the kinds of densities we have today, without anywhere near the kinds of technology we have. There was no electricity, no cars, no Internet back in '400. They most modern revolutionary thing was running water, and even then they used lead pipes for it and had no electrical pumps to pump it up to the 9th floor. One thing that will be familiar to modern readers is that the government came in and imposed regulations, making some buildings illegal due to height restrictions.
* https://go.gale.com/ps/i.do?id=GALE%7CA20586744&sid=googleSc....
Also, the population of Rome collapsed less than a century later.
It's property crimes that are below the insurance threshold that will just not be reported; why bother? I had cars broken into and I never reported any of them because it would be pointless; the only time I did report was when the car was stolen - and that only because I didn't want it to turn up burning somewhere and blamed on me.
The best we can realistically hope for is it staying relatively steady in nominal dollars whilst inflation burns up the purchasing power associated.
You said violence is increasing, which is fear-mongering and needs citation.
> Never before in human history have humans lived in densities that they live in modern cities
Citation badly needed. We're in a crisis of low density in almost every urban area on the planet thanks to the auto industry and zoning laws, which I'll explain below.
> I’d want to see evidence that “It’s illegal to build walkable areas in most of the US”.
Ah, so the problem here is that you're interpreting the existence of sidewalks as walkability. That's not what it means: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walkability.
Walkability is a complex concept dictated largely by zoning, the practice legally defining the type and qualities of structures that can be built. And zoning, almost everywhere in the US, prohibits walkable urban design: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=walkable+neighborhoods+illegal+due...