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How to Build the Future with Sam Altman

submitted by sandsl+(OP) on 2016-09-27 18:05:08 | 159 points 92 comments
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replies(13): >>sandsl+y >>Mz+Y2 >>koolba+A6 >>misiti+X7 >>flyosi+ib >>davecy+ti >>lifeis+jo >>razvan+4q >>weston+js >>scobar+yu >>omegan+tv >>liquim+3E >>icantd+JK
1. sandsl+y[view] [source] 2016-09-27 18:09:43
>>sandsl+(OP)
And here are the download links for the transcript and audio files if anyone is interested in tuning in offline:

Transcript: https://goo.gl/8z2h1b

Audio: https://goo.gl/D8h0NU

replies(1): >>ycliu+R83
2. Mz+Y2[view] [source] 2016-09-27 18:28:40
>>sandsl+(OP)
Unfortunately, there is a bit too much unstated assumption of "just be lucky (fortunate) as hell in multiple metrics from an incredibly young age." This seriously undermines the value of this advice for at least 99% of people.
replies(5): >>tlb+s4 >>hood_s+B4 >>lint_r+G5 >>namank+58 >>sama+Ed
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3. tlb+s4[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 18:39:18
>>Mz+Y2
If one did state that assumption, is there something useful one can then say about how to be lucky? Or can you give an example of a "here's how I succeeded at something, the same strategies might work for you" article that addresses luck in an actionable way?
replies(1): >>Mz+o6
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4. hood_s+B4[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 18:40:38
>>Mz+Y2
Frankly there's no point in giving this kind of advice to the 99% you're talking about (I include myself in that group). Most people do not have the opportunities (most important) or capability (still important) to do anything these people do.
replies(1): >>Mz+M5
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5. lint_r+G5[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 18:47:09
>>Mz+Y2
One of the hardest things to accept about life is that there are no guarantees. You play with the hand you're dealt.
replies(1): >>projek+6b
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6. Mz+M5[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 18:47:47
>>hood_s+B4
As someone who is both a homeless woman and the top ranked woman on HN, I don't remotely agree with you.
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7. Mz+o6[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 18:51:47
>>tlb+s4
There are actually studies that quantify some of the differences in behavior between people who are lucky and people who are not. I think the actionable advice here wouod have to do with what pre-conditions must exist before this advice is meaningful and useful. Having some idea of what kind of situation you must create for yourself first would make it easier for people to recognize whether or not this advice can be applied to their life and, if not, what personal issues need to be addressed before this is useful advice.
replies(1): >>YuriNi+n9
8. koolba+A6[view] [source] 2016-09-27 18:52:47
>>sandsl+(OP)
> Jack: I'm Jack, Sam's brother, and we are here in our backyard, where we also live with our other brother.

Wait do all three of you live together in one house in your 30s? That's awesome!

EDIT: Just to be clear, this comment is in no way intended to be sarcastic! I really think it's amazing for three brothers to live together in their 30s. The notion that each has to go their separate way after one turns 18/21/25 is bullshit. Life is more fun together and there's inherent economies of scale as well (both financial and social).

replies(3): >>chamak+k8 >>sama+ud >>wcchan+Dd
9. misiti+X7[view] [source] 2016-09-27 18:58:45
>>sandsl+(OP)
"One of the only arbitrage opportunities left is time." - I like that, and definitely believe it. First time I have heard it also.
replies(1): >>weston+su
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10. namank+58[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 18:59:53
>>Mz+Y2
Seems to me, the advice is all about surrounding yourself with good people.
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11. chamak+k8[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:02:00
>>koolba+A6
I agree. I'm from Puerto Rico, where I think it's more common to live and grow up within driving distance of a big part of your family.

Now as an adult I've moved to the US, where it's much more common to move far from your family. I grew up expecting that I would always have my close family near, and I still struggle with the fact that's probably not going to be the case.

I would absolutely love to live near or with my brother and parents still. Definitely would need a way that would allow us to have private spaces when we want, but I miss being able to see close family with just 30 minutes of traveling.

replies(1): >>icebra+Qd
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12. YuriNi+n9[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:09:47
>>Mz+o6
Would love to read these studies, do you have some references?
replies(1): >>Mz+qb
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13. projek+6b[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:23:28
>>lint_r+G5
But we should remember that when the cards are dealt, we are not alone. Some of us may have better cards than others, but a combination could be further stronger still.
14. flyosi+ib[view] [source] 2016-09-27 19:24:38
>>sandsl+(OP)
I'm sure this will get downvoted into oblivion, but why should I or other engineers/entrepreneurs look at Sam Altman as a massive startup success story when his lone startup Loopt never really achieved product-market fit, and ended up in a firesale?

Across 5 funding rounds, Crunchbase lists Loopt as having raised $39 million and then was acquired (acqui-hired?) for $43 million. He didn't create any multiples of value for his investors. Loopt wasn't a breakout hit like so many other YC startups have been. It was certainly one of the first interesting location-based apps in the App Store, but soon was surrounded by other location-based apps and never really appeared to surface and gain traction.

Obviously Sam runs YC now and has dramatically improved it, but in the lens of being an entrepreneur, isn't he still essentially unproven, and not a success story in the startup world?

replies(15): >>drzaiu+Tb >>marmad+jc >>potato+xc >>sama+pd >>tptace+Hd >>sfsylv+Pd >>elmar+Re >>lpolov+Rf >>the_co+pk >>lifeis+cp >>cma+BD >>dota_f+XI >>DrNuke+NJ >>bexp+zO >>Gatsky+VU
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15. Mz+qb[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:25:44
>>YuriNi+n9
https://www.psychologytoday.com/articles/201005/make-your-ow...

http://www.bing.com/search?q=luck+studies&go=Submit&qs=n&for...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/michakaufman/2015/01/30/embracin...

http://www.codusoperandi.com/posts/increasing-your-luck-surf...

replies(1): >>joaori+Hr
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16. drzaiu+Tb[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:29:26
>>flyosi+ib
While we're at it, how about Mark Cuban? Did Broadcast.com ever work past a basic stage? Did it ever have huge, if any, positive revenues? It really sounds like he bought a domain name and fucked around a little with html and won big in the dotcom craze.

A lot of "heroes" in this world are fairly fraudulent. Worse, some went from young tech luminaries to older VC sharks with questionable ethics like Mark Andreeson.

I think coding and tech, in general, is mostly a meritocracy, but on the business end its practically the lottery. Right time, right place and other luck of the draws determine financial success just as much as the merit of the product, if not more so.

replies(2): >>hugs+0k >>eilian+Ft
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17. marmad+jc[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:32:41
>>flyosi+ib
They say the lesser musicians become music teachers, maybe there's a similar thing here.

Tbh this advice reads like a brainwash in making yourself more exploitable.

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18. potato+xc[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:34:38
>>flyosi+ib
I don't think this has to be a negative question, and can be constructive (positive) if worded differently. If anything, I'd want to learn what I can do to follow a similar path

I remember reading PG saying that Sama is one of the brightest entrepreneurs he has met, and I always wanted to hear the backstory since Loopt is the only data point we have from the outside.

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19. sama+pd[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:41:20
>>flyosi+ib
I turned out to be a better investor than an entrepreneur (though somewhat to my surprise running YC is more about running a company than being an investor).

I think I've learned a lot from working closely with entrepreneurs that run massively successful companies that's worth sharing.

If you disagree, no one is making you watch this. You're free to hit the back button.

replies(7): >>npezol+3f >>loceng+th >>MediaS+Wt >>thesma+Hx >>surfmi+2D >>dota_f+0F >>askafr+oG
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20. sama+ud[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:41:59
>>koolba+A6
They're in their 20s but yeah--we have a good time!
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21. wcchan+Dd[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:42:38
>>koolba+A6
I couldn't agree more. This past year my life goal was to relocate closer to family. When I graduated college I lavished at the taste of freedom and independence. After experiencing that for 5 years, that filial bond was something that was irreplaceable. Especially considering I have 0 drive to have children any time soon, it was hard to find any kind of replacement. I'm happily married but it's definitely a different feeling that my wife should never be expected to fill.
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22. sama+Ed[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:42:43
>>Mz+Y2
Luck is a massive, massive factor in many ways, but I generally think you should make decisions as if it weren't a factor.
replies(2): >>Mz+Fe >>venkyn+nm
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23. tptace+Hd[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:43:17
>>flyosi+ib
By top 10 YC startup standards, Paul Graham's Viaweb success isn't all that interesting either.

But, of course: if the model they're building with YC works, this is the outcome you'd expect. YC wouldn't be very interesting if its outcomes were capped to Viaweb's and Loopt's.

replies(1): >>CptJam+bi
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24. sfsylv+Pd[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:43:50
>>flyosi+ib
>in the lens of being an entrepreneur

This is a valid point, but the majority of the content in this video (and in this series) is to help entrepreneurs. As the President of YC, his entire life now is spent helping entrepreneurs and given his track record in helping companies becoming very serious brands out of quite literally nothing [1] is clearly important and something worth listening to.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Y_Combinator_startups

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25. icebra+Qd[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:43:51
>>chamak+k8
While the US has a more mobile population, most Americans still live within half an hour of where they grew up: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/12/24/upshot/24up-fa...
replies(1): >>chamak+me
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26. chamak+me[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:48:05
>>icebra+Qd
Oh, interesting! Don't know why I would have assumed it to be less than that. Thanks for this article, good to learn something new.
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27. Mz+Fe[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:50:22
>>sama+Ed
While I agree that you should "plan for the worst, hope for the best," YC started with a very idealistic concept that a couple of guys with a couple of computers and a few thousand dollars could seek to be Ramen Profitable (instead of seeking to be the next unicorn). You personally benefitted from that philosophy. It would be nice if the tradition that YC is for the common man with big dreams and little capital were continued.
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28. elmar+Re[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:51:32
>>flyosi+ib
I think is unfair to classify the entrepreneur solely based on their exit multiple, my view only people that work daily with the entrepreneur can be the judges.
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29. npezol+3f[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:52:20
>>sama+pd
I find you learn the most from mistakes, either your own or from others.
replies(2): >>Alupis+kE >>rhizom+SE
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30. lpolov+Rf[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 19:58:30
>>flyosi+ib
To add another data point in support of Sam's comment, I think one can build a good understanding of entrepreneurship and how to increase the chances of success without having been a hugely successful founder. I joined VC four years ago because I wanted to learn more about early-stage startups before starting my own, and I ended up falling in love with the job. I've learned a ton about factors of success and failure over the last few years.

My belief is that there's a large chunk of building a company that I will never learn or understand without becoming a founder myself. Maybe that's 50% of success. However, for the other 50%, I can actually learn things better than many founders because they have a sample size of one or two or three startups that they have started, while I can look across fifty or a hundred companies that I am intimately involved in and analyze what is different between the ones that become huge and the ones that do not. I think this cross-sectional pattern matching is what makes a lot of VCs and investors sources of good advice (in some startup topics) even though they might not have built huge companies themselves.

replies(1): >>mattma+Wp
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31. loceng+th[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 20:09:37
>>sama+pd
YC's leading metric is the success of its investments, without that foundation then all other decisions will be off. Starting off on the right foot is more important IMHO than being fantastic at running a company.
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32. CptJam+bi[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 20:14:23
>>tptace+Hd
Paul Graham started Y Combinator, which is a company.

Paul Graham was a borderline founder of Reddit, as well.

replies(2): >>dwaxe+Gl >>tptace+pw
33. davecy+ti[view] [source] 2016-09-27 20:16:21
>>sandsl+(OP)
Main takeaway:

Work on something together w/ people you like and on an idea that you are truly excited about and strongly opinionated on. Shit will get hard and most people will quit too soon (esp if they don't like each other or don't care about what they're doing). Don't be those people.

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34. hugs+0k[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 20:26:07
>>drzaiu+Tb
There's yet another kind of startup founder, who merely starts a successful company that makes millions of dollars per year and is still in business almost a decade later. The company doesn't fail, but it doesn't have a huge blow-out liquidity event, either. The founder remains heads-down, in the trenches, with no interest in going the VC route. Regardless, they're in a boring B2B niche, so you'll never read about them.
replies(1): >>nibs+Cy
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35. the_co+pk[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 20:28:49
>>flyosi+ib
Same reason why we read books. Most book authors just write on stuff. They are very good at communicating a topic clearly but haven't 'achieved' much themselves.

Same with Sam. His observations and insights are very useful and he is able to communicate them clearly.

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36. dwaxe+Gl[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 20:37:44
>>CptJam+bi
By YC startup standards again, Reddit isn't a very successful company. The amount of early investment that went into it has certainly paid off, but monetization is a seriously hard problem for them.
replies(1): >>CptJam+Zq
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37. venkyn+nm[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 20:41:59
>>sama+Ed
By luck do mean like, riding a wave (unknowingly) just when it has started which turns out to be a pretty huge wave thus enabling you to build something massive.
38. lifeis+jo[view] [source] 2016-09-27 20:55:26
>>sandsl+(OP)
It strikes me you need to slice him thin and use a lot of glue and even then I doubt you could build much more than a big yurt.

Maybe I need to read the article more carefully.

(A little more seriously the idea of finding the Venn overlap point between Good At, Love Doing, Adds Value is nice. Does not help me find my next big idea but at least is a filter)

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39. lifeis+cp[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 21:01:04
>>flyosi+ib
To be fair, Warren Buffet has never been much of a traditional entrepreneur but I would certainly listen if he gave me advice on my business.

Perhaps some people are players, some are coaches.

replies(1): >>enrage+zC
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40. mattma+Wp[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 21:06:05
>>lpolov+Rf
I watch football. By watching football I have built a good understanding of football management and how to increase the chances of success without having been a hugely successful football manager.

Maybe that's 50% of success of being a football manager. I can learn more than other football managers because I can watch lots of football games on Sky Sports.

That's why many top premiership teams hire their managers by finding the people who watch the most football games on TV.

EDIT: I'm sure there's plenty here who have been in more startups than me, but in the 4 or so I've been in, I've heard conversations between founders and investors plenty of times.

Often little of what comes out of the founders mouth is based in reality. Sometimes they're not seeing reality as it really is, sometimes they're painting a rosier picture, sometimes they're outright lying, sometimes they're tired and not thinking straight, sometimes they've got obsessed by something utterly irrelevant. Sometimes they're not actually listening to the staff, or not even asking the right questions.

As a VC or researcher or whatever, you're not actually playing the game. You're not on the team, you're not on the field, you're not even on the side-lines. You're seeing a different game than's being played.

replies(1): >>lpolov+rw
41. razvan+4q[view] [source] 2016-09-27 21:07:18
>>sandsl+(OP)
Why is Sam's brother the one interviewing him?? I find it slightly cringy.

What authority does he have / what has he done, that makes him a good candidate to interview Sam? Is this meant to help shine some light on Sam's brother and his startup?

replies(1): >>davegu+mt
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42. CptJam+Zq[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 21:12:45
>>dwaxe+Gl
Reddit's last round valued them at $500 million, and it is something like the 25th most visited site on the Internet.

That's a successful company by any standard.

replies(3): >>Alupis+ds >>dsacco+Jx >>mbesto+Py
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43. joaori+Hr[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 21:18:55
>>Mz+qb
In addition to those, mostly as an example on how to start a actionable framework on luck, there's James Austin's 4 definitions of luck, see e.g. pmarca's old blog entry about it: http://pmarchive.com/luck_and_the_entrepreneur.html
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44. Alupis+ds[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 21:23:52
>>CptJam+Zq
> Reddit's last round valued them at $500 million

> That's a successful company by any standard.

Simply being "valued" at some dollar amount doesn't actually mean success. Revenue and positive net profit mean success...

replies(1): >>Reedx+vy
45. weston+js[view] [source] 2016-09-27 21:24:09
>>sandsl+(OP)
I especially liked the point about not seeing criticism or lack of attention as necessarily being red flags.

It's sort of counter-intuitive that this would be the case because after something fairly radically new becomes popular there's so much positive said about it.

It's an easy leap to assume that praise was always present, and that lack of it in your case is a signal that what you're working on won't succeed—but it seems like in actuality, when you're doing something novel enough people aren't going to 'get it' immediately by definition.

It's also easy to assume that those you speak to about your work will approach it with the optimism and energy with which you regard it, and without a little optimism and sustained attention it's easy to miss the potential or even comprehend the significance at all of some new idea.

Even having acknowledge this concept in the past, I still needed the reminder in the video to see I was potentially making the mistake again in my own project. It's a good point to remind yourself of periodically.

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46. davegu+mt[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 21:33:48
>>razvan+4q
These are fairly standard questions for the "How to Build the Future" series[0]. Sam normally does the interviewing, but in this case he had his brother ask the questions. Sam has been asking a lot of entrepreneurs these same questions (the Musk interview was particularly good[1]). Sam having his brother ask those same questions of him didn't come across as particularly cringy to me. It would have been more awkward if he read the questions and then answered them.

[0]https://www.ycombinator.com/future/

[1]https://www.ycombinator.com/future/elon/

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47. eilian+Ft[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 21:36:03
>>drzaiu+Tb
could you elaborate on mark andreesson?
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48. MediaS+Wt[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 21:38:10
>>sama+pd
@Sama – Your previous failure(s?) is probably (part of) what makes you hungry. If you were already some super-rich, uber successful dude, then why commit yourself so fully to something so hard and so new? You're not some fat happy rich dude like most VCs. You've got something to prove, and that drives you. To me, your past failure is not a liability, but an asset. YC is your chance to make a mark on the world.

(I don't know if this is how you actually feel deep inside, but if it is, I wish you spoke of it so.)

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49. weston+su[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 21:44:01
>>misiti+X7
Could someone expand on that a little? (I'm assuming the intended definition of 'arbitrage' here is along the lines of "The purchase of securities on one market for immediate resale on another market in order to profit from a price discrepancy.")
50. scobar+yu[view] [source] 2016-09-27 21:45:20
>>sandsl+(OP)
The part about risk resonated so much with me. I feel exactly the same way as Sam now, but it's taken many years and experiences to arrive at that mindset. I wonder if I would've taken his advice seriously when I was younger; it seems contrary to the advice I (and many others I assume) received about risk.

To be clear, I suggest all young adults follow Sam's advice on risk.

51. omegan+tv[view] [source] 2016-09-27 21:53:01
>>sandsl+(OP)
The point about feeling drained when the startup is failing, and feeling energized when you hit something people wants is spot on. My startup failed (as most do) and since it happened I've felt that I was not made for business. But recently I watched how my brother hit a strike with his company (still small but people is super interested) and I see how that keeps you much more energized. Maybe I'll try again soon, but this time I'm starting really small till it takes traction on it's own(another usual tip I didn' listened the first time...)
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52. tptace+pw[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 22:03:56
>>CptJam+bi
Sam operates YC, which is a company. If the argument is that he lacks operational experience, and YC is a company, you've defeated your own argument.
replies(2): >>nostra+oC >>CptJam+H73
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53. lpolov+rw[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 22:04:18
>>mattma+Wp
> As a VC or researcher or whatever, you're not actually playing the game. You're not on the team, you're not on the field, you're not even on the side-lines. You're seeing a different game than's being played.

I think it's actually the opposite: if there's a good founder/investor relationship, the investor is an extended part of the team, is sometimes on the field (helping close job candidates or doing customer intros), and is often trying to help from the side-lines. Not all founder/investor relationships are this good, but some are.

To use your analogy, the founders are football players, and investors are somewhere between "football fan" and "football coach", but probably a lot closer to coach than fan. It's true that neither coaches nor fans are actually on the field playing the game, but coaches have way more insider info. For example, they watch players practice and have a deeper understanding of what each player can and cannot do, they know which players might be nursing injuries, how to motivate different types of players, etc. That doesn't mean a great coach could be a great quarterback, but I think lots of players would agree that a great coach knows a lot about how to become a better football player despite not being a football player themselves. (And to extend the analogy, I think coaches are good at helping players improve despite the fact that some players might lie or make excuses or paint rosy pictures or whatever.)

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54. thesma+Hx[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 22:17:29
>>sama+pd
> If you disagree, no one is making you watch this. You're free to hit the back button.

Why would somebody want to only consume media they agree with?

replies(1): >>djs070+gF
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55. dsacco+Jx[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 22:17:42
>>CptJam+Zq
>>Reddit's last round valued them at $500 million, and it is something like the 25th most visited site on the Internet. That's a successful company by any standard.

I think you're conflating "impressive" and "successful." I would say that based on the numbers you've given, Reddit is an impressive company (it's hard to get any company to that level of private investment and internet fame!), but it's not necessarily a successful company yet.

Being that Reddit's valuation is solely attributable to private investment and not revenue generation (so far), the only sound way to judge whether or not it is a financially successful company is based on its potential return to investors.

By the standards of most VCs in tech, a $500M exit is suboptimal, which will result in either a modest return or just getting their money back. This is not good for a firm's "batting average" when they're trying to beat the SPY with a ten year fund. They need to cover their losses (which, indutry-wide, represents approximately all of their investments), their staff and business continuity costs, their management and performance fees and still beat the market. Modest returns aren't helpful in that regard.

You also have to consider the likelihood that Reddit will transition into a mature business that can exist profitably on its own, without continually receiving significant infusions of cash. If it can't find a way to navigate out of "tech adolescence" it's not really a successful company. The last numbers I read indicated that Reddit has achieved an annual revenue of $8-10M, which is an annual return of >= 2%. Considering that the S&P's average annual return is about 7%, you could earn $10M on $500M by sticking it into an index fund and literally burning the other $25M you would have generated by doing nothing.

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56. Reedx+vy[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 22:25:22
>>Alupis+ds
What if Reddit is around for 50 years, paying dozens of employees the whole time while never making a net profit. Would that not be a successful company to essentially everyone? (except the investors)
replies(2): >>Alupis+6E >>kasey_+LL
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57. nibs+Cy[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 22:26:02
>>hugs+0k
So much more likely to succeed and so much less likely to make $100M. Definitely the surest path to $5-10M near the end of your career. If you only want <$5M perhaps being a corporate VP would be more optimal risk adjusted. This is my strong preference, I just wish there were more of a culture of that here. It could be the fact that this is a start-up forum but sustainable B2B niche business is really interesting and provides good opportunities to create wealth and do impactful work. It is merely less interesting to investors with large overhead and expectations. So it makes sense investors go big.
replies(1): >>drzaiu+oz1
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58. mbesto+Py[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 22:28:23
>>CptJam+Zq
It might be "successful" (however you define that), but $8.3M in Revenue in 2014 (and an estimated $10M in 2015) on $50M in investment (not including Conde Naste's investment) in a 10 year period for a company valued at $500M and the 25th most visited site, seems like it's under-performing.
replies(1): >>rhizom+5F
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59. nostra+oC[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 22:59:24
>>tptace+pw
As I read the grandparent, his argument is that YC's business is teaching you how to start a company, not operate one. Thus, it's relevant to prospective customers whether its leaders have experience starting successful companies, not just starting unsuccessful ones or operating successful ones. Eric Schmidt may be one of the best CEOs ever, but if your goal is to start the next Google, you're probably a lot more interested in what Larry Page has to say.

Not saying I agree, BTW - I think that binary startup success has a large skill factor, but the magnitude of that success is largely luck, and that good luck can mask bad practices to a large extent. So in my view, people with relatively minor startup successes like Sam Altman, Paul Buchheit, or Michael Siebel might actually be better coaches than knock-it-out-of-the-park successes like Larry Page, Mark Cuban, or Notch. But don't misrepresent the argument: operational experience running an existing business is very different from experience founding one.

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60. enrage+zC[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 23:01:14
>>lifeis+cp
Buffet does give great advice for running well-established companies, but to my knowledge he doesn't say anything about entrepreneurship.

Starting a company requires a very different set of skills than running one. That's why a lot of founders either step down or get ousted after their companies mature.

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61. surfmi+2D[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 23:04:34
>>sama+pd
I think the parent raised a good (and fair) question and this is a good (and honest) answer. YC has done fantastically well under your leadership.
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62. cma+BD[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 23:08:42
>>flyosi+ib
> It was certainly one of the first interesting location-based apps in the App Store, but soon was surrounded by other location-based apps and never really appeared to surface and gain traction.

I think you are selling the prescience of it short in this part. Loopt was out long before the App Store existed.

63. liquim+3E[view] [source] 2016-09-27 23:12:22
>>sandsl+(OP)
YC is producing lots of fluffy content lately.

I was very disappointed with the How to Build the Future series. Particularly, the interview with Elon Musk. The quality of the questions was mediocre at best.

And the podcasts are just about showcasing YC companies. As an entrepreneur, I basically got zero value from these.

PG should write more essays. Whenever one of them came out, I dropped whatever I was doing to read them.

replies(1): >>scobar+tU5
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64. Alupis+6E[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 23:12:36
>>Reedx+vy
If all your business does it extract money from investors and deposit it into employee's pockets (and never generates self sustaining revenue, let alone turn profits), I think we'd call that a charity, more than anything.
replies(1): >>Reedx+PP
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65. Alupis+kE[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 23:15:25
>>npezol+3f
> either your own or from others.

If people honestly learned from the mistakes of others - I assert there'd be an awful lot fewer mistakes.

replies(1): >>anexpr+aN
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66. rhizom+SE[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 23:20:32
>>npezol+3f
There's a huge perverse incentive lurking in there.
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67. dota_f+0F[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 23:21:36
>>sama+pd
What's the purpose of your third line?

Obviously they didn't even click the link at all, but they had a legitimate question to ask the community in hopes of learning more about why the content is good. Your first two lines directly answer their questions, but the third one just seems, well, immature?

replies(2): >>dlo+3K >>sama+TV
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68. rhizom+5F[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 23:22:29
>>mbesto+Py
Underperforming relative to what standard?
replies(2): >>nashas+OH >>mbesto+0M
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69. djs070+gF[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 23:23:59
>>thesma+Hx
"Disagree" here is not about disagreeing with the content of the linked media, but whether you consider sama adequately credentialed or experienced to speak on the topic.
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70. askafr+oG[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 23:37:40
>>sama+pd
The parent comment asked a very valid question and I believe your third line was entirely un-necessary. I think you took it a little too personally and ironically if anyone else would have made such a comment, it would be flagged or downvoted into oblivion.

Look at it this way: if you're a musician and you're looking up to people for inspiration or advice to make great, interesting music - do you look to Kanye West or do you look to someone who failed to achieve success as a musician but then went on to become a record company executive? You look to Kanye West.

(to continue the analogy) So when a group of musicians are suddenly looking to the record company exec, it raises an interesting question: why?

It's not meant to be an attack on your character or your achievements...it's just an interesting question. Or at least, that's the way I interpreted it.

replies(2): >>iamgop+2O >>rer+wS
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71. nashas+OH[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-27 23:51:28
>>rhizom+5F
ROI: the standard of YC
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72. dota_f+XI[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-28 00:06:11
>>flyosi+ib
In the 5 vs 5 multiplayer game Dota 2, a given team's composition in the game is roughly broken down into two categories (pretty big over-simplification but let's run with it), carry and support. Carries are meant to "carry" their team on their back through perfect execution in their actions, leveraging the raw potential of the character they're controlling in that particular match. Being a professional carry player demands a very high level of mechanical skill and moment-to-moment tactical awareness.

Support players on the other hand, are relied upon to support the carries by getting supportive items, maintaining control over the map (fog of war is in effect), being in the right places at the right times so as to provide their carry with space to work, and generally staying at a higher level of awareness in order to make more of the big picture calls. Most teams' leader will play a support character.

I suspect something similar may be at work here, in that he is very good at choosing and supporting "carries". There are probably very many people in the world who are very perceptive, empathetic, and can achieve a high level of understanding, making them well-suited for leadership positions, but without luck in addition to giving it their best effort, are never put in a position to shine. Just because someone will never be a top-tier carry, doesn't mean they can't ever be a top-tier support, but our society tends to demand the former before you're trusted to do the latter.

Or not, just thinking out loud here. :)

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73. DrNuke+NJ[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-28 00:16:03
>>flyosi+ib
At the very least he summarises for us the YC data and puts forward (for free) the hints, the best practices, the recurrent patterns that characterise a good lot of the most successful startups in the world. He is a privileged but educated observer from within who can also relate with his own experience as a non-stellar performer as a startupper, if you want. A facilitator and an aggregator, isn't he?
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74. dlo+3K[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-28 00:20:02
>>dota_f+0F
It's very natural to feel a bit defensive in response to criticism of this nature, which is actually an ad hominem. I don't know that many people would have done better. I think we have to remember that even larger-than-life characters like sama are also humans who feel emotions.
75. icantd+JK[view] [source] 2016-09-28 00:29:01
>>sandsl+(OP)
I think everyone should watch this video, it gets better near the end.

I think we need one of theses videos for the really poor kids. The kids who barely finished college due to finances though.

He states his three factors to success are, 'focus, personal conviction, and self belief'.

(Poor kids need to network. Poor kids need to make friends with rich kids. Poor kids can't fail, and take a vacation to unwind. Poor kids, and by poor kids, I mean generational poor. No wealthy grandparents, etc. My biggest mistake was finding upper, middle class kids very shallow. I just couldn't be around them growing up, and even in college. I would cringe when they talked about their problems. I should have held my nose, and try to win their company. I have no reason to lie. They will introduce you to people that have money.)

He said work hard early on.

(Yes, but don't blow a gasket. I had a nervous breakdown in my late twenties. Before that breakdown, I was doing what two people did. I literally felt like nothing couldn't be accomplished. I felt like Superman. Everyone is different, and you will statistically be fine. Just watch it.)

He talks a lot about failing, and why it's not a bad thing.

(That's great, but kids from a poor family only seem to have one big failure in them. It usually involves financing from credit cards. I guess if you know the right financiers, networked, or have family money failing/taking risk is not financial suicide, or living in a box somewhere. Poor kids have the real possibility of ending up homeless if they fail. There just a different mindset when you come from nothing.)

"Successful people impact the world" I believe he said, 'Make the world a better place.'

(That might be true for a handful, but let's get real; it's about making a lot of money. It's about the paper.

I don't like it, but let's not romanize it--it's about making money. The financially successful don't like to admit it.

And if you don't make money in life--there are more important things than narcisstically making a lot of money. Being a good, moral person goes a long way. Can attract the right girlfriend/boyfriend. It's not a crime to think like Jesus did. It might talk you a long way?)

I think the best advice he gave was sticking with what you truly believe in. Yes--there's Twitter, and other examples, but I believe it's good advice. Go against the crowd caught my attention.

If YC is still funding founders after 10-14 failures; I'm very impressed with the organization.

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76. kasey_+LL[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-28 00:43:54
>>Reedx+vy
No. That would be a very unsuccessful company.
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77. mbesto+0M[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-28 00:46:35
>>rhizom+5F
Underperforming versus it's competitors. I know of several websites that do 1/1000th of the traffic and have similar, if not better revenue.
replies(1): >>rhizom+CF2
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78. anexpr+aN[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-28 01:00:23
>>Alupis+kE
and parenting would be so much easier.

It's painful knowing they won't learn something until they do the same stupid thing themselves.

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79. iamgop+2O[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-28 01:12:45
>>askafr+oG
In Indian film industry a famous director called Subhash Ghai usually make eccentric movie with fantastic songs. Songs are usually made by music director and their selection as per the movie and special recommendations comes from movie director only. I think he should be given credit for better ears and selection capacity as I have seen same music directors failing horribly on other movies. So even if Subhash Ghai can not make good music by himself, aspiring music composer will always goes to him for recommendations.
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80. bexp+zO[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-28 01:21:56
>>flyosi+ib
Agree with above, Sama puts himself into same bucket of people as Zuck and Musk in how to build future series. What he has build so far ? Happened to be a VC partner sitting on huge pile of cash, distributing it to bunch of YC applicants ? I could see Paul Graham as YC founder takes some credit for creating all YC unicorns, Sam is just one of many partners in VC firm, nothing outstanding though.
replies(1): >>jonkne+bT
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81. Reedx+PP[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-28 01:44:25
>>Alupis+6E
Yeah, I should have been clearer - the assumption is that it would have self sustaining revenue at some point (I can't imagine many investors would keep putting $ into it after 50 years). It would just be a break even business.

That's why I would say it's a success to everyone but the investors who never got their payday.

replies(1): >>jonkne+4T
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82. rer+wS[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-28 02:24:46
>>askafr+oG
I'm trying to be an objective observer here.

My text classification software marked the third line as the most authentic, most truthful line.

Huh.

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83. jonkne+4T[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-28 02:35:24
>>Reedx+PP
> That's why I would say it's a success to everyone but the investors who never got their payday.

Yes, so it would not be a successful venture backed company. Lifestyle businesses are fine if you pay for them. When someone else invests and expects a return you need to provide a return to be successful.

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84. jonkne+bT[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-28 02:37:30
>>bexp+zO
> Sam is just one of many partners in VC firm, nothing outstanding though.

He is the President.

replies(1): >>bexp+BE2
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85. Gatsky+VU[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-28 02:59:31
>>flyosi+ib
I think the answer is pretty obvious - the advice that successful people give is almost universally useless. The more down to earth less egotistical ones accept this, and don't give out specific advice (eg Warren Buffet, or Bill Gates). But others can't help it. Your premise that we should listen to only the very successful is not well based in that regard.

From first principles, if you were looking for someone to give startup advice, then you want someone who has: been through the process; doesn't suffer from survival bias which just elevates all the random things they did and weird habits they have to some kind of mystical formula; has seen many other people go through the process from the very early to late stages. That's why you should listen to Sam Altman. If you want to worship mega-entrepeneurs then there are many other avenues for that activity.

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86. sama+TV[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-28 03:12:42
>>dota_f+0F
I honestly think it's a valid comment. If I see something from someone I don't think has anything to teach me (though I try to be charitable in that determination), I just don't read it.
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87. drzaiu+oz1[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-28 13:59:58
>>nibs+Cy
The problem with that approach is that getting a high level VP position at a non-trivial sized company is pretty competitive and there are only so many open slots to go around. It also requires a strict career plan and the ability to play office politics very well, which I think most techies struggle with.

Being the guy who sells a small app, service, or utility on the side and clearing $150k a year, or more, via mostly passive income is a much easier trick to pull off. Also this approach can come with a sweetheart acquisition deal from a larger company that wants your product and can run in the millions, on top of what you've earned already.

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88. bexp+BE2[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-28 22:20:27
>>jonkne+bT
In VC world there are only Limited Partners (LP who give money) and general/managing partners (who invest money), everything else is non-essential.
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89. rhizom+CF2[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-28 22:29:11
>>mbesto+0M
I wonder if branding strategies keep their numbers down. I don't ever see a sidebar ad for Coca Cola.
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90. CptJam+H73[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-29 06:25:33
>>tptace+pw
I was arguing that Paul Graham ought to judged by more than viaweb, not that Sam Altman isn't an excellent president of YC. He has done amazing things with the organization in a short period of time.
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91. ycliu+R83[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-29 06:55:00
>>sandsl+y
Here is a mind map version I made:

https://milkr.io/yuecen/Sam-Altman-How-to-Build-the-Future

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92. scobar+tU5[view] [source] [discussion] 2016-09-30 18:34:07
>>liquim+3E
This reply is very late and you may not see it, but I wanted to express my thoughts.

I appreciate the way Sam presents his thoughts (questions, answers, or otherwise). They're both extremely thoughtful and simple in a sense that he won't repel those who may feel below his level intellectually. Some of his points are so insightful, but it's taken me a lot of time, experience, and thought to be able to absorb or agree/disagree with them. Some just seem like simple advice that I should consider because I don't know enough to strongly believe he's right or wrong.

Perhaps you're at a high enough level intellectually that his simply-stated yet thoughtful points are, by now, obvious to you. I definitely don't mean to imply otherwise. Unfortunately, I haven't found many writers whose thoughts are as insightful as PG's, but I am content with rereading his old essays as I'm certain I haven't thoroughly understood everything he's written at the depth of understanding that he or others may have.

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