zlacker

Total Reform + Conservative vote was at historical lows as a percentage of the electorate.

>>ericho+(OP)
That might be true, but the votes (not seats, first past the post, almost guarantees people aren't represented): Labour: 9.7M Conservatives 6.8M Reform: 4.1M Liberal Democrats 3.5M

The point clearly stands that had Reform not been a thing, 2024 would have been a conservative landslide.

What we got was a Labour landslide, what we should have got was some coalition.

>>Ransom+ff
Yes, though I'd be careful about assuming that votes are Conservatives <-> Reform on a left-right median voter model. The other aspect that Reform has (and will have at least until it forms a government) is anti-system/populist credentials. Labour had a little of that last time (they are a deeply establishment party, especially under current leadership, but they were coming off a period as very public opposition to the government and the current state of things) but will have very little next time.

It's certainly not a given that all the 2024 Reform vote would have gone to the Conservatives: a good chunk of it would have likely been disgusted abstention, another chunk to other anti-system parties (mostly of the right fringe, I suspect, but not excluding the Greens despite wild ideological differences), and likely a further (if smaller) chunk to other parties which were simply not the Conservatives (including Labour and the Lib Dems).

Edit: the best analysis on this is likely to be in the latest volume of the long-standing The British General Election of XXXX series, which has just been published online[0]. I haven't had time to look at it yet, though.

[0]: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-95952-3

>>Ransom+ff
As the sibling comment said. You are making the assumption that every Reform voter would have held their nose and voted Conservative instead. A lot more people would have stayed home I think. I don't think anyone thought the Conservatives could win and that includes the Conservatives themselves.