Nice to see that Microsoft has automated that, failure will be cheaper now.
An outsourced contractor was tasked with a very simple job as their first task - update a single dependency, which required just a bump of the version and no code changes - after three days of them seemingly struggling to even understand what they were asked to do, inability to clone the repo, failure to install the necessary tooling on their machine, they ended up getting fired from the project. Complete waste of money, and the time of those of us having to delegate and review this work.
Those have long been the folks I’ve seen at the biggest risk of being replaced by AI. Tasks that didn’t rely on human interaction or much training, just brute force which can be done from anywhere.
And for them, that $3/hr was really good money.
This level of smugness is why outsourcing still continues to exist. The kind of things you talk about were rare. And were mostly exaggerated to create anti-outsourcing narrative. None of that led to outsourcing actually going away simply because people are actually getting good work done.
Bad quality things are cheap != All cheap things are bad.
Same will work with AI too, while people continue to crap on AI, things will only improve, people will be more productive with AI, get more and bigger things done for cheaper and better. This is just inevitable given how things are going now.
>>There's a PM who takes your task and gives it to a "developer" who potentially has never actually written a line of code, but maybe they've built a WordPress site by pointing and clicking in Elementor or something.
In the peak of outsourcing wave. Both the call center people and IT services people had internal training and graduation standards that were quite brutal and mad attrition rates.
Exams often went along the lines of having to write whole ass projects without internet help in hours. Theory exams that had like -2 marks on getting things wrong. Dozens of exams, projects, coding exams, on-floor internships, project interviews.
>>After dozens of hours billed you will, in fact, get code where the new file wasn't added to the csproj or something like that, and when you point it out, they will bill another 20 hours, and send you a new copy of the project, where the test always fails. It's exactly like this.
Most IT services billing had pivoted away from hourly billing, to fixed time and material in the 2000s itself.
>>It's exactly like this.
Very much like outsourcing. AI is here to stay man. Deal with it. Its not going anywhere. For like $20 a month, companies will have same capability as a full time junior dev.
This is NOT going away. Its here to stay. And will only get better with time.
Most of this works because of price arbitrage. And continues to work that way, not just with outsourcing but with manufacturing too.
Remember those days, when people were going around telling Chinese products where crap? That didn't really work and more things only got made in China.
This is all so similar to early days of Google search, its just that cost of a search was low enough that finding things got easier and ubiquitous. That same is unfolding with AI now. People have a hard time believing a big part of their thinking can be outsourced to something that costs $20/month.
How can something as good as me be cheaper than me? You are asking the wrong question. For centuries now, every decade a machine(s) has arrived that can do a thing cheaper than what the human was doing at the time. Its not exactly impossible. You are only living in denial by asking this question, this has been how it has worked the day since humans found way of mimicking human work through machines. We didn't get here in a day.
Pretty sure cars are more expensive than horse carriage, or that iPhones are/were more expensive than button phones. You can cite so many such examples. Like photocopying machines, or cameras, or wrist watches, or even things like radio, television etc.
More importantly, sometimes how you do things change. And that changes how you go about your life in a very fundamental way.
That is what internet was about when it first came out, thats what internet search, online maps, or search etc etc were.
AI will change how you go about living your life, in a very fundamental way.
LLMs are being made into another rental extraction system and should be viewed as such.
Give instructions, get good code back. That's the dream, though I think the pieces that need to fall into place for particular cases will prevent reaching that top quality bar in the general case.
Basic car ownership can be quite a bit cheaper than a horse + carriage.
The horse will probably eat $10-20/day in food. $600/mo in just food costs. Not including vet bills and what not.
A decent and cheap horse will probably cost you $3k up front. Add in several thousand dollars more for the carriage.
A horse requires practically daily maintenance. A carriage will still require some maintenance.
A horse requires a good bit more land, plus the space to store the carriage. Plus, all the extra time and work mounting and unmounting your horse whenever you need to go.
A horse and carriage isn't really cheaper than a cheap car and way less functional.
I used upwork (when it was elance) quite a lot in a startup I was running at the time, so I have direct experience of this and its _not_ a lie or "mostly exaggerated", it was a very real effect.
The trick was always to weed out these types by posting a very limited job for a cheap amount and accepting around five or more bids from broad prices in order to review the developers. Whoever is actually competent then gets the work you actually wanted done in the first place. I found plenty of competant devs at competitive prices this way but some of the submissions I got from the others were laughable. But you just accept the work, pay them their small fee, and never speak to them again.
Most successful technologies provide multiple of these benefits. What is terrible, and the direction we are going right now, is that these new systems (or offshoring like we are talking about here) seem/are "Less Effort" but do not hit the other two axioms. This is a very dangerous place to be.
People would rather be lazy than roll their sleeves up and focus, especially in our attention diverting world.
I can't wait for the first AI agent programmer to realize this and start turning down jobs working for garbage people...or exploiting them at scale for pennies each, in a labor version of the "salami slicing" scheme. I don't mean humans using AI to do this, which of course has been at scale for years. I mean the first agent to discover a job prioritization heuristic on its own which leads to the same result.
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