zlacker

watching the press conference and Onsite power production were mentioned. I assume this means SMRs and solar.

>>ericcu+(OP)
I don't think any assembly line exists that can manufacture and deploy SMRs en masse on that kind of timeframe, even with a cooperative NRC

>>ericcu+(OP)
just as likely to be natural gas or a combination of gas and solar. I don't know what supply chain looks like for solar panels, but I know gas can be done quickly [1], which is how this money has to be spent if they want to reach their target of 125 billion a year.

The companies said they will develop land controlled by Wise Asset to provide on-site natural gas power plant solutions that can be quickly deployed to meet demand in the ERCOT.

The two firms are currently working to develop more than 3,000 acres in the Dallas-Fort Worth region of Texas, with availability as soon as 2027

[0] https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/rpower-and-wise-a...

[1.a] https://enchantedrock.com/data-centers/

[1.b] https://www.powermag.com/vistra-in-talks-to-expand-power-for...

>>apsec1+23
There have been literally 0 production SMR deployments to date so there’s no possibility they’re basing any of their plans on the availability of them.

>>ericcu+(OP)
Much more likely is what xAI did, portable gas turbines until the grid catches up.

>>jazzyj+A4
US domestic PV module manufacturing capacity is ~40GW/year.

>>jazzyj+A4
could something of this magnitude be powered by renewables only?

>>ericcu+(OP)
Hasn't the US decided to prefer nuclear and fossil fuels (most expensive generation methods) over renewables (least expensive generation methods)?[1][2]

I doubt the US choice of energy generation is ideological as much a practicality. China absolutely dominates renewables with 80% of solar PV modules manufactured in China and 95% of wafers manufactured in China.[3] China installed a world record 277GW of new solar PV generation in 2024 which was a 45% year-on-year increase.[4] By contract, the US only installed ~1/10th this capacity in 2024 with only 14GW of solar PV generation installed in the first half of 2024.[5]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source

[2] https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/lcoe-and-valu...

[3] https://www.iea.org/reports/advancing-clean-technology-manuf...

[4] https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/01/21/china-hits-277-17-gw-...

[5] https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/quarterly-solar-industry-u...

>>gunian+3g
Technically yes, but DC operators want fast ROI and the answer is no.

>>gunian+3g
> could something of this magnitude be powered by renewables only?

Perhaps.

For context see https://masdar.ae/en/news/newsroom/uae-president-witnesses-l... which is a bit further south than the bulk of Texas and has not yet been built; 5.2GW of panels, 19GWh of storage. I have seen suggestions on Linkedin that it will be insufficient to cover a portion of days over the winter, meaning backup power is required.

>>toomuc+1f
According to [1], the USA in January 2025 has almost 50GW/yr module manufacturing capacity. But to make modules you need polysilicon (25GW/yr manufacturing capacity in the US), ingots (0GW/yr), wafers (0GW/yr), and cells (0GW/yr). Hence the USA is seemingly entirely dependent on imports, probably from China which has 95%+ of the global wafer manufacturing capacity.

Even when accounting for announced capacity expansion, the USA is currently on target to remain a very small player in the global market with announced capacity of 33GW/yr polysilicon, 13GW/yr ingots, 24GW/yr wafers, 49GW/yr cells and 83GW/yr modules (13GW/yr sovereign supply chain limitation).

In 2024, China completed sovereign manufacturing of ~540GW of modules[2] including all precursor polysilicon, ingots, wafers and cells. China also produced and exported polysilicon, ingots, wagers and cells that were surplus to domestic demand. Many factories in China's production chain are operating at half their maximum production capacity due to global demand being less than half of global manufacturing capacity.[3]

[1] https://seia.org/research-resources/solar-storage-supply-cha...

[2] Estimated figure extrapolated from Jan-Oct 2024 data (10 months). https://taiyangnews.info/markets/china-solar-pv-output-10m-2...

[3] https://dialogue.earth/en/business/chinese-solar-manufacture...

>>dhx+Ip
> Hasn't the US decided to prefer nuclear and fossil fuels (most expensive generation methods) over renewables (least expensive generation methods)?[1][2]

This completely ignores storage and the ability to control the output depending on needs. Instead of LCOE the LFSCOE number makes much more sense in practical terms.

>>zekrio+gN
what prevents operators from getting ROI with renewables?

>>dhx+V91
Appreciate the correction and additional context, I appear to be behind wrt current state.

>>gunian+8v1
The I is high and R low.

>>gunian+8v1
Datacenters can still achieve ROI, but in some cases, it may take longer than expected. This delay is primarily due to the increased complexity of managing operations with the variability introduced by intermittent energy sources. While batteries help mitigate this issue, their current costs make them less competitive compared to non-intermittent energy setups.