During petrodollar era, the 1970s and 80s, the dollar was used less than it is today. (Certainly within the USSR and even the Russian SSR.)
We de facto banned Russia from using the dollar in 2022 [1]. That it took Moscow over two years just get down to 50% speaks volumes to the dollar’s strength.
[1] https://www.ft.com/content/50d6bcd1-f1f6-41a1-bb26-a54826548...
With less variety, slower and at higher cost [1]. And they’re not getting much of the high-tech kit [2]. (The Germans also had blockade runners. Everyone does. That doesn’t make a blockade less onerous.)
Russian natural gas sales have also cratered; Beijing is leveraging its position as a monopsony to demand price concessions [3].
[1] https://www.csis.org/analysis/out-stock-assessing-impact-san...
[2] https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/the-impact-of-s...
[3] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-china-gas-pip...
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/money-supply-m0
USA:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m0
Europe:
https://www.bestchange.com/sberbank-to-tether-trc20.html
There was drop of like 5-10%, but that's nothing special. You can still go and buy as much USDT as you want for reasonable price. And this is what majority of normal people use to move money out of country.
PS: I am obviously anti-Putin dude, but at this point sanctions make very little difference short term. Giving more weapons to Ukraine is the only way to stop Russia.
"Saudi Arabia ends 80-year petrodollar deal with US for multi-currency sales"
https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/saudi-arabia-ends-8...
"No empire lasts forever, no dynasty continues unbroken"
edit:
Since the U.S.'s war on terrorism, the U.S. has said that every trade done in dollars is de facto done on U.S. soil and thus subject to U.S. laws. I'm surprised that more countries have not tried to cut ties with the U.S. dollar.
In September China released a new map using the old Chinese name (Sea Cucumber Bay) rather than the transliterated Vladivostok.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/chinas-standard-map-is-a...
American manufacturing is at an all-time high [1]. Are you conflating manufacturing employment with power?
> if China stops selling tiny electric motors the drone warfare will be lost as the west can't produce this stuff
Uh, I’m fairly deep into drone manufacturing in America. This is multi-level nonsense.
One: you’re confusing quadcopters with military drones, whose motors aren’t tiny and often aren’t motors but turbofans.
Two: we produce lots of electric motors and turbofans. In the case of the former, not at China’s scale, though far more autonomously (and thus easier to scale up if needed). In the case of the latter, far better and similarly quickly after adjusting for effective yield.
See the Zhenbao island dispute, a Chinese land grab with changes up to 2008: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict
Sixth [1] to 11th [2], on track to being eclipsed by Indonesia and Mexico.
> having major increase in real wages
Real wages are up, yes, but real disposable income is flat [3].
This isn’t uncommon in a war footing [4]. Labour and necessities are diverted to the front, raising prices for both. That squeezes disposable income, which moderates price growth in luxuries. The effect, if you’re measuring with a pre-war basket of goods, is rising real earnings and falling disposable income.
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PP... PPP
[2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(no...
[3] https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/putin-grows-war-econo...
The semiconductor shortage is militarily relevant, as are the increasing delays in repairing damaged refineries and power plants [1].
> current rate Putin can fund war indefenetely
Setting aside demographics, his war engine relies on oil, an increasingly-stranded asset [2]. (Over geopolitical time scales.)
Putin is blowing grandma’s inheritance on fast cars.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-sanctions-ham...
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/big-oil-given-stark-warning-...
As long as the executive power do not try to subvert the legislative, judicial or, in a more limited way, informative power, we can't call "extremist politics". Which is why i reject the idea that reactionnaries like the RN in France are still fascists as their rethoric against judges and informative power is really tame (they could be lying, making them cryptofascists, but this is subject to personal beliefs and not facts).
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_Network
[1]"L'Extrême Centre ou le poison français : 1789-2019", Pierre Senna
5 to 10 if the IEA is correct [1].
[1] https://www.axios.com/2024/06/12/oil-peak-demand-iea-project...
You’ve made a series of wrong, uncited claims. This is another one.
> Is USA capable of producing huge number of electric motors?
Siemens is the world’s largest manufacturer of electric motors. They have massive plants in Germany, Ohio and Missouri [1][2]. Toshiba, the second largest, in Houston and Canada [3]. ABB, third largest, with plants across 8 states, directed from Arkansas, as well as in India [4].
China has cheaper labour and laxer environmental laws than America. But we have some of the world’s cheapest and most-abundant energy. Motor manufacturing isn’t dirty or labour intensive. I’m not sure where your obsession with electric motors comes from, because it’s an example of Allied manufacturing vastly outstripping China.
> Remember how the west wasn't able to deliver enough artillery shells simply because it can't produce enough?
Yes, in part because we want to maintain reserves. We matched Ukraine’s military budget to the entirety of Russia’s [5]. As a side project.
[1] https://www.siemens.com/us/en/company/about/siemens-in-the-u...
[2] https://www.siemens.com/us/en/products/drives/electric-motor...
[3] https://www.toshiba.com/tic/inside-toshiba/manufacturing-ser...
[4] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABB_Motors_and_Mechanical
[5] https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/w...
You don't stop a bully by saying "please". They'll take your money and come back for more after.
In this case, Russians are taking your land, men, woman, children, culture and washing machines + the gas found in 2013 nearby crimea and the minerals in the most resource dense land of Ukraine ( lithium, ... ).
Here you go:
https://www.renewablematter.eu/en/ukraine-all-lithium-reserv...
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE90N11X/
If only in 2014 the international response would have been harder ( => provide weapons), Putin wouldn't have escalated 8 years later.
Providing more to Ukraine is long overdue.
> the west only cares about this to weaken russia. Weapons will only cost more lives.
Speak for yourselve. Some of my dearest friends these days are from Ukraine. ( Belgium)
While Europe is providing shelter and a life for 6 million refugees.
You’ve made a series of wrong, uncited claims. This is another one. (And the last one I’m responding to. You are not arguing in good faith.)
You called out electric motors. By mass and production volume, China is outstripped by Allied production.
> cheap energy is cool but Russia too has cheap energy
Much less than America production-wise. We’re counting volumes and mass, right?
> like India going to the moon at cost that would be considered pocket change in the USA
You really keep picking terrible examples to spitball on.
The SSLV’s launch cost per kg is over 3x Falcon 9’s [1][2]. American access to space is orders of magnitude cheaper and more extensive than India, Russia and China’s combined, despite massively higher labour costs and design requirements.
That said, India actually got to the Moon. Can’t say as much about Russia [3].
[1] https://www.newspace.im/launchers/isro
[2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_launch_market_competit...
Mm hmm [1].
What part of it is 'sinking'? It increased its oil exports. It increased its other resource exports. Europe is still buying Russian gas and oil, except through India and its now called 'Indian oil'. It achieved independence in a lot of things that it was buying from the West, mixing it with homegrown products and global south imports. The sanctions HIT EUROPE MORE, with all the European companies losing their market share in Russia and their market share being taken over by Russian companies and Chinese ones.
The references are from REUTERS, none other than one of the Angloamerican establishment mouthpieces that sells every war including how they sold the WMD lies, and some aggregate of Wikipedia articles that are tangential and supposed to be relevant?
Here's what's relevant:
https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/fragile...
> This isn’t uncommon in a war footing [4]. Labour and necessities are diverted to the front, raising prices for both. That squeezes disposable income, which moderates price growth in luxuries. The effect, if you’re measuring with a pre-war basket of goods, is rising real earnings and falling disposable income.
None of that is applicable to the actual reality that Russians themselves report, you are just flat out theorizing what 'should happen' with absolutely no connection to the actual reality.
Everything you say and believe is in line with things like 'ghost of kiev', "ukraine will reach Moscow in a month", "Russia wanted to conquer Ukraine in 3 months but it couldn't", "Chinese economy is set for a hard landing (yet) again" and all that sh*t.
...
Really, you people live in la la land. Your worst enemy is not Russia or China. Its you and your delirious 'I prefer to believe what I like to hear" attitude.
Downvote this post. It will make the reality go away.
Everyone I know in my home country which has absolutely no relation with any of these has also left. The 99.9% of the population have not. Your personal circle and the specific demographics you belong to do not constitute statistics.
> 3) Indisputable military points of clarity from global news are that Russia failed to capture Ukraine's capital after planning and attempting to do so
Angloamerican and satellite media outlets are not 'global', not to mention that all the 'experts' that they rely on are full of sh_t just like how they were back in 2003. Their sole job is to sell this war so that US and satellite taxpayer money can be channeled back to US defense corporations via Ukraine. The result is that Raytheon et al are posting record profits.
> 4) Russia's petro-diplomacy clearly backfired: the entire world
You people say these delirious things. 80% of the world has increased its business relations with Russia instead of decreasing it. India even told a bipartisan British parliamentary delegation to sod off when they went to India to lecture them about how they should cut their relations with Russia. Here's 'the entire world':
https://www.politico.eu/article/west-more-united-also-isolat...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/23/world/russia-...
Even NYT admits that the West is isolated and 'the world' is literally with Russia. But you people contradict your own establishment mouthpieces.
Here in Europe we are still buying Russian oil and gas, even more than before, EXCEPT THROUGH INDIA, GABON and other intermediaries. Gabon, a tiny African country, increased its merchant marine to 100 ships in a few months just to sell Russian oil and gas to Europe. Europe's exports to Russia cratered, but its exports to Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and various neighboring countries skyrocketed with the EXACT percentage with which its exports to Russia cratered. Go figure. Everything is the same as before in Europe related to Russia, and yet imports are more expensive because it goes through intermediaries.
> the entire world has pivoted away from fossil fuels
Another self-propagated delirium that is the product of too much Angloamerican media consumption. Hasnt happened.
> I think any summary version of reality that includes Russia 'winning' at this stage
The summary version of the reality in which Russia is winning is this reality.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/27/opinion/ukraine-military-...
"Ukraine Doesn’t Need All Its Territory to Defeat Putin"
Your establishment has gone from "Ukraine will get to Moscow in 3 months" to "Ukraine doesn't need its territory to win". They are making 'perception management' to manage you people as if you were idiots. And they seem to be succeeding too.
> The Chinese will suffer too, because this aids Xi Jinping's narrative of resisting the west during a period in which he is asserting authoritarian nationalism and increasing financial, economic and cultural controls.
Nobody needs to 'resist' 'the West'. Its bankrupt. Its capitalist class started to eat the societies alive by trying to profit from housing, healthcare, education and even basic foodstuffs as they exhausted the means to exploit other countries. Dollar lost its place as the foreign exchange currency and unused dollars are now flowing back to the US, causing inflation. 99% of Americans are estimated to be going to be never own a house whereas 80% of 30 year olds and 90% of 40 year olds own their houses in China, which they paid with their own money.
'The West' is so in knee-deep sh*t that this is what's happening there:
https://www.reddit.com/r/AmerExit/
You people are delusional and speak delirious. This is how it must have been in the late stages of Roman empire as it was nearing its end: Delusion and denial.
That. Therein lies the problem that destroys the Angloamerican-led world order and the countries that are under its yoke from within: You prefer a certain version of reality that appeals to what you believe and feel. As a result, you literally ignore anything that contradicts those and amplify whatever supports those - which allows your establishment to literally lie to you to get to believe what YOU want to believe. Because, even if they tell the truth, you wont believe it ANYWAY, and you will do it...
> it's a short-term result.
...like this. All the indicators show the contrary of what you currently believe. You even went much further than the majority of the population and actually acknowledged that this may be the case, and the situation may be different than what you believed. BUT, you STILL gravitate back to your preferred reality by rejecting the contradicting indicators, by labeling them 'short term'.
They are not 'short term'. The entire world order changed. NYT admits it, Reuters admits it. But you, the public, WANT the reality to be otherwise. It wont.
https://www.reuters.com/world/brics-poised-invite-new-member...
> The invasion Ukraine happened cuz this is the last disposable generation Russia could muster for invasion.
The invasion of Ukraine happened because it was the last project of Brezinski and his proteges are still running the US foreign policy. He outlined how it should happen, and it was implemented precisely how he planned it before he died.
> Combine that with the fact that it hastens the adoption of EVs and the moving off of fossil fuels
Another delirium, that lives on the lie that the Angloamerican media sold to its public by saying that Russia was "an oil rig posing as a country". Its not.
One lie supporting another, one lie being used to reject the uncomfortable reality when the numbers and actual events contradict it, gravitating back to the PREFERRED, false reality because, well, it makes you people 'feel good'.
I'll leave you to your denial.
That's what you did with "Most of the people I know".
The rest are literal references from actual Angloamerican establishments. You are literally contradicting what NYT, Reuters et al bluntly say. Take it up with them and tell them that they are wrong.
> I myself hold three citizenships and am part slavic, raised irreligious and to hold America in a very dim light.
Doesnt mean anything. You talk like an American nationalist who is devoid of the understanding of the reality outside.
> Nationalism is an infantile disease. The measles of mankind. - Einstein
Another irrelevant phrase, hard to understand what the hell does it have to do with the actual point.
> Chiefly your arguments about abstention from votes are totally logical: the countries who abstained are largely neighbors or economic vassals of China and Russia who do not want to poke the proverbial bear.
Its not about 'votes'. All of those countries increased their TRADE with Russia. Needless to say neither Brazil, nor Chile nor Malaysia nor Indonesia has anything to fear about Russia. The argument is unintelligible.
Its also hypocritical: When US satellites vote how the US wants, its 'democratic', but when other countries vote according to their already declared, clear diplomatic stances, its 'for fear'.
> Ask the Chinese how their real estate market is going
80% of 30 year olds and 90% year of 40 year olds own their houses, and they paid it with their own money. That's how it is going. Its going bad only in the publications of the Economist, WSJ and NYT because they want China to open up its real estate market so that American investment funds can fck the Chinese by buying up entire neighborhoods then jacking up prices to profit - like how they did to Americans:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/homes-for-sale-affordable-housi...
99% of Americans will never buy a house in their lifetime.
This is a great example of how delirious you people became by feeding on the lies and bullsht of your media. The Economist incessantly lies about China, you people eat it line and sinker and blabber about "China's real estate market" even as 99% of you will never buy a house. You get your own real estate market in order first. Sheeshhh...
> As I look about my house I notice zero Russian inventions, products, or brands, save some postcards
Yeah. Your house, in your self-induced ignorance and delirium with all the disconnectedness from the rest of the world, does make a statement about actual countries and geopolitics. Like the 'China real estate market' delirium. The country where 99% of the people will never own a house are yammering about the real estate market of another country and denigrating it. That seals the discussion. Well done.
I will leave you people to dabble in your drivel.
What they want is the gas that was going to be produced in Ukraine in 2013, a year before they invaded. They also took resource rich areas.
The proof for this is easy. Russia clearly stated they have no problem with Finland joining NATO. A border of 1340 km and Finland has one of the strongest army's in Europe.
https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-russia-no-problem-finl...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-can-finlands-armed...
What he originally wanted to keep, is resource dominance over Europe ( eg. Gas) as leverage.
And that's why a half a million Russians are dead.
Or take some guidance at the countries that already suffered Russia as a neighbor in the recent past.
Here's a hint: Ukraine, Romania, Poland, Finland, ...
Here's an example: https://abcnews.go.com/International/helsinkis-underground-c...
Or are you claiming you know better than them?
Revenues are down [1].
> Here's what's relevant
You're linking to a paper on bank runs. We had a bunch last year, and another a few months ago.
You didn't notice? That's okay. Most Americans didn't notice either.
(That said, I appreciate your citing a source. You'll note that the authors suggestions were recently implented.)
> None of that is applicable to the actual reality that Russians themselves report
Real disposable income is down. According to Russia.
[1] https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russian-Oil-is-Fu...
Here's what they did when they actually joined: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-can-finlands-armed...
( As mentioned before)