The vast majority of datacenters currently in production will be entirely powered by carbon free energy. From best to worst:
1. Meta: 100% renewable
2. AWS: 90% renewable
3. Google: 64% renewable with 100% renewable energy credit matching
4. Azure: 100% carbon neutral
[1]: https://sustainability.fb.com/energy/
[2]: https://sustainability.aboutamazon.com/products-services/the...
[3]: https://sustainability.google/progress/energy/
[4]: https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/explore/global-infrastruct...
IMO, we should pause this for now and put these resources (human and capital) towards reducing the impact of global warming.
What are your timelines here? "Catastrophic" is vague but I'd put the climate change meaningfully affecting the quality of life of average westerner at end of century, while AGI could be before the middle of the century.
If imaginary cloud provider "ZFQ" uses 10MW of electricity on a grid and pays for it to magically come from green generation, that means 10MW of other loads on the grid were not powered by green energy, or 10MW of non-green power sources likely could have been throttled down/shut down.
There is no free lunch here; "we buy our electricity from green sources" is greenwashing bullshit.
Even if they install solar on the roofs and wind turbines nearby - that's still electrical generation capacity that could have been used for existing loads. By buying so many solar panels in such quantities, they affect availability and pricing of all those components.
The US, for example, has about 5GW of solar manufacturing capacity per year. NVIDIA sold half a million H100 chips in one quarter, each of which uses ~350W, which means in a year they're selling enough chips to use 700MW of power. That does not include power conversion losses, distribution, cooling, and the power usage of the host systems, storage, networking, etc.
And that doesn't even get into the water usage and carbon impact of manufacturing those chips; the IC industry uses a massive amount of water and generates a substantial amount of toxic waste.
It's hilarious how HN will wring its hands over how much rare earth metals a Prius has and shipping it to the US from Japan, but ask about the environmental impacts of AI and it's all "pshhtt, whatever".
No. Renewable energy capacity is often built out specifically for datacenters.
> Even if they install solar on the roofs and wind turbines nearby - that's still electrical generation capacity that could have been used for existing loads.
No. This capacity would never never have been built out to begin with if it was not for the data center.
> By buying so many solar panels in such quantities, they affect availability and pricing of all those components.
No. Renewable energy gets cheaper with scale, not more expensive.
> which means in a year they're selling enough chips to use 700MW of power.
There are contracts for renewal capacity to be built out or well into the gigawatts. Furthermore, solar is not the only source of renewable energy. Finally, nuclear energy is also often used.
> the IC industry uses a massive amount of water
A figurative drop in the bucket.
> It's hilarious how HN will wring its hands
HN is not a monolith.
That being said, the GP you’re talking about made no such statement whatsoever.
We do not have that. The cost of energy is mis-priced, although we are limping our way to fixing that.
Paying the likely fair cost for our goods, will probably kill a lot of current industries - while others which are currently viable, will become viable.
I agree with a majority of points you made. Exception is to this
> A figurative drop in the bucket.
Fresh water sources are limited. Fabs water demands and pollution are high impact.
Calling a drop in the bucket comes in the weasel words category.
We still need fabs, because we need chips. Harm will be done here. However, that is a cost we, as a society, will choose to pay.
Not fully accurate. Indeed there is renewable energy that is produced exclusively for the datacenter. But it is challenging to rely only on renewable energy (because it is intermittent and electricity is hard to store at scale so often you need to consume electricity when produced). So what happens in practice is that the electricity that does not come from dedicated renewable capacity is coming from the grid/network. What companies do is that they invest in renewable capacity in the network so that "the non renewable energy that they consume at time t (because not enough renewable energy available at that moment) is offsetted by someone else consuming renewable energy later". What I am saying here is not pure speculation, look at the link to meta website, they are saying themselves that this is what they are doing
Weather is not climate, as everyone is so careful to point out during cold waves.
Who gets decide what the real impact price of energy is? That is not easily defined and well debated.
We have surpassed the 1.5°C goal and are on track towards 3.5°C to 5°C. This accelerates the climate change timeline so that we'll see effects postulated for the end of the century in about ~20 years.
Markets are our super computers. Human behavior is the empirical evidence of the choices people will make Given specific incentives.
Likewise, the cloud seeding they seem to be doing nearly worldwide now - the cloud formations from whatever they're spraying - are artificially changing weather patterns, and so a lot of the weather "anomalies" or unexpected-unusual weather-temperatures could very easily be because of those shenanigans; it could very easily be as a method to manufacture consent with the general population.
Similarly with the arson forest fires in Canada last summer, something like 90%+ of them were arson + a few years prior some of the governments in the prairie provinces (e.g. hottest and dryest) gutted their forest firefighting budgets; interesting behaviour considering if they're expecting more things to get hotter-dryer, you'd add to the budget, not take away from it, right?
Dane Wiginton (https://www.instagram.com/DaneWigington) is the founder of GeoengineerWatch.org as a very deep resource.
They have a free documentary called "The Dimming" you can watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rf78rEAJvhY
In the documentary it includes credible witness testimonies such as politicians including a previous Minister of Defense for Canada; multiple states in the US have ban the spraying now - with more to follow, and the testimony and data provided there will be arguably be the most recent.
Here's a video on a "comedy" show from 5 years ago - there is a more recent appearance but I can't find it - in attempt to make light of it, without having an actual discussion with critical thinking or debate so people can be enlightened with the actual problems and potential problems and harms it can cause, to keep them none the wiser - it's just propaganda while trying to minimize: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOfm5xYgiK0
A few of the problems cloud seeding will cause: - flooding in regions due to rain pattern changes - drought in areas due to rain pattern changes - cloud cover (amount of sun) changes crop yields - this harms local economies of farmers, impacting smaller farming operations more who's risk isn't spread out - potentially forcing them to sell or go into savings or go bankrupt, etc.
There are also very serious concerns/claims made of what exactly they are spraying - which includes aluminium nanoparticles, which can/would mean: - at a certain soil concentration of aluminium plants stop bearing fruit, - aluminium is a fire accelerant and so forest fires will then 1) more easily catch, and 2) more easily-quickly spread due to their increased intensity
Of course discussion on this is heavily suppressed in the mainstream, instead of having deep-thorough conversation with actual experts to present their cases - the label of conspiracy theorists or the idea of "detached from reality" are people's knee-jerk reactions often; and where propaganda can convince them of the "save the planet" narrative, which could also be a cover story for those toeing the line following orders supporting potentially very nefarious plans - doing it blindly because they think they're helping fight "climate change."
There are plenty of accounts on social media that are keeping track of and posting daily of the cloud seeding operations: https://www.instagram.com/p/CjNjAROPFs0/ - a couple testimonies.
1. When do you predict catastrophic global warming/climate change? How do you define "catastrophic"? (Are you pegging to an average temperature increase? [1])
2. When do you predict AGI?
How much uncertainty do you have in each estimate? When you stop and think about it, are you really willing to wager that (1) will happen before (2)? You think you have enough data to make that bet?
[1] I'm not an expert in the latest recommendations, but I see that a +2.7°F increase over preindustrial levels by 2100 is a target by some: https://news.mit.edu/2023/explained-climate-benchmark-rising...
I'm sorry, do you have a source for that claim? You seem to dismiss the video without any evidence.
If there is a top secret Manhattan Project for "climate change" - then someone's very likely pulling a fast one over everyone toeing that line, someone who has ulterior motives, misleading people to do their bidding.
But sure, fair question - a public discussion would allow actual experts to discuss the merits of what they're doing, and perhaps find a better solution than what has gained traction.
How much airspace of geographic area do you need access to in order to cloud seeds in other parts of the world though?
I haven't looked but perhaps GeoengineeringWatch.org has resources and has kept track of that?