zlacker

There's plenty of reliable evidence. It's just not conclusive evidence. But a lot of people including AI researchers now think we are looking at AGI in a relatively short time with fairly high odds. AGI by the OpenAI economic-viability definition might not be far off at all; companies are trying very very hard to get humanoid robots going and that's the absolute most obvious way to make a lot of humans obsolete.

>>jprete+(OP)
None of that constitutes reliable evidence. Some of the comments you see from "AI researchers" are more like proclamations of religious faith than real scientific analysis.

“He which testifieth these things saith, Surely I come quickly. Amen. Even so, come, Lord Jesus.”

Show me a robot that can snake out a plugged toilet. The people who believe that most jobs can be automated are ivory-tower academics and programmers who have never done any real work in their lives.

>>nradov+S2
yes it's in fact fantastic that mentally-stimulating jobs that provide social mobility are disappearing, and slavery-lite, mentally-gruelling service industry jobs are the future. people who haven't had to clean a strangers' shit out of a toilet should be ashamed of themselves and put to work at once.

honestly I'm not sure I've seen the bar set higher for "what's a threat?" than for AGI on Hacker News. the old adage of not being able to convince a man of something that is directly in opposition to him receiving his paycheck clearly remains true. gpt-4 should scare you enough, even if it's 1000 years from being AGI.

>>nradov+S2
> Show me a robot that can snake out a plugged toilet.

Astounding that you would make such strong claims while only able to focus on the rapidly changing present and such a small picture detail. Try approaching the AGI claim from a big picture perspective, I assure you, snaking a drain is the most trivial of implementation details for what we're facing.