It's highly likely in my uneducated opinion that OpenAI will be told to adopt a standard corporate structure in the near term. They will likely have to pay out a number of stakeholders as part of a "make right" setup.
It's not unusual for nonprofits to have spinoffs, but it is unusual for the nonprofit to be so consumed by its for-profit spinoffs.
For a good point of comparison, until 2015, when public scrutiny led them to decide to change it, the NFL operated as a nonprofit, with the teams operating as for-profits. Other sports leagues continue to have that structure.
Want to open a bakery in your small town? Start it as a 501(3)(c) and promise it’s a charitable endeavor for the local community. Then invest your $500k into the bakery maybe even from your local community (it’s a tax deductible donation!) to get the bakery up and running.
Then once it’s turning a profit, ditch the original 501(3)c and replace it with a LLC, S-Corp or C-corp and start paying taxes. (And hope you don’t get sued or audited)
His point is mom and pop bakeries aren’t typically sophisticated enough to pull of schemes like this, even if it would save tens of thousands on taxes.
What activities couldn’t they do with their charity arm that required this for-profit arm?
What's next? Can the OpenAI nonprofit shell divest itself of the for-profit OpenAI and spend the remainder of its cash on "awareness" or other nonsense?
OpenAI has always argued that the for-profit is furthering the aims of the non-profit.
Also employees can't get shares of the non-profit so of course they would from the for-profit arm.
IANAL but I think the tax issue would likely hinge on how well that $500k was isolated from the for-profit side. If the non-profit has no substantial operations and is just a shell for the for-profit, I could see getting in trouble for trying to deduct that as a donation. But if there's an audit trail showing that the money is staying on the non-profit side, it would likely be fine.
Most non-profit employees receive their compensation in the form of a salary. If you need to pay "market rate" competing with organizations that offer equity, you pay a bigger salary. When non-profits spin for-profits off (eg research spinoffs), they do it with a pretty strict wall between the non-profit and the for-profit. That is not the case for OpenAI.