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[parent] [thread] 36 comments
1. BodyCu+(OP)[view] [source] 2024-01-28 12:13:46
This is an illusion. There is no safe place, you can’t escape the reality of global warming by moving to another place.
replies(5): >>trench+B1 >>Peteri+L1 >>Grafik+k5 >>textbo+Fc >>kylebe+sw
2. trench+B1[view] [source] 2024-01-28 12:28:30
>>BodyCu+(OP)
There is no safe place in general, with or without climate change.

But you can for sure mitigate most of the climate change risks by moving to anothe place.

3. Peteri+L1[view] [source] 2024-01-28 12:29:49
>>BodyCu+(OP)
While you may be technically true, it is obviously clear that some places are far safer than others, and moving to another place will have a very high impact on how global warming affects you, as some regions will be affected much more harshly than others. At the extreme, some places may be underwater or otherwise uninhabitable, but if you can afford to, moving away from them in a timely manner, you can escape being forced to do so at a time when doing so may be much harder.
replies(1): >>madaxe+i6
4. Grafik+k5[view] [source] 2024-01-28 13:00:03
>>BodyCu+(OP)
I want to move back to a farm/out of the city.

For sure for a lot of reasons like having space for a garden etc. but also i think its a lot more easier to survive there longer.

Alone the space in my flat limits me of having provisions etc.

replies(1): >>Valgri+2a
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5. madaxe+i6[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 13:08:28
>>Peteri+L1
Second order effects will be the killer. It won’t be the coastal flooding, it will be the dispossessed hordes. It won’t be the uninhabitable areas, it will be the rapid rise in price of food staples. No matter where you are, the chaos will come to your door, when it comes.

Takes surprisingly little to collapse a civilisation when you kick its knees out from under it.

replies(3): >>Peteri+M7 >>tappas+48 >>ianbur+zZ
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6. Peteri+M7[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 13:17:38
>>madaxe+i6
I agree, but there is a meaningful difference between having dispossessed hordes on your doorstep and being among those dispossessed hordes having to find a place for yourself; and if the price of grain doubles, for a poor community that means starvation while a wealthy community would barely notice.
replies(1): >>TheOth+Wq
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7. tappas+48[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 13:19:54
>>madaxe+i6
I always tell my gun-hoarding, go-box toting, bug-out planning prepper friends the same thing. You don't have enough guns and ammo to stop the masses coming for your canned pork'n'beans.
replies(3): >>ejb999+0j >>Peteri+Qj >>kylebe+Yw
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8. Valgri+2a[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 13:33:21
>>Grafik+k5
Modern farms are highly dependent on global infrastructure for things like fuel and fertilizer and fuel.

If personal resilience is your goal, then you must look into permaculture, no-till and agroforestry.

replies(2): >>chasd0+bm >>Grafik+yG2
9. textbo+Fc[view] [source] 2024-01-28 13:53:32
>>BodyCu+(OP)
The earth has had some of the fastest warming ever in the last 15 thousand. During this time crop yields have increased dramatically. The trend is unmistakable, the warmer the planet, the more food we produce.
replies(2): >>singin+Ie >>t0bia_+Fg
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10. singin+Ie[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 14:04:39
>>textbo+Fc
100% of people who mistake correlation for causation end up dead.
replies(2): >>textbo+pg >>menset+DB
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11. textbo+pg[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 14:14:19
>>singin+Ie
All the climate modelling is based on correlation, so I thought that's what we were doing. Is there another approach we should be taking?
replies(2): >>wredue+jn >>singin+JN5
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12. t0bia_+Fg[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 14:15:41
>>textbo+Fc
Depends on source of your information.

Hot Weather.—Many a man has mopped his brow during the summer months of 1884, declaring it was the hottest weather the world ever knew, which, of course, would not be true, for the extreme heat in the record of the past has not been approached during the late summer.

In 627, the heat was so great in France and Germany, says the London Standard, that all springs dried up; water became so scarce that many people died of thirst.

In 879, work in the field had to be given up; agricultural laborers persisting in their work were struck down in a few minutes, so powerful was the sun. In 993, the sun’s rays were so fierce that vegetation burned up as under the action of fire. In 1000, rivers ran dry under the protracted heat, the fish were left dry in heaps and putrefied in a few hours. Men and animals venturing in the sun in the summer of 1022 fell down dying.

In 1132, not only did the rivers dry up, but the ground cracked and became baked to the hardness of stone. The Rhine in Alsace nearly dried up. Italy was visited with terrific heat in 1189; vegetation and plants were burned up. During the battle of Bela, in 1200, there were more victims made by the sun than by weapons; men fell down sunstruck in regular rows. The sun of 1277 was also severe; there was an absolute dearth of forage.

In 1303 and 1304, the Rhine, Loire, and Seine ran dry. In 1615, the heat throughout Europe became excessive. Scotland suffered particularly in 1625; men and beasts died in scores. Meat could be cooked by merely exposing it to the sun. Not a soul dared to venture out between noon and 4 p.m. In 1718, many shops had to be closed; the theatres were never opened for several months. Not a drop of water fell during six months.

In 1753 the thermometer rose to one hundred and eighteen degrees. In 1779, the heat at Bologna was so great that a large number of people died. In July 1793, the heat became intolerable. Vegetables were burned up and fruit dried upon the trees. The furniture and woodwork in dwelling-houses cracked and split up; meat became bad in an hour.

In Paris in 1846, the thermometer marked one hundred and twenty-five degrees in the sun. The summers of 1859, 1860, 1869, 1870, 1874, etc., although excessively hot, were not attended by any disaster.”

- source: https://books.google.com/books/about/Gaillard_s_Medical_Jour... - page 473.

replies(1): >>bratwu+Ui
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13. bratwu+Ui[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 14:31:31
>>t0bia_+Fg
Only in regards to the rivers drying out. At that time those rivers weren’t canals like since the 19th century. They where much larger and had more „siderivers“ so water could get into the ground etc much more easily.
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14. ejb999+0j[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 14:32:17
>>tappas+48
they don't have to stop the hordes, they just need to make sure the hordes know that their are easier places to forage than yours.
replies(1): >>HankB9+fo
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15. Peteri+Qj[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 14:37:57
>>tappas+48
On the other hand, on a country level, countries generally do have enough guns and ammo to greatly limit any chaos coming over their border; uncontrolled immigration happens not because countries can't control it but because they effectively choose not to.
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16. chasd0+bm[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 14:54:31
>>Valgri+2a
Or live to learn like a drifting dog on the street, that’s probably the most realistic training. Become homeless with no money and only the provisions you can carry. Oh and no electricity either. Learn to thrive like that and you may be prepared.
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17. wredue+jn[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 15:01:56
>>textbo+pg
Dude no. We know that the gasses we are releasing cause warming and we know the ratio of those gases naturally occurring vs human pollution.
replies(1): >>t0bia_+mw
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18. HankB9+fo[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 15:08:16
>>ejb999+0j
I wonder how long that strategy will work. Eventually society will reach a new "equilibrium" but how many less defended societies will succumb to the starving hordes before that happens.

I quote "equilibrium" because social structures never stop changing. What I mean is a relatively stable situation where most of the world is not invading the rest of the world. Our present situation is that the larger portion of the population is not invading the rest, though the present trend seems to be in the wrong direction.

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19. TheOth+Wq[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 15:24:32
>>Peteri+M7
...until the dispossessed hordes burn it to the ground.

The belief that rich people will be able to ride this one out is a huge part of the problem. No matter how deep your bunker, no matter how many acres of land you own, extreme weather will make all of it worthless.

replies(2): >>ilikeh+Ft >>Peteri+PK
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20. ilikeh+Ft[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 15:45:42
>>TheOth+Wq
You seem to believe that the disposed hordes will inevitable be able to burn it to the ground despite primarily being dispossessed from places with near primitive military practices, alone supplies. While we’re writing fictional tales, there’s an alternative ending to this fiction that ends with the dispossessed hordes simply losing.
replies(1): >>amanap+kz
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21. t0bia_+mw[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 16:03:46
>>wredue+jn
How do you know?
replies(1): >>wredue+FF
22. kylebe+sw[view] [source] 2024-01-28 16:04:29
>>BodyCu+(OP)
Why do you say that? Most of the Midwest USA seems like it will do fine for the inevitable future.

More co2 means corn and soy will be growing better and better, warming temps increase our growing season. We have more than enough water. What am I missing?

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23. kylebe+Yw[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 16:09:11
>>tappas+48
Is that true? I mean, I figure worst case, small rural midwest communities that band together and shoot trespassers on site will be the best off.

I guess an army of thousands could take it over but my hope is that me and my gun toting farming community won't put up with invaders and invaders won't want to take their chances

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24. amanap+kz[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 16:24:45
>>ilikeh+Ft
By losing you mean starving, I assume. If the rich northern countries can even come to some sort of agreement that the poor from the south should be kept out by killing them when they try to migrate north. This is all going to be horrifying no matter what.
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25. menset+DB[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 16:36:06
>>singin+Ie
you might get similar percentages in the other direction...
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26. wredue+FF[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 16:59:15
>>t0bia_+mw
We know because it’s measurable.

You. Literally YOU. Can trivially measure the impact of different gases on temperature.

Telling the difference between natural and human produced is probably not doable by you personally, however, human burned pollution tends to have different atomic markers from naturally occurring. We have mandatory pollution reporting. We can do basic maths to find reasonably close numbers to how much of the pollution is natural and how much is from us.

With regard to “the prediction models are always wrong” fake news propaganda bullshit:

They are always wrong in a way that’s worse for us by underestimating the bad impacts. Every time we improve the models, the outcomes are worse even faster than the models predict, and we have to find why.

replies(1): >>t0bia_+1U
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27. Peteri+PK[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 17:33:00
>>TheOth+Wq
This scenario is not a zombie apocalypse where the hordes are literally at your doorsteps and it's individuals protecting themselves from other nearby individuals.

The climate change may easily cause large scale international conflict or fights over resources at national level, but the distance between places without capacity to handle the weather and the better-off areas generally are thousands of miles and an ocean, and the parties to any conflict would be neighboring communities of many millions of people each - I mean, this discussion is about "what will happen to the population of current Bangladesh, and what effect that will have on neighboring countries" not about what will happen for few rich people in USA against their literal neighbors from the same state and county.

I fully expect that the wealthy countries can handle some internal displacement due to e.g. sea level rise without mass violence and a general breakdown of internal order - people having to abandon coastal properties in Florida would cause economic woes and internal political pressure to Do Something (not necessarily constructive), not cause the displaced Florida men to form large uncontested gangs roaming the Midwest looking for bunkers to loot.

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28. t0bia_+1U[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 18:34:13
>>wredue+FF
Yet you don't know nothing, you believe in catastrophic scenarios.

We can measure anecdotaly that temperature is slightly rising. The reason why is it happening and happend in history multiple times is topic for debate that we can explore.

However your tone is not open for debate and use exactly same words as those you fight against.

replies(1): >>wredue+EM1
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29. ianbur+zZ[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-28 19:05:02
>>madaxe+i6
There are also potential feedback effects from rising temperature. Northern Europe should survive the 2C warming we are headed towards, but higher temps could cause big problems.

Northern Europe should worry about the Gulf Stream or Atlantic Conveyor currents failing and changing the climate.

Another big one is melting permafrost. Warmer temps cause permafrost to melt and release CO2, which leads to more warming, and repeat.

Finally, there is danger of ice sheets melting which could rise sea levels by hundreds of feet.

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30. wredue+EM1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 01:29:43
>>t0bia_+1U
It is not “up for debate” that various gasses cause a rise in temperature.

You are pretending that our scientific knowledge is at 1600 levels to come to your insane conclusions.

You claim that I’m not open for debate, but it’s actually just that there is no debate here. You’re a just printing demonstrable lies on to the internet, for what?

replies(1): >>defros+KN1
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31. defros+KN1[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 01:43:05
>>wredue+EM1
Cutting to the guts of the question:

> How do you know?

posed in ignorance (perhaps genuine ignorance, perhaps feigned) above, we (humans) have been measuring gas properties in isolation for 200 years (and more) and have been specifically measuring (and storing as bottled samples) atmospheric gas composition since the start of the Cold War.. seventy odd years or so now.

Much of our high quality environmental data comes from cold war research - ocean tempretures were first mapped at large scale by Scripps in order to use thermoclines to pinpoint submarines and other sounds in water.

In the civilian arena, Cape Grim is of interest: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Grim_Air_Archive

https://researchdata.edu.au/cape-grim-air-archive/678420

This and other global references informs us about the changing atmospheric makeup and other experiments inform us about the increase in trapped heat from incoming solar radiation.

replies(1): >>t0bia_+PG2
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32. Grafik+yG2[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 11:53:46
>>Valgri+2a
I do plan on using permaculture and similar small scale personal farming strategies.

I have not thought or planed t have a lot of machines running.

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33. t0bia_+PG2[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-29 11:56:24
>>defros+KN1
Those data from measured ocean temperature needs to be readjusted:

Before about 1940, the most common method for measuring sea surface temperature was to throw a bucket attached to a rope overboard from a ship, haul it back up, and read the water temperature. The method was far from perfect. Depending on the air temperature, the water temperature could change as the bucket was pulled from the water. (1)

In the late 1970s ... tracking what was happening to Earth temperatures was at a relatively primitive state. Much of the relevant weather station data had not been digitized and what had been, was not widely available. Previous estimates of temperature changes ... had focused on the northern hemisphere, but that obviously missed half the planet. (2) interactive map: (3)

There is analysis showing differences in model temperature variation models and actual data from balloons and satellites since 1979. (4)

Those are few examples how our ability to measure things changes with our developing knowledge.

Rising temperatures is not new phenomena. Greenland ice core project (5) showing that there was about 25 dramatic climate changes in history. Its called Dansgaard–Oeschger event. (6), (7) and shows that for example during Younger Dryas (8) there was dramatic temperature decline and increase in few decades.

Making predictions on data since 70's are fragile and should be constantly reanalyzed.

(1) https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3071/the-r...

(2) https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/history/

(3) https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data_v4_globe/

(4) https://naturalresources.house.gov/uploadedfiles/christytest...

(5) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_ice_core_project

(6) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_eve...

(7) https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2021-11/2%20He...

(8) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas

replies(1): >>defros+Ef5
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34. defros+Ef5[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-30 01:11:59
>>t0bia_+PG2
You've provided links to things the vast bulk of people in earth sciences, particularly climatic related earth and atmospherics are already well aware of.

Yet they, in near majority, still stand behind the broad predictions of future climate change - even being aware of the work of Smale and Lorenz .. perhaps it's that 40+ year old understanding of stability, robustness, and the Dzhanibekov effect in which the broad arc of motion is entirely predictable despite wobbles on a minor axis or two.

Normalisation and may other adjustments to data sets are stock in trade operations across all the observational sciences- geophysical mineral exploration, radiometric surveying, radio astronomy, distributed signal aquisition, etc. etc. etc. You'll note for example that NASA et al are out in front about doing such things.

Predictions of trains headed for derailment based on speed, mass, and topography are not refuted by an inability to predict where the centrepiece vase in the dining car comes to rest.

replies(1): >>t0bia_+Eh6
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35. singin+JN5[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-30 07:15:10
>>textbo+pg
Mate, it's not, it's based on extraordinarily well understood theories around the how chemical bonds and the electromagnetic spectrum work. That is the theory behind the mechanism for anthropogenic climate change is based on exactly the same science that allows big chunks of the infrastructure of civilisation to work - that is, chemistry, quantum physics and arithmetic/accountancy.
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36. t0bia_+Eh6[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-30 12:02:15
>>defros+Ef5
Problem is that speed is unknown variable that change with our knowledge. Yet, we make conclusions, over 50 years, that was and still are false.

From history we know, how terrified population is easier to manipulate by those who offer easy solutions.

replies(1): >>defros+Bj6
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37. defros+Bj6[view] [source] [discussion] 2024-01-30 12:18:01
>>t0bia_+Eh6
You're not making a STEM case that the AGW argument is flawed.

The physics is sound. The grasp of physics many dissenters have is not.

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