zlacker

People said that about virtualized code, but then computers got 100x faster and now we're running 10 megabyte web apps in a 500 megabyte client to display a simple page of text, and it still loads acceptably fast.

The AI algos will get 100x faster through a combination of hardware and software optimizations. Then, deterministic vs AI will mean the unnoticeable difference between displaying some info to the user in 0.001s vs 0.1s. Then, AI will become the default.

>>everfr+(OP)
I'm not sure if this actually correct. Performance increases were reliable and consistent for a long time but we're reaching the physical limitations of Moore's law. Unless you have new physics or new models of computation, we might reach an actual speed limit this decade when the transistors are limited but the size of atoms.

I also believe there will always be a need for determinism. There will absolutely be applications where the randomness of ai is unacceptable.

>>__loam+A4
New models of computation are a given, and improved application-specific circuits for the most widely-used models are also a given (I believe current models run mostly on enterprise GPUs). Together these could easily make AI models 100x more efficient even without any advancements in the underlying chipmaking processes.

> I also believe there will always be a need for determinism. There will absolutely be applications where the randomness of ai is unacceptable.

For high-assurance apps, I agree there will always be a need, sure. Of course, these high-assurance apps will be supervised by AI that can inspect it and raise alarm bells if anything unexpected happens.

For consumer apps though, an app might actually feel less "random" to the user if there's an AI that can intuit exactly what they are trying to accomplish when they perform certain actions in the app (much like a friendly tech-savvy teacher sitting down with you to help you accomplish something in the app).

>>everfr+ra
You have a lot of faith in this ai stuff. It's not magic.

>>__loam+0i
AI is already considerably more knowledgeable and easier to communicate with than the customer service representatives I interact with day to day. Interacting with an API through ChatGPT, I would have a lot more faith that my inquiry would be solved given the tools available at that customer service tier.

It's only been three years since AI Dungeon opened my mind to how powerful generative AI could be, and GPT-4 blows that out of the water. Whatever gets released three more years from now will likely blow GPT-4 out of the water.

AI is already considerably smarter than the dumbest humans, in terms of its ability to hold a conversation in natural language and make arguments based on fact. It's only a matter of time before it's smarter than the average human, and at the current pace, that time will arrive within the next decade.

All useful technology improves over time, and I see no reason to believe AI will be any different.