Looking over my front page archive, that's one of the first big site-related shifts I've noticed, and it's quiet pronounced:
216 Year: 2007
333 Year: 2008
270 Year: 2009
202 Year: 2010
168 Year: 2011
184 Year: 2012
191 Year: 2013
271 Year: 2014
289 Year: 2015
362 Year: 2016
343 Year: 2017
396 Year: 2018
326 Year: 2019
83 Year: 2020
64 Year: 2021
67 Year: 2022
37 Year: 2023
I've not gone through to look at other domains specifically, but NYT typically shows up in the top 3--4 sites through 2019, then falls to #7 in 2020, #9 in 2021, and recovers to #5 in 2022.That's a pretty big movement as these things go.
https://open.nytimes.com/we-re-launched-the-new-york-times-p...
That cut looks a lot like a consequence of changing approaches to monetarization.
2018-1 *************************************************************************
2018-2 ************************************************************
2018-3 **********************************************
2018-4 *********************************************************************
2018-5 ***********************************************************************
2018-6 *******************************************************************
2018-7 ****************************************
2018-8 ********************************************
2018-9 ****************************************************************
2018-10 *************************************************
2018-11 *****************************************************
2018-12 ****************************************************************
2019-1 ************************************************
2019-2 *************************************************
2019-3 ************************************************
2019-4 *******************************************************************
2019-5 *******************************************************************
2019-6 *****************************************************************
2019-7 ******************************
2019-8 ******************************************
2019-9 ************************************************
2019-10 ********************************************
2019-11 ***********************************
2019-12 ********************************
2020-1 ************
2020-2 ************
2020-3 *****************
2020-4 ************
2020-5 *******
2020-6 *******
2020-7 ************
2020-8 ************
2020-9 *******
2020-10 *******************
2020-11 ********
2020-12 *****************
(July seems to be an annual slump in HN -- NYT submissions for some reason, which confounds analysis somewhat.)(Apologies to mobile readers ;-)
It'd be interesting to, say, look at a number of sites which have gone paywall and see how that impact on HN front-page posts.
Off the top of my head, some of those would be:
- NYTimes
- WSJ
- Quora
- WaPo
- LA Times
If anyone has a handy list, especially with dates, I'd appreciate it.
Here's the top 40 "general news" sites with barplots by year. I know that NYT, WSJ, WaPo, LA Times, telegraph.co.uk, and possibly a few others have paywalls and may have implemented them over this period. Pastebin to spare readers here another monster text post, expires in a month:
https://www.pieces-et-monnaies.com/nl-nl/products/le-bassin-...
People did notice paywalls going up.
- NY Times: ~August 2019
- BBC: none
- The Guardian: none
- Washington Post: June 2013. <>>5829206 > HN traffic actually rose. Tightened markedly in 2018: <https://web.archive.org/web/20171213135245/https://reason.co...>
- Reuters: April 2021 <>>26820053 >
- NPR: none
- CNN: none
- Slate: 2015 (International readers) <>>9821492 >
- Vice: none?
- LA TImes: Paywalled, 2012. <https://www.huffpost.com/entry/la-times-paywall_n_1299997>
- CNet: none
- Yahoo: none
- SFGate: 2015 <https://old.reddit.com/r/bayarea/comments/2sj78h/death_spira...>
- cbc.ca: none
- CNBC: none
- guardian.co.uk: none
- vox.com: none (though discussed)
- salon.com: none?
Mixed bag on impacts, though I suspect paywalls going up or tightening has a lot to do with FP story trends.
Paywalls certainly seem associated with a few declines (NYT, WaPo), but not others. E.g., NPR and CBC.ca both fell off a cliff in 2022, PBS fell after 2008. None impose paywalls.
Might be a pattern there, could just be noise.