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1. brenns+(OP)[view] [source] 2023-05-16 15:42:06
Reminds me of SBF calling for crypto regulations while running FTX. Being seen as friendly to regulations is great for optics compared to being belligerently anti-regulation. You can appear responsible and benevolent, and get more opportunity to weaken regulation by controlling more of the narrative. And hey, if you get end up getting some regulatory capture making competition harder, that's a great benefit too.

OpenAI != FTX, just meaning to say calling for regulation isn't an indication of good intentions, despite sounding like it.

replies(11): >>JumpCr+K4 >>Barrin+k6 >>thrway+3d >>lyleja+2e >>bparso+rl >>stuckk+3u >>varian+sD >>asdfma+q01 >>grader+2y1 >>dicknu+zA1 >>srslac+vC1
2. JumpCr+K4[view] [source] 2023-05-16 15:59:48
>>brenns+(OP)
> Reminds me of SBF calling for crypto regulations while running FTX

Scott Galloway called it the stop-me-before-I-kill-grandma defence. (Paraphrasing.)

You made money making a thing. You continue to make the thing. You’re telling us how the thing will bring doom and gloom if not dealt with (conveniently implying it will change the world). And you want to staff the regulatory body you call for with the very butchers you’re castigating.

replies(2): >>bick_n+Cp >>m00x+eq
3. Barrin+k6[view] [source] 2023-05-16 16:04:58
>>brenns+(OP)
Neither is it an indication of bad intentions and I don't even think SBF was dishonest, his general behavior doesn't exactly suggest he's some Machiavellian mastermind.

This is always the first comment when someone in an industry talks about regulation but it doesn't change the fact that it's needed and they're essentially right regardless of what motivations they have.

replies(4): >>JumpCr+h8 >>rqtwte+o8 >>brenns+Q8 >>diggin+4a
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4. JumpCr+h8[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 16:12:48
>>Barrin+k6
Altman is simultaneously pumping a crypto project [1].

[1] https://www.yahoo.com/news/worldcoin-chatgpt-sam-altman-ethe...

replies(2): >>Fillig+jl >>wellth+JI
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5. rqtwte+o8[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 16:13:02
>>Barrin+k6
" his general behavior doesn't exactly suggest he's some Machiavellian mastermind."

Come on! You don't get to the place he got to by accident. This requires careful planning and ruthless execution. He just faked being the nerdy kid who wants to do good and is surprised by the billions coming to him.

replies(3): >>JumpCr+E8 >>glitch+Hb >>Barrin+5i
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6. JumpCr+E8[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 16:13:46
>>rqtwte+o8
> his general behavior doesn't exactly suggest he's some Machiavellian mastermind

>> don't get to the place he got to by accident

You both agree. Bankman-Fried was a dumb Machiavellian.

replies(1): >>serf+xa
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7. brenns+Q8[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 16:14:27
>>Barrin+k6
Isn't the reason that the industry person is "right" about regulation being necessary usually... because the tide of public opinion is turning towards regulation, so they are getting ahead as my strategy above described? It's difficult to give credit to these folks for being "right" when it's more accurately described as "trying to save their profit margins".
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8. diggin+4a[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 16:20:06
>>Barrin+k6
You might say that any regulation is better than none, but bad regulation can be way more insidious and have unique dangers.

As a blunt analogy, let's say there's no law against murder right now. You and I both agree that we need a law against murder. But I have the ear of lawmakers, and I go sit down with them and tell them that you and I agree: We need a law against murder.

And then I help them write a law that makes murder illegal. Only, not all killing counts as murder, obviously. So if it's an accident, no murder. Self defense? No murder. And also if they are doing anything that "threatens" my business interests, not murder. Great, we've got a law that prevents unnecessary killing! And now I get to go ~~murder you~~ defend my business interests when you protest that the new law seems unfair.

replies(1): >>JumpCr+Od
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9. serf+xa[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 16:21:57
>>JumpCr+E8
being labeled a machiavellian may as well be a label for 'maliciously self-serving', unless you're referring to Machiavelli's work on the 'Discoures on Livy' -- and no one ever is referring to that aspect of Machiavelli when labeling people with the phrase.
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10. glitch+Hb[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 16:25:46
>>rqtwte+o8
Grifters have to believe their own Koolaid first before they can convince others.
11. thrway+3d[view] [source] 2023-05-16 16:31:07
>>brenns+(OP)
FWIW, OpenAI and FTX leadership share the same ideology
replies(5): >>seattl+he >>tern+Ki >>peepee+zo >>zapata+Kr >>biggoo+wW
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12. JumpCr+Od[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 16:34:42
>>diggin+4a
> then I help them write a law that makes murder illegal. Only, not all killing counts as murder, obviously. So if it's an accident, no murder. Self defense? No murder…now I get to go ~~murder you~~ defend my business interests

Isn’t this a classic case of some regulation being better than none? You could have murdered them at the start, too.

replies(1): >>diggin+Eh
13. lyleja+2e[view] [source] 2023-05-16 16:35:32
>>brenns+(OP)
> get more opportunity to weaken regulation by controlling more of the narrative

You've got it backwards. I bet OpenAI wants those regulations to be as restrictive as possible. They'll just negotiate an exception for themselves. With increased regulation comes an increased initial cost for competitors to get started in the space. They want to lock down their near monopoly as soon as they can.

replies(1): >>sebzim+ls
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14. seattl+he[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 16:36:15
>>thrway+3d
Which ideology is that? Only thing I've heard about is "ruthless altruism" or something like that.
replies(1): >>to11mt+9T
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15. diggin+Eh[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 16:50:00
>>JumpCr+Od
Yes, but if I had murdered them at the start or even tried, maybe people would say, "Hey, this is murder and it's bad." Now I've got the force of law and authority on my side. You either allow me to do murders or you're the one causing problems. It may be quite a bit harder to change things and there will be irreparable damage before we do.
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16. Barrin+5i[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 16:51:38
>>rqtwte+o8
>Come on! You don't get to the place he got to by accident.

You can literally become president of the US by accident these days. SBF self-reported to a random journalist one day after all hell broke lose with messages so incriminating the reporter had to confirm that it was a real conversation.

Half of the American elite class voluntarily sat on the board of a bogus company just because the woman running it was attractive and wore black turtlenecks. The sad reality is that these people aren't ruthless operators, they're just marginally less clueless than the people who got them into their positions

replies(1): >>rqtwte+RU
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17. tern+Ki[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 16:54:05
>>thrway+3d
This is mostly not true in my experience
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18. Fillig+jl[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 17:05:47
>>JumpCr+h8
Which is sufficient reason to avoid OpenAI now, frankly.
19. bparso+rl[view] [source] 2023-05-16 17:06:22
>>brenns+(OP)
This is also a way for industry incumbents to pull up the ladder behind them.

Once you gain the lead position, it is in your interest to increase the barriers to entry as much as possible.

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20. peepee+zo[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 17:19:43
>>thrway+3d
oy vey
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21. bick_n+Cp[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 17:23:42
>>JumpCr+K4
Sure, I get it, but if Sam Altman quit tomorrow, would it stop Economic Competition -> Microsoft Shareholders -> Microsoft -> OpenAI?

Is there really a better alternative here?

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22. m00x+eq[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 17:26:48
>>JumpCr+K4
Except they don't make any money from their products. They're losing hundreds of millions per month.

This isn't the same at all.

replies(4): >>mola+bz >>itroni+G01 >>Mistle+G31 >>m00x+yd4
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23. zapata+Kr[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 17:34:25
>>thrway+3d
Make money and try to acquire a monopoly?
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24. sebzim+ls[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 17:36:35
>>lyleja+2e
I'm sure this is the plan, but I don't see how OpenAI will be able to damage e.g. Anthropic without equally damaging themselves.
replies(1): >>runako+mK
25. stuckk+3u[view] [source] 2023-05-16 17:44:43
>>brenns+(OP)
Just waiting for the Forbes cover to drop, then I can confirm we are doomed. lol
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26. mola+bz[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 18:12:36
>>m00x+eq
Well, this will give em time. Right now LLM have become a commodity. Everybody is got them and can research and develoo them. OpenAI is without a product, it has no advantage. But if the general public will be limited. It'll be hard to catch up to openAI.

I'm sry for the cynicism, but Altman seems very much disingenuous with this.

replies(1): >>hammyh+yF
27. varian+sD[view] [source] 2023-05-16 18:36:55
>>brenns+(OP)
> OpenAI != FTX, just meaning to say calling for regulation isn't an indication of good intentions, despite sounding like it.

I'd argue that any business advocating for regulation is largely motivated by its own pursuit of regulatory capture.

replies(1): >>stingr+yp1
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28. hammyh+yF[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 18:47:13
>>mola+bz
OpenAI is currently registered as a non-profit, yet they're projecting a billion dollars in revenue in 2024, and they sell access to their APIs, which if their previous spending is anything to go by, means they'll see half a billion dollars in profit if we assume they aren't going to reinvest it all.

Some big assumptions.

replies(1): >>happyt+tU
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29. wellth+JI[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 19:02:05
>>JumpCr+h8
It’s a disgrace
replies(1): >>lubesG+I71
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30. runako+mK[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 19:10:32
>>sebzim+ls
It's not just about Anthropic & other 10-figure companies, it's about ensuring an oligopoly instead of a market with cutthroat competition.
replies(1): >>greisk+zd1
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31. to11mt+9T[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 19:46:57
>>seattl+he
"Effective Altruism", which sounds nice but when you look at it from the right angle it's just a form of 'public lobbying' rather than direct government lobbying.

"Oh, this person donated X/Y to Z/Q causes! They can't be that bad right?"

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32. happyt+tU[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 19:53:40
>>hammyh+yF
> OpenAI is an American artificial intelligence (AI) research laboratory consisting of the non-profit OpenAI Incorporated and its for-profit subsidiary corporation OpenAI Limited Partnership.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI

Just FYI, what you're saying isn't accurate. It was, but it's not anymore.

replies(1): >>hammyh+7O1
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33. rqtwte+RU[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 19:55:39
>>Barrin+5i
"You can literally become president of the US by accident these days."

Who became president by accident? You may not like them personally or their politics , but I am not aware of any president that didn't put enormous amounts of work and effort over years into becoming president.

replies(1): >>rurp+rY
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34. biggoo+wW[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 20:03:51
>>thrway+3d
This is disappointing, I expected a bit more from OpenAI than to fall for the nerd snipe that is EA.
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35. rurp+rY[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 20:12:56
>>rqtwte+RU
Trump spent a great deal of time during the 2016 campaign setting up projects to cash in on a loss (like a new tv station). This very little sign that he spent time preparing to actually win and serve as president. It wasn't really an outlandish idea either, most presidential candidates these days do it primarily to raise a profile they can cash in on via punditry, books, etc.
replies(2): >>mrangl+Pq1 >>rqtwte+Jf4
36. asdfma+q01[view] [source] 2023-05-16 20:23:10
>>brenns+(OP)
FB ran TV ads asking for regulation too.

What established player doesn’t want to make it as hard as possible to compete with them?

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37. itroni+G01[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 20:24:10
>>m00x+eq
FTX was also losing money.
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38. Mistle+G31[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 20:41:08
>>m00x+eq
It may be more the same than you know. FTX had tons of investors in it that was jumpstarting and fueling the whole ponzi...

>According to a report from the Information, OpenAI's losses have doubled to $540 million since it started developing ChatGPT and similar products.

I mean sure that may be a drop in the bucket compared to the 29B valuation for Open AI, but-

>Sept. 22, 2022

>Crypto Exchange FTX May Get a $32 Billion Valuation. That’s Probably Too Much.

OpenAI investors, Apr 2023-

Tiger Global Management Andreessen Horowitz Thrive Capital Sequoia Capital K2 Global

FTX investors, Jan 2022-

Insight Partners Lightspeed Venture Partners Tiger Global Management New Enterprise Associates Temasek Institutional Venture Partners Steadview Capital SoftBank Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Paradigm

replies(1): >>brooks+761
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39. brooks+761[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 20:52:04
>>Mistle+G31
Are you suggesting that OpenAI is a ponzi scheme where early investors are being paid with funds from later investors?
replies(1): >>Mistle+UW3
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40. lubesG+I71[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 21:02:24
>>wellth+JI
I think the idea is that you need some way to filter out the bots, so 'worldcoin' or 'worldid' is used to prove 'personhood'.
replies(1): >>wellth+sN1
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41. greisk+zd1[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 21:35:45
>>runako+mK
Exactly. They want to have AI as a service. If any startup could do it's own AI on the cheap, this would not be possible (or at least not so profitable). They don't mind having other big competitors, they think they can win over big competitors with their marketing and first mover advantage.
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42. stingr+yp1[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 22:51:43
>>varian+sD
Didn’t Facebook / Meta also do something similar during the whole “fake news” controversy?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/15/facebook-ceo-zuckerberg-call...

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43. mrangl+Pq1[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-16 23:00:45
>>rurp+rY
I wouldn't call Trump's win an accident. He spoke passionately to the core political agenda of the GOP voter base: illegal immigration. Which the Neocons willfully ignored, or otherwise under-served, for decades. That's not something that one does if they aren't trying to win.
44. grader+2y1[view] [source] 2023-05-16 23:45:59
>>brenns+(OP)
Or Zuck calling for more regulations of social networks?

I mean, I guess there’s always that play: maybe Sam Altman is simply feigning enthusiasm for this to head off a burgeoning regulatory coup: how can he mobilize support against the regulations He doesn’t want? What would be a great way to galvanize support against the regulations? Maybe by doing exactly what he’s doing: by falling on his sword, and making himself seem like a monopolistic supporter of those?

Sacrificing his reputation for the greater good of open competition on AI? Well, that’s a truly noble move.

It’s a bit of a stretch, but maybe it’s very Washington I don’t know.

A more logical (economic) motivation may be: this news is taken as a threat, in effect creating a sense of scarcity around AI, which could be judged to provoke people into buying more of OpenAI's subscriptions, training, or whatever, to ensure access that, in light of such news, they may now feel is at risk.

So, the move is merely a red herring, a fabricated threat designed to provoke people to spend, not intended to actually create legislation.

Don't know which one of these is more likely if any: or maybe Sama is simply living his best life role playing as a super villain? I guess he's starting to remind me of Niander Wallace in Bladerunner 2049

45. dicknu+zA1[view] [source] 2023-05-17 00:02:37
>>brenns+(OP)
I've been seeing almost weekly posts recently like "I just got out of a meeting where my company plans to replace X people with an AI that does their job for $XX/mo"

The fearmongering and astroturfing is obvious.

46. srslac+vC1[view] [source] 2023-05-17 00:16:57
>>brenns+(OP)
It's all pretty much the same less wrong-effective altruist-crypto grifter-San Francisco sex cult community. sama still grifting with worldcoin, and even before this.
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47. wellth+sN1[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-17 01:42:04
>>lubesG+I71
here is a shocking point of view - bots are a non-issue compared to some entity amassing biometric scans of people. And are even more of a non-issue if you sprinkle that biometric thing with crypto-currency. Then it gets even better (worse) when it's lead by a person who is all about breaking promises ("Open" ai), using fear-mongering (LLM are so dangerous, the world will collapse!) and using regulatory capture as long as it makes him money.
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48. hammyh+7O1[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-17 01:49:36
>>happyt+tU
My internal model lacked data post-2021! I was hallucinating.
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49. Mistle+UW3[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-17 17:30:42
>>brooks+761
It could be, they currently aren't making money really, right? We don't know if they can monetize it and we know the queries are quite expensive computationally.
replies(1): >>brooks+aH4
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50. m00x+yd4[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-17 18:53:45
>>m00x+eq
I reviewed the hearing in more details, and I'm now still in the opinion that it's not the same, but now I think that Sam Altman is a huge c** for this regulatory capture BS.

I cancelled my ChatGPT plus membership. I'll be using OSS solutions like Vicuna from now ion.

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51. rqtwte+Jf4[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-17 19:04:57
>>rurp+rY
Presidential candidates put an enormous effort into winning the campaign. I agree that they don’t spend much time thinking about actual policy. Calling Trump’s win an accident is dangerous. Realistically he put in the work Clinton didn’t because she was too arrogant.
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52. brooks+aH4[view] [source] [discussion] 2023-05-17 21:25:32
>>Mistle+UW3
Isn't that true for every startup that needs capital before it knows if it will succeed? Usually we consider them high risk investments, not ponzi schemes.
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