Some of the evidence is not co-incidence based, for example, the documents that appear to show the US was funding GOF research on bat coronaviruses at the WIV.
However, the reaction of the Chinese authorities (destroy all the evidence, block any investigation) is pretty much the definition of a conspiracy. I'm not sure it merits the term theory anymore - when the authorities are very visibly covering up all the evidence related to a critical event, that's what a conspiracy is. The only question now is what is the conspiracy hiding? Well, there's only one obvious possibility, isn't there?