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1. endisn+(OP)[view] [source] 2021-04-09 15:44:55
Thank you for your comment, but your comment is precisely the kind of comment I disagree with.

What difference does it make? Let's say that it's both lab-grown and wild game. OK, so that means we should scrutinize both. OK, then. Now what?

No amount of scrutiny can prevent an accident from occurring. It's not as if this pandemic happens every year. We're talking about a once in a century event. Not to mention some countries prevented the virus from spreading within their own countries very effectively, and others, well, did not.

replies(3): >>SpicyL+f1 >>engine+Q1 >>ckw+h4
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2. SpicyL+f1[view] [source] 2021-04-09 15:49:51
>>endisn+(OP)
We're not talking about a once a century event. This is the third novel coronavirus outbreak in the past 2 decades, and it seems clear that SARS at least could have been pandemic if we hadn't gotten lucky.
replies(1): >>endisn+e2
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3. engine+Q1[view] [source] 2021-04-09 15:52:35
>>endisn+(OP)
Here's an example: one of your local health department's jobs is to scrutinize private businesses sanitation practices so you don't get sick from contaminated food. Ditto the water systems, so you don't get sick from contaminated water. The idea is to prevent complacency.

Prior to that, people did get sick, and public investigations were mounted to pinpoint the problem. Nobody wanted to admit to themselves that they were to blame, that they had hurt or killed someone, but the society benefited from the momentary discomfort and those hard truths.

replies(1): >>endisn+v2
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4. endisn+e2[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-09 15:53:55
>>SpicyL+f1
Sure, but ultimately what's relevant here are the number of deaths. The other two killed orders of magnitude fewer people worldwide given the amount of time, no?
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5. endisn+v2[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-09 15:55:18
>>engine+Q1
I don't think your example is relevant nor is it a good analogy.

The situation is more like you're McDonalds and everyone at your store and your competitors stores are getting food poisoning.

Instead of properly understanding why contaminated food is arriving at your store and stopping the poisoning within your store, you're researching whether or not the contaminated food originated at Burger King.

It's not bad to research whether or not the contaminated food originated at Burger King, but regardless knowing that isn't going to stop the food poisoning from spreading within your store.

I like this analogy because there are already food safety laws just like how there are safety standards for working within a lab. Regardless, accidents happen, and people get poisoned. Kind of like the Chipotle outbreaks.

replies(1): >>engine+C3
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6. engine+C3[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-09 16:01:16
>>endisn+v2
Yes! Exactly like the Chipotle outbreaks!

If you buy tacos from Chipotle and they sell you a tainted taco on accident. You get sick. Hopefully you survive. In any case you will want Chipotle to do a thorough investigation to prevent it from happening again.

replies(2): >>endisn+04 >>engine+s4
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7. endisn+04[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-09 16:03:11
>>engine+C3
Yes, I completely agree.

Now would you want McDonalds to research Chipotle or stop outbreaks in their own stores? Seems pretty obvious to me. Perhaps I'm missing something?

Ultimately Chipotle is already incentivized to figure it out themselves, unless the argument is Chipotle is intentionally infecting their own customers?

Going back to the original point - what the USA should do for its own citizens won't change regardless of whether COVID was an accident, from wild game, etc.

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8. ckw+h4[view] [source] 2021-04-09 16:04:21
>>endisn+(OP)
If the virus was a product of gain of function research, the primary purpose of which is to reduce the risk of pandemics, then the research becomes much more difficult to justify. The argument I guess becomes then, yeah, periodically we’ll cause a pandemic, and millions of people will die, but we’ll be so much better at dealing with diseases that arise naturally, as SARS and MERS did, that on balance it will be worth the extra pandemics...

Whatever you think about this, it seems unbelievably foolish to locate these labs in the middle of metropolises.

replies(2): >>endisn+ge1 >>boring+aF1
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9. engine+s4[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-09 16:05:33
>>engine+C3
Good, I'm glad we agree that investigation matters :)
replies(1): >>endisn+N4
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10. endisn+N4[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-09 16:07:06
>>engine+s4
You've completely misunderstood my point. My point is that we're McDonalds - not Chipotle. Should McDonalds be investigating Chipotle's problems or their own? It's really that simple...

If you believe McDonalds in this analogy should be investigating the origins of Chipotle's problems as opposed to resolving their ongoing issue then we'll just have to agree to disagree.

replies(2): >>neolog+191 >>cronix+eh1
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11. neolog+191[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-09 21:28:59
>>endisn+N4
American Airlines can't reduce its risk by reading Delta's FAA incident reports?
replies(1): >>endisn+pd1
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12. endisn+pd1[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-09 21:57:26
>>neolog+191
That situation isn't analogous, but American Airlines would reduce its risk more by reading its own incident reports compared to Delta's, yes. In general focusing on one's own failings is superior to focusing on another's.

Are you serious?

replies(1): >>neolog+bo1
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13. endisn+ge1[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-09 22:03:15
>>ckw+h4
OK, so what. What can we do to make China stop doing this research if they want to? Are we going to go to war over this? No. Are we going to have an embargo with China? No?

So effectively this becomes a situation of "oh yeah they should've not had that accident, oh well." In the USA we've had the same problem ourselves (lab accidents with pathogens), and we banned gain of function research and ended up removing the ban a few years later.

The entire exercise is meaningless. Note - I'm not even saying we shouldn't research the origins of COVID, what I'm saying is, the result doesn't really matter.

replies(2): >>troyvi+Nl1 >>ckw+jq1
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14. cronix+eh1[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-09 22:21:14
>>endisn+N4
I don't understand your analogy. If a sizeable population of the world got sick from eating at Chipotle...and it was easily communicably spreadable infecting even those that never ate there...and people died as a result (3 MILLION)...and it caused massive world-wide economic damage...I'd bet they'd be quite interested in the cause no matter where they worked. In your analogy, the impact wasn't just limited to those who ate at Chipotle. It was everyone.
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15. troyvi+Nl1[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-09 22:56:30
>>endisn+ge1
Why does it have to be a "we" vs "China" discussion at all? Why don't we think non-politically about it for a minute and recognize that as a global species we have a chance to learn as much as we can from a pandemic that affected us globally so that we can try to do better when the next one inevitably comes along?

And yeah, maybe China doesn't wanna think that way, but let's find out first, and second find out why.

On the other hand there are some great ways to think about this politically. If by "we" you mean the U.S. we don't really have a leg to stand on as far as respect from the international community right now anyway, so any fight we bring to China is basically one on one.

Other countries besides the U.S. would be able to wring significant concessions from China if they chose to a) believe collectively that it was China's malfeasance that caused the pandemic, and b) stood together to demand a response.

replies(1): >>endisn+ro1
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16. neolog+bo1[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-09 23:18:32
>>endisn+pd1
> reduce its risk more by reading its own

Ok but they can do both, right? I mean, I can improve my performance by looking at my own performance, but also watching others.

Moreover, the US can exert a lot of pressure on other countries to meet certain standards and reduce risk. Knowing what went wrong will help determine standards.

It's not like lab-leak-causes-disease only happens once. This happens all the time, just like aircraft incidents. If incidents weren't investigated and tracked, planes would be riskier than they are.

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17. endisn+ro1[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-09 23:20:52
>>troyvi+Nl1
There’s nothing to learn though:

It’s either from wild animals, it was an accident, or it was spread with malice. In all scenarios we already have procedures around gain of function research, limiting interaction with animals in markets and biological weapons, respectively.

If the prevailing theory was that it came from an asteroid that would be interesting.

I personally doubt China would pay anything even if it was a lab accident. I guess we’ll see.

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18. ckw+jq1[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-09 23:41:09
>>endisn+ge1
We conduct this sort of research, and in fact the NIH funded gain of function research taking place at WIV. So first we could reinstate the moratorium that was lifted in 2017, and we can stop funding it elsewhere. If the ultimate conclusion is that this research is too dangerous, we can create something analogous to the Biological Weapons Convention, to which China has acceded. I see no reason China wouldn't sign and abide by such a treaty.
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19. boring+aF1[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 02:26:56
>>ckw+h4
> Whatever you think about this, it seems unbelievably foolish to locate these labs in the middle of metropolises.

Is there a viable other option?

Don't these facilities require large numbers of extremely highly educated staff?

replies(1): >>ckw+UO1
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20. ckw+UO1[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 04:50:41
>>boring+aF1
Rocky Mountain Labs is located in Hamilton, Montana, population 5080.

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/rocky-mountain-overview

replies(1): >>boring+uP1
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21. boring+uP1[view] [source] [discussion] 2021-04-10 05:01:34
>>ckw+UO1
Touché, didn't know that. I've actually been to Bitter Root Brewing, just a block or two away, but somehow completely missed it. Oh well, I guess they probably don't give tours anyway.
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