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1. colejo+(OP)[view] [source] 2020-06-01 22:09:13
> while it will take at least a year for SCOTUS to reach a decision.

The Supreme Court has the ability to rule on things overnight. A very well known case where they did was Bush v. Gore[0]; The case was argued 11 Dec 2000, and ruled on the next day.

They just generally don’t because ruling overnight would take their focus away from the other cases they need to rule on.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore

replies(1): >>JohnGB+vg
2. JohnGB+vg[view] [source] 2020-06-02 00:02:49
>>colejo+(OP)
That's not a great example as it turned out (years later when the raw data came out) that Gore in fact won Florida. So their overnight decision was objectively wrong.
replies(2): >>kd0amg+Jh >>koheri+7i
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3. kd0amg+Jh[view] [source] [discussion] 2020-06-02 00:14:52
>>JohnGB+vg
The question before the court was a point of law, not a disagreement about vote totals.
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4. koheri+7i[view] [source] [discussion] 2020-06-02 00:19:17
>>JohnGB+vg
This is not accurate. No full recount was ever made. There was a widely publicized sample count commissioned by several media outlets, CNN, LA Times, New York Times, WSJ, etc... that was took of about 4% of the votes from select counties that then counted that Gore would have won by, literally, "60 to 171" votes - not a statistically significant result.

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidentia...

replies(1): >>jcranm+DK
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5. jcranm+DK[view] [source] [discussion] 2020-06-02 04:29:26
>>koheri+7i
The Wikipedia page you cite does not support your position:

> Ultimately, a media consortium [...] hired NORC at the University of Chicago[68] to examine 175,010 ballots that were collected from the entire state, not just the disputed counties that were recounted [...]

That's saying that it was sampled from the entire state rather than "select" counties.

On a broader point, it seems pretty safe to say that a 100% accurate tally of the votes in Florida would have given the state to Gore, but it is unclear if any recount would have given that result. Note that in addition to the infamous hanging chad controversy, there's also a decent chunk of votes for Pat Buchanan in areas that don't match up with his demographic base that were probably meant for Gore.

Or put somewhat differently, Florida in 2000 was a case where the margin of victory was less than its ability to accurately record votes.

replies(1): >>koheri+Ox1
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6. koheri+Ox1[view] [source] [discussion] 2020-06-02 13:01:13
>>jcranm+DK
> it seems pretty safe to say that a 100% accurate tally of the votes in Florida would have given the state to Gore

This is not supported by any of the sources in the wikipedia page. There don't seem to be any sources saying how the sample was collected from each or which counties. ...you are right it does not say "select".

But regardless, a margin of ~100 votes on a sample of 175K votes is not a margin with which you can make the statement "it seems pretty safe to say that a 100% accurate tally of the votes in Florida would have given the state to Gore" ...that's ludicrous.

replies(1): >>jcranm+BD1
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7. jcranm+BD1[view] [source] [discussion] 2020-06-02 13:40:50
>>koheri+Ox1
You've misunderstood my point.

We know that the butterfly ballots were a poor design that caused vote confusion, and we also know that Bush was less affected by this than Gore (by virtue of the fact that Bush was the first hole, and thus any misalignment caused by an oblique view would line up with no hole, as opposed to oblique views causing Gore's arrow to line up with Buchanan's hole).

From the actual results, we know there is a chunk of votes in Palm Beach for Buchanan that doesn't seem appropriate. According to Buchanan's campaign, this would be a bit shy of 3000 votes for Buchanan that should have been for Gore [1]. No recount would have changed these votes (nor should one), but a more accurate voting machine would have given these votes to Gore.

That's why I say that it seems safe to say that Gore legitimately won Florida, on the basis on what the voters intended to vote, but it's quite unclear what even the best recount would have said the winner is.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Buchanan#2000_presidential...

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