We know that the butterfly ballots were a poor design that caused vote confusion, and we also know that Bush was less affected by this than Gore (by virtue of the fact that Bush was the first hole, and thus any misalignment caused by an oblique view would line up with no hole, as opposed to oblique views causing Gore's arrow to line up with Buchanan's hole).
From the actual results, we know there is a chunk of votes in Palm Beach for Buchanan that doesn't seem appropriate. According to Buchanan's campaign, this would be a bit shy of 3000 votes for Buchanan that should have been for Gore [1]. No recount would have changed these votes (nor should one), but a more accurate voting machine would have given these votes to Gore.
That's why I say that it seems safe to say that Gore legitimately won Florida, on the basis on what the voters intended to vote, but it's quite unclear what even the best recount would have said the winner is.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Buchanan#2000_presidential...