zlacker

Amazon is now the only store open. This will clearly accelerate the death of retail, to the point that I'm not even sure it will survive.

We must have a rent holiday if those businesses and their workers are to survive.

>>taurat+(OP)
> We must have a rent holiday if those businesses and their workers are to survive.

We'll get a lot of rent forgiveness naturally. If a strip mall has some tenants who cannot make rent in this crisis, who are they going to get who can pay? The pragmatic approach is to keep your existing tenants, because their survival is your strip mall's survival.

>>Walter+T
A cynical, calculating strip mall landlord might think they're more likely to get a government cash handout (or a cash handout to their tenants who then hand it to them, which is effectively the same thing) if they prove their tenants will go bankrupt without it.

>>Walter+T
Will that happen for housing? The businesses will lose all their workers during that time, and everyone will go work in an amazon warehouse.

>>Walter+T
We might get a lot, but it likely won’t be enough.

Many land owners would already prefer to leave their buildings empty for years over even considering negotiating on rent. I doubt anything can change their minds.

>>fiblye+W2
It’s odd but really true. Does anyone have insight why this is the case?

>>social+F3
According to Strong Towns, it's because the building can borrow money based on the projected value of rent. If they lower the rent, they can't borrow as much money.

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2017/11/27/the-paradox-o...

>>taurat+(OP)
>Amazon is now the only store open.

I've had Amazon Fresh cancel two orders so far so I'm not sure how open they are.

>>fiblye+W2
We need taxes on vacancies. Encourage people to let property go to people who can put it to some use. Prevent blight and crime, etc, too.

>>taurat+(OP)
Which area are you in?

Every large retail store is open (so far) in Southern California, with most retailers' inventory being purchased at full retail prices.

I am not sure why the retailers don't switch to curbside-pickup model exclusively, instead preferring hordes of customers roaming around every single morning, but from what I hear, Instacart and store-specific delivery programs are overwhelmed.

>>fiblye+W2
Not if they're short on cash, which they will be with this panic.

>>michae+R2
It simply does the landlord no good at all to evict them.

>>majorm+n8
Ah yes, the California solution to everything - tax it.

>>umeshu+Sa
Honest question - should taxes be abolished?

>>umeshu+Sa
Even the most die-hard libertarian economist believes in Pigouvian taxes to address externalities. If vacant buildings are an externality cost, they should be taxed.

>>umeshu+Sa
smh California has had a rigid cap on property taxes since like the late 70s. That decision is largely why the rest of California's taxes are so high.

>>prosto+59
They are open in Southern California, but running out of basics fast. I noticed a complete lack of certain produce, milk, eggs, bread, as well as the oft meme'd paper products.

Every morning I go to the grocery store in my neighborhood looking for toilet paper and every morning there is some new staple nearly out of stock. I still have a few rolls left, and amazon seems to have a few remaining in stock, so things aren't dire yet, but they are getting concerning.

This is also a city where not too long ago the social contract evaporated after hearing a verdict, requiring military intervention to restore order. An armed militia formerly stood on the roof of the store I scoured today for toilet paper. I'm fearful of what will happen when everyone realizes they can no longer wipe their ass or buy rice and the working class starts getting laid off en masse, and when this virus starts ravaging the 150k+ homeless in southern california.

>>asdff+gi
Thus far the consumables supply chain in the US hasn’t been too badly effected. They’re doing thanksgiving or more amounts of business every day here in Seattle but they’re mostly keeping up. Whether we as a nation rip ourselves apart is on each of us as individuals to make that not happen.

>>asdff+gi
I don't have any visibility into the supply chain, but LATimes suggests the supply chain for at least toilet paper are operating normally https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-03-14/coronaviru...

It's partially due to hoarding, partially due to panic buying, and partially due to the lockdown of many schools and businesses, which caused most eating+drinking+related activity to move home, raising household demands on food and toilet paper above normal.

Also, if you're supposed to show your face in public as infrequently as possible, then instead of 10 shopping trips you're better off making 1 shopping trip buying 10x the stuff. Which exacerbates availability.

>>social+F3
At an aggregate level it can make more sense to leave X% of units vacant than to lower prices (which could have effects on the rate you can charge with the rest of your units). I think it’s an example of our financial system not working as intended.

For example let’s say I have a 100 unit apartment building. If I maintain a 20% vacancy rate target I can charge an average of $1000/mo/unit. But to set a price at which my vacancies get filled very quickly, to hit a 5% vacancy rate, maybe I need to charge $700/mo/unit. In that case I’m making less money than before - $80k/mo vs $66.5k/mo.

>>taurat+yl
Grocery stores in my part of northern New Jersey are not keeping up, at the moment. On Saturday I was unable to buy fresh meat (of any kind), sausage (without cheese in it), flour, pasta, or canned beans. Produce pickings were slim, and most items were sold out. Ditto canned soup and bread. That's just the things I was actually looking for; there were plenty of other bare shelves throughout the store.

>>Vector+P6
I can't even place an Amazon Fresh order right now, and the earliest Peapod delivery date I can get is 28MAR.

>>umeshu+Sa
Quite literally the opposite of the situation in California, but go off.

>>majorm+n8
Put a land value tax in place, and then the incentive to hold property for speculation goes away, in favour of selling it to people who can use it productively.

>>maest+kc
Honest answer: No, because that would mean to return to Hobbesian world.

Taxes are a way to pay for communal goods. We don't pay enough of them - our obsession with cutting them is part and parcel of the disastrous response to SARS2-CoV.

I very much like having a government that can step in during emergencies and distribute the load. I like living in a society where we care about other people to.

Abolishing taxes is strictly "me first, fuck the rest". I suggest people who like this approach try living in Somalia for a while, that's their desired end state.

>>asdff+gi
The social contract didn't "evaporate" - it was never followed by the richer half, and at some point, people got tired of being shat upon.

I suggest we start addressing inequalities and maybe all cut back a bit and share the burden, instead of hoarding now and then being surprised that the people unable to hoard object to that idea when nothing is left for them, at all. That means taking care of the working class and the homeless, too.

>>taurat+(OP)
That's not true. at the very least, Walmart is open, does deliveries, and doesn't charge a monthly fee, unlike Amazon Prime!

>>vonmol+Gx
It's kind of strange to see a complete breakdown in online ordering and delivery of groceries. Target etc... basically shut down curbside delivery because they need people to restock shelves. That means you have to visit the store. Odd. I expect to see grocery only delivery companies really take shape soon (like Instacart).

>>fiblye+W2
they prefer to leave the building empty in anticipation of a higher priced long-term lease in the future. if you're already renting space to a profitable business that was stable before the crisis, the incentives are probably to work out an arrangement with the business that helps it not go under. now if you're already unsatisfied with the current tenant, you might see now as a good opportunity to kick them out and wait for someone willing to pay a higher price.

>>opport+Bp
why wouldn't you just price discriminate through short-term concessions to fill the remaining 20% and increase revenue? this seems to be what most apartment buildings around me actually do.

>>prosto+59
imagine how many employees would be needed to support curb-side pickup at walmart at anything like the stores current throughput. judging by the number of people I see pushing two full carts through the checkout line, you might even need more than one employee for each simultaneous pickup transaction.

>>Walter+T
If you think the mall won't survive anyway, then this calculation changes though and instead you look to recoup as much as you can in the short term. Ordinarily this is a good thing because it forces unviable businesses to cease trading and the people and resources can be redeployed into something more productive (and in many countries at an individual level the people will receive help from the government to do this without ruining their lives).

The idea here is to minimise the long term damage caused by people being forced into liquidation as a route to recoup losses and increase protection for individuals who are also temporarily affected.

>>lmm+uK
> Put a land value tax in place

We already have that. I pay huge property taxes every year and so does everyone else who owns land.

>>leetcr+2v1
That is what people do sometimes (esp. in SF where you'll get "2 months free rent"). But I think in commercial real estate the math is a bit different because leases tend to be longer - so you really don't want to budge on the actual monthly rate and even 1-2 months free doesn't end up helping the prospective tenant that much

>>Walter+ru2
Not the same thing. Property taxes based on the improved value of the land create a perverse incentive to avoid making improvements, and California prop 8 and similar laws encourage people to hold property as long as possible rather than sell to people who could make better use of it.