zlacker

That presumes they have some idea of the short-term forward volatility of the rubble

My guess is that your typo isn't too far from the truth. Everything we've seen lately with regard to falling oil prices is geared towards attacking the Putin regime. Eventually the Russian people will find themselves living in a North Korean-style pariah state... or else they'll wake up and take drastic action to keep that from happening. Either way the medium-term outlook for the ruble is pretty much toast.

>>Camper+(OP)
Or maybe Putin is popular enough to survive changing course in Ukraine before the economy is completely trashed. Also do you have a source that oil prices are being manipulated to punish Putin? Seems likely but I haven't seen anything.

>>happys+V2
I've also seen it suggested that the oil price drop is a "stealth" sanction against Russia, but I don't follow the logic. Why do the Saudis want to sanction Russia? Unless one presumes some unspecified quid-pro-quo conspiracy between the US and the Saudis, I don't see it. I thrink driving the volatility up like this slows the investment rate in US shale oil significantly, and that's what the Saudis are doing.

>>semi-e+p7
Russia supports Bachar's regime. Bachar blocks Qatar's & Saudi oil/gas pipe from passing through Syria towards European market. Europe remains dependent on Russian gas(30%) and oil for another round. Saudis get angry and want to topple Bachar. Russia says no way. Saudis kick Russia in the groin economically by raising the oil production. Now it makes sense ? (lower oil price combined with other EU & US sanctions bring Russia on the brink of collapse: EU, US & Saudis high five furiously)

>>leavey+Gc
Nothing you said makes sense because the Saudis didn't increase production and at 12% of global supply do not have the capacity to change the price on the scale we're seeing without it being glad you obvious. The price is dropping because the Chinese and European economies are soft and becuase of increased supply from Libya in the short term along with the long term increases from the US, Russia, Canada, etc.

>>Steko+vl
these sources indicate otherwise. Saudi Arabia started the current trend: businessweek.com/articles/2014-10-23/oil-saudi-arabias-risky-price-play

bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-16/saudi-arabia-oil-stance-seen-targeting-opec-output-discipline.html

wsj.com/articles/saudi-oil-price-cut-upends-market-1415063053

>>leavey+Vm
Your citations directly contradict your fantasy that this revolves around Bashar or punishing Russia. Bloomberg says the Saudis raised production only half a percent to defend their market share from the U.S., Russia and Canada's continued increases, basically what I said above. The price doesn't drop 20% because one supplier who has 12% market share increased their supply 0.5%.

>>Steko+vl
you are just trolling. the articles talk about cutting prices and increasing production by Saudi Arabia. you said there wasn't an increase of production and that SA is not able to move the price. false. move along. thanks.

>>leavey+Ro
You had an entire fantasy about punishing Russia and it all revolving around Syria which isn't even supported by your own citations. Good day.

>>Steko+4s
you didn't ask for citations and I'm not your researcher here (youtube syria yourself). I gave you the sources that I wanted for the points you questioned initially. I should have ignored your entire comment when you called everything I said as fantasy without giving any citations or proof for your opinions. now go and argue to the next table.