It is entirely possible for someone to be 2x faster at coding with AI without increasing their throughput. I believe Claude Code has made me at least 2x as productive. But I can easily see why a 2x increase in individual development speed may not translate to any increase overall at the level of the whole organization. Because at most organizations the bottleneck is not code, it’s everything else from politics to external blockers to bike shedding and people’s egos. So a developer who is 2x faster at their work may just end up having more free time on their hands. The greatest increases in productivity and throughput are where there are no external blockers, like random side projects, which is exactly where people report the greatest productivity with AI.