In a complex project the hard parts about software are harder than the hard parts about the domain.
I've seen the type of code electrical engineers write (at least as hard a domain as software). They can write code, but it isn't good.
The best part, of course, is that this mostly works, most of the time, for most busineses.
Now, the same domain experts -who still cannot code- will do the exact same thing, but AI will make the spreadsheet more stable (actual data modelling), more resilient (backup infra), more powerful (connect from/to anything), more ergonomic (actual views/UI), and generally more easy to iterate upon (constructive yet adversarial approach to conflicting change requests).
There’s a requisite curiosity necessary to cross the discomfort boundary into how the sausage is made.
Programming is not something you can teach to people who are not interested in it in the first place. This is why campaigns like "Learn to code" are doomed to fail.
Whereas (good) programmers strive to understand the domain of whatever problem they're solving. They're comfortable with the unknown, and know how to ask the right questions and gather requirements. They might not become domain experts, but can certainly learn enough to write software within that domain.
Generative "AI" tools can now certainly help domain experts turn their requirements into software without learning how to program, but the tech is not there yet to make them entirely self-sufficient.
So we'll continue to need both roles collaborating as they always have for quite a while still.
My belief is that engineers should be the prime candidates to be learning the domain, because it can positively influence product development. There’s too many layers between engineers and the the domain IME
Hallucinations sure make spreadsheets nice and stable.
Web dev is low entry barrier and most web devs don’t need a very deep knowledge base.
Embedded, low level language, using optimizations of the OS / hardware require MUCH more specialized knowledge. Most of the 4 year undergraduate program for Computer Science self selects for mathematics inclined students who then learn how to read and learn advanced mathematics / programming concepts.
There’s nothing that is a hard limit to prevent domain expert autodidacts from picking up programming, but the deeper the programming knowledge, the more the distribution curves of programmers / non-programmers will be able to succeed.
Non programmers are more likely to be flexible to find less programming-specific methods to solve the overall problem, which I very much welcome. But I think LLM-based app development mostly just democratizes the entry into programming.
The beauty of LLMs is that they can quickly gather and distill the knowledge on both sides of that relationship.
"Are there more or less examples of successful companies in a given domain that leverage software to increase productivity than software companies which find success in said domain?"