The 30,000 number comes from the Ministry of Health. It seems the UN number also aligns with the new 30,000 number. This is much worse than the 3,000 that was reported earlier. But it also seems like the crackdown is over now, and we're still just counting deaths from Jan 8 and 9.
I compare this to the recent protests in Bangladesh, where Sheikh Hasina ordered the military to shoot the protesters and the military refused. The difference between these two countries is proof that people do have the ability to disobey orders from authoritarian leaders, and that decision can have a huge impact.
Then why does the article say that they couldn't independently verify the number and that the only source is a German-Iranian eye doctor?
It comes, allegedly, from people from that ministry who were talking to TIME.
I would imagine their contact was probably mediated by the state department - the same people currently gearing up for an Iraq-style invasion.
Later on TIME adds:
>TIME has been unable to independently verify these figures.
Which is not altogether unsurprising. TIME wasnt exactly the most careful magazine when it came to verifying state department supplied intelligence about WMDs back in 2003.
“The Iranian regime is in trouble. Bringing in mercenaries is its last best hope,” Mr Pompeo wrote on X. “Riots in dozens of cities and the Basij under siege — Mashhad, Tehran, Zahedan. Next stop: Baluchestan," he added. At least ten killed in Iran protests as authorities issue warnings to demonstrators"
“Happy New Year to every Iranian in the streets. Also to every Mossad agent walking beside them."
https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/01/03/mike-po...
1. The army (air, land, sea, etc)
2. IRGC (revolutionary guards)
3. Basij (a specialized militia within IRCG, often with their own chain of command)
4. Police (for civilian monitoring and control)
5. Guidance Patrol (specialized "morality" police for enforcing Islamic law)
6. Other (undercover, highly trained agents both inside and outside of country)
The reason why it's setup up this way, is to prevent mutiny within the regime.
After the revolution, they realized that they have to setup a system like this to protect themselves, if one of these is compromised.
Currently, Iran is in the process of preparing for a long war with Israel, United States (and their allies in the region). Khamenei has been moved to a secure location and is no longer appearing for "Friday prayers".
He will likely attempt to flee should the regime falls. I hope that he is captured alive and is forced to stand trial.
He has to answer for every single person he has harmed, both in Iran and elsewhere.
They're trying into install a literal monarchy on behalf of a regime which is guilty of committing a Nazi style genocide.
Probably a little skepticism is warranted on their casualty figures.
(Also, were your family part of the mujahideen/OMPI/MEK? I know two French iranian from the diaspora: one had his family involved in the revolution against the shah, and then had to leave when fundamentalists took power, and the other is from a Persian northern clan who supported the Shah and got booted out when the Shah fell, but they still had property (Hashish and poppy seeds if i understood the "import export" subtext correctly) in Afghanistan and northern Iran. Wildly different family stories, both still sad at what Iran became)
It's more ethnic cleansing via conflict than it is industrial racially targetted murder.
Remember Israel has millions of "Arab Israelis"/Palestinians living in Israel proper.
The salient features are mass slaughter and land grabs motivated by a racial supremacy based ideology. In these respects they are identical.
Those Arabs dont feel entirely safe living as second class citizens in a society where UN recognized genocide of their brothers and sisters goes unpunished and chants of "death to arabs" have become louder every day.