zlacker

I was prepared to disagree with the thesis that estimation is impossible. I've had a decent record at predicting a project timeline that actually tracked with the actual development. I agree with the idea that most of the work is unknown, but it's bounded uncertainty: you can still assert "this blank space on the map is big enough to hold a wyvern, but not an adult dragon" and plan accordingly.

But the author's assessment of the role that estimates play in an organization also rings true. I've seen teams compare their estimates against their capacity, report that they can't do all this work; priorities and expected timelines don't change. Teams find a way to deliver through some combination of cutting scope or cutting corners.

The results are consistent with the author's estimation process - what's delivered is sized to fit the deadline. A better thesis might have been "estimates are useless"?