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1. mmcnl+(OP)[view] [source] 2026-01-24 20:06:04
I don't get the fight against estimates. An estimate is an estimate. An estimate can be wrong. It likely is wrong, that's fine, it doesn't have to be perfect. There is a confidence interval. You can communicate that.

Very often something like "6-12 months" is a good enough estimate. I've worked in software a long time and I really don't get why many people think it's impossible to give such an estimate. Most of us are developing glorified CRUD apps, it's not rocket science. And even rocket science can be estimated to a usable degree.

Really you have no idea if feature X is going to take 1 day or 1 year?

replies(4): >>hahn-k+r4 >>lucket+Xi >>marcos+HS >>ptmcc+ET
2. hahn-k+r4[view] [source] 2026-01-24 20:39:15
>>mmcnl+(OP)
For me the worst part is that I (and they) don't fully know what the person asking me from the estimate wants me to build, and usually the fastest way is to just build the thing.
3. lucket+Xi[view] [source] 2026-01-24 22:21:08
>>mmcnl+(OP)
I think there are range of situations causing anti-estimate sentiment, each team is different, each tram has different levels or combination of these:

- manager’s refusal to acknowledge any uncertainty

- unclear requirements/expectations/system under change

- changing requirements

- negative consequence (“penalties”) for inaccurate estimate

I’m now also in the environment where I give ranges, but not everybody is.

4. marcos+HS[view] [source] 2026-01-25 03:53:17
>>mmcnl+(OP)
> It likely is wrong, that's fine

It's almost never fine, though. When it's fine, people aren't pressured into giving estimates.

> It likely is wrong, that's fine

The most you can do is say it. Communication demands effort from all involved parties, and way too many people in a position to demand estimates just refuse to put any effort into it.

5. ptmcc+ET[view] [source] 2026-01-25 04:04:10
>>mmcnl+(OP)
You've never had a manager or product person take estimates, even clearly communicated as low confidence or rife with unknowns, as gospel truth? Lucky you.
replies(1): >>boness+on1
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6. boness+on1[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-01-25 09:50:37
>>ptmcc+ET
Engineer: “It will take me two days [of work].” Sales:”We will have your fix ready in three calendar days [today + 2].

Actual work that week gives employee 3 hours of non-meeting time, each daily meeting adds 0.5 hours of high-urgency administrative work. Friday’s we have a mandatory all-hands town halls…

Repeat that cycle for every customer facing issue, every demo facing issue, and internal political issue and you quickly drive deep frustrations and back talking.

I think there’s a fundamental truth: no one in their right minds, not even motivated engineers, actually hears anything but calendar when getting “days” estimates. It’s a terrible misrepresentation almost all the time, and engineers do a disservice when they yield to pressure to deliver them outside the broader planning process.

Project schedules should be the only place that time commitments come from, since they’re informed with necessary resource availability.

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