zlacker

> Unarmed people are doomed to change things not only in authoritarian countries, but even in nominally democratic ones. Examples include peaceful and not-so-peaceful protests in Iran, Belarus, and Russia in the struggle against the authorities. Peaceful protests without the support of the army and the elite always end in failure.

I'd take issue with that, because once it becomes an armed conflict then the full power of the state military will be deployed.

And modern nation-states of mid-size or above all have militaries than can crush any civilian armed resistance, simply because of the lethality and capability gap between civilian and military weapons.

The only winning move for a populace, then, is to try and keep resistance sub-armed conflict (and avoid being bated into armed resistance).