sometimes it seems like people are just living in another timeline.
This shit has gotten worse since 2023.
You don't actually have to take peoples word for it, read epoch.ai developments, look into the benchmark literature, look at ARC-AGI...
I would really appreciate it if people could be specific when they say stuff like this because it's so crazy out of line with all measurement efforts. There are an insane amount of serious problems with current LLM / agentic paradigms, but the idea that things have gotten worse since 2023? I mean come on.
That's where the skepticism comes in, because one side of the discussion is hyping up exponential growth and the other is seeing something that looks more logarithmic instead.
I realize anecdotes aren't as useful as numbers for this kind of analysis, but there's such a wide gap between what people are observing in practice and what the tests and metrics are showing it's hard not to wonder about those numbers.