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[parent] [thread] 3 comments
1. simonw+(OP)[view] [source] 2026-01-01 01:19:38
Given how badly my 2025 predictions aged I'm probably going to sit that one out! https://simonwillison.net/2025/Jan/10/ai-predictions/
replies(2): >>DANmod+99 >>zahlma+w9
2. DANmod+99[view] [source] 2026-01-01 02:51:41
>>simonw+(OP)
Don’t be a bad sport, now!!
3. zahlma+w9[view] [source] 2026-01-01 02:54:20
>>simonw+(OP)
Making predictions is useful even when they turn out very wrong. Consider also giving confidence levels, so that you can calibrate going forward.
replies(1): >>jjude+Fm
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4. jjude+Fm[view] [source] [discussion] 2026-01-01 05:52:26
>>zahlma+w9
I use predictions to prepare rather than to plan.

Planing depends on deterministic view of the future. I used to plan (esp annual plans) until about 5 years. Now I scan for trends and prepare myself for different scenarios that can come in the future. Even if you get it approximately right, you stand apart.

For tech trends, I read Simon, Benedict Evans, Mary Meeker etc. Simon is in a better position make these predictions than anyone else having closely analyzed these trends over the last few years.

Here I wrote about my approach: https://www.jjude.com/shape-the-future/

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