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1. tmvphi+(OP)[view] [source] 2025-10-22 14:57:42
Tell me the nuance then. If people have concerns about Kessler syndrome at the starlink scale then why wouldn't something literally 1000x bigger be even more concerning.
replies(2): >>camina+T4 >>tmvphi+Dm
2. camina+T4[view] [source] 2025-10-22 15:15:08
>>tmvphi+(OP)
I already did. Your reply/edit merely repeated your prior observation.

Getting back to the point:

You literally claimed that one of these would "inevitabl[y]" trigger a Kessler effect with no proof.

> something literally 1000x bigger be even more concerning.

Again, this isn't convincing if you don't have the denominator/context. Think about it: you still can't answer how many of these are needed to trigger the Kessler effect.

BTW, "increase by a FACTOR of about 300" != "increase in a RISK FACTOR of over 300"

3. tmvphi+Dm[view] [source] 2025-10-22 16:24:33
>>tmvphi+(OP)
I know this in the same way that even though I don't know the exact credence to assign the probability of particular bad effects from global warming, I can confidently say that an increase by a factor of 1000 of the CO2 emissions would be a bad thing. This is not because I have done a simulation, but instead my beliefs are based on the assumption that while concerned experts might be wrong in the details, they are probably not wrong with a gap of 3 orders of magnitude.
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