zlacker

Same with the Federal Reserve. Why not continuously adjust interest rates, instead of all of Wall Street agonizing over each decision made?

>>DaveZa+(OP)
How would not adjusting vs always adjusting be any different? Is it not a made decision to leave it alone and not change it?

>>DaveZa+(OP)
It seems to me that a large percentage of jobs exist just to exist, and that they use their continued existence to justify their continued existence. I wonder how much the world would keep spinning if 90% of people were laid off. Maybe we'll find out if AI is adopted widely enough...

>>DaveZa+(OP)
If data was reliable, instant, and comprehensive, this might work. Of course, under those circumstances socialism or communism would probably work out even better.

It is precisely because data comes out murkily, with a lag - and the effects of changes have a lag as well- that managing the Federal Reserve can't by reduced to a simple process. It is an art done by humans- one where 'general trust in the institution' is the single most important variable of the last 40 years.

>>DaveZa+(OP)
Because the agonizing is part of their job. That's called "animal spirits" / managing expectations. The expectation of future interest rates is nearly as important as what they actually are.

>>DaveZa+(OP)
Interest rates work with different lags in different parts of the economy. The current hiking cycle basically only just has taken its full effect (think when people refinance debt and when they delay this.)

>>DaveZa+(OP)
Wallstreet would be screwed by this. You can't take away the gambling aspect and big wins because then you are left with a pre-80s style market where dividends and steady income matter over 'line goes up next quarter'. The current market would HATE that.

>>_DeadF+7V1
couldn't agree more.

Many economists point out that the Fed's policies serve the 1% above all.

Heck you can get a Nobel Prize based on your Fed chairmanship, then tank the economy.

One pundit observes that the Fed is an example of "burn the village to save the village" as (rarely) an underemployed firefighter-turned-arsonist will do. Extreme perspective for sure.

In the era of Big Data, can't real-time data and policy co-exist?