zlacker

To be explicit my P(#) is meant to be the Bayesian probability an observer gives to # being conscious, not the proposition P that # is conscious. It's meant to model Descartes's receptor, as well as disagreement of the kind, "My friend things week 28 fetuses are probably (~% 80%) conscious, and I think they're probably (~20%) not". P(week 28 fetuses) itself is not true or false.

I don't think it's incoherent to make probabilistic claims like this. It might be incoherent to make deeper claims about what laws given the distribution itself. Either way, what I think is interesting is that, if we also think there is such a thing as an amount of consciousness a thing can have, as in the panpsychic view, these two things create an inverse-square law of moral consideration that matches the shape of most people's intuitions oddly well.

For example: Let's say rock is probably not conscious, P(rock) < 1%. Even if it is, it doesn't seem like it would be very conscious. A low percentage of a low amount multiplies to a very low expected value, and that matches our intuitions about how much value to give rocks.

>>hiAndr+(OP)
Ah I understand, you're exactly right I misinterpreted the notation of P(#). I was considering each model as assigning binary truth values to the propositions (e.g., physicalism might reject all but Postulate #1, while an anthropocentric model might affirm only #1, #2, and #6), and modeling the probability distribution over those models instead. I think the expected value computation ends up with the same downstream result of distributions over propositions.

By incoherent I was referring to the internal inconsistencies of a model, not the probabilistic claims. Ie a model that denies your own consciousness but accepts the consciousness of others is a difficult one to defend. I agree with your statement here.

Thanks for your comment I enjoyed thinking about this. I learned the estimating distributions approach from the rationalist/betting/LessWrong folks and think it works really well, but I've never thought much about how it applies to something unfalsifiable.

>>elliot+B2
You're welcome! Probability distributions over inherently unfalsifiable claims is exotic territory at first, but when I see actual philosophers in the wild debate things I often find a back-and-forth of such claims that definitely looks like two people shifting around likelihood values. I take this as evidence that such a process is what's "really" going on when we go one level removed from the arguments and their background assumptions themselves.