zlacker

This is a great predictive piece, written in sci-fi narrative. I think a key part missing in all these predictions is neural architecture search. DeepSeek has shown that simply increasing compute capacity is not the only way to increase performance. AlexNet was also another case. While I do think more processing power is better, we will hit a wall where there is no more training data. I predict that in the near future we will have more processing power to train LLM's than the rate at which we produce data for the LLM. Synthetic data can only get you so far.

I also think that the future will not necessarily be better AI, but more accessible one's. There's an incredible amount of value in designing data centers that are more efficient. Historically, it's a good bet to assume that computing cost per FLOP will reduce as time goes on and this is also a safe bet as it relates to AI.

I think a common misconception with the future of AI is that it will be centralized with only a few companies or organization capable of operating them. Although tech like Apple Intelligence is half baked, we can already envision a future where the AI is running on our phones.