zlacker

In this comment chain, I have already clarified that by "inflation," I'm not referring to how an items price goes up after it becomes subject to a tariff. I'm referring to overall inflation in goods and services. You can see the rate of inflation from March of 2018 to the beginning of the COVID stimulus here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL

>>bitshi+(OP)
If you tariff a small section of the economy, you aren't going to see much movement. Producers can adjust by moving production abroad (to avoid raw input tariffs) and by moving production to home (to avoid final assembly tariffs) (often a combination of both).

Trump's 2018 tariffs were narrow enough that they were easy to digest. Trump's 2025 tariffs are fairly broad and we won't be able to move production around in multiple places to deal with it, so much of the economy is going to eat the cost directly. So if money supply stays the same, Americans simply reduce their lifestyle to compensate (buy 25% less stuff, eat 25% less food), but I don't think that Trump (as someone who is addicted to excess) will see that as viable, so money is going to be printed and injected into the economy somehow.