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[parent] [thread] 22 comments
1. dekhn+(OP)[view] [source] 2025-01-21 23:03:21
The way I think about this project, along with all of Trump's plans, is that he wants to maximize the US's economic output to ensure we are competitive with China in the future.

Yes, it would make money for stockholders. But it's much more than that: it's an empire-scale psychological game for leverage in the future.

replies(2): >>llamai+b8 >>rodger+Z9
2. llamai+b8[view] [source] 2025-01-21 23:54:12
>>dekhn+(OP)
> he wants to maximize the US's economic output to ensure we are competitive with China in the future.

LOL

Under Trump policies, China will win "in the future" on energy and protein production alone.

Once we've speedrunned our petro supply and exhausted our agricultural inputs with unfathomably inefficient protein production, China can sit back and watch us crumble under our own starvation.

No conflict necessary under these policies, just patience! They're playing the game on a scale of centuries, we can't even stay focused on a single problem or opportunity for a few weeks.

replies(4): >>cpursl+Yd >>seando+Jg >>SpicyL+Qj >>vaccin+el
3. rodger+Z9[view] [source] 2025-01-22 00:06:09
>>dekhn+(OP)
Donald Trump is a wallet inspector. So is Sam Altman.
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4. cpursl+Yd[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 00:33:55
>>llamai+b8
What do you think the Greenland and Canada thing is all about?

Sort things out with Venezuela and this issue resolves itself (for a little while, at least).

replies(1): >>llamai+Ke
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5. llamai+Ke[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 00:40:49
>>cpursl+Yd
America can subject itself to domestic and international turmoil by invading as many allies as it wants. China's winning strategy is still to keep innovating on energy and protein at scale and wait for starvation while they build their soft power empire and America becomes a pariah state. They're in no rush at all.

Our military and political focus will be keeping neighbors out on one side and trying to seize land on the other side while China goes and builds infrastructure for the entire developing world that they'll exploit for centuries.

Is this a serious suggestion? America can just keep invading people ad infinitum instead of... applying slight thumb pressure on the market's scales to develop more efficient protein sources and more renewable fuel sources before we are staring at the last raw economic input we have?

Brilliant

replies(2): >>vaccin+Ll >>dmix+FW
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6. seando+Jg[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 00:59:01
>>llamai+b8
> They're playing the game on a scale of centuries

What's going to be left of their population in a single century?

replies(1): >>llamai+7i
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7. llamai+7i[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 01:12:24
>>seando+Jg
Unfortunately one of those things that authoritarianism has a lot more methods to solve than other systems, which really underscores the importance of beating them in the long term.
replies(1): >>vaccin+pl
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8. SpicyL+Qj[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 01:21:31
>>llamai+b8
Things can always change, but today China is significantly more dependent on petrochemicals than the US. I'm not sure what you're referring to with regards to agriculture, both the US and China have strong food industries that produce plenty of foods containing protein.
replies(1): >>llamai+im
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9. vaccin+el[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 01:30:32
>>llamai+b8
> Once we've speedrunned our petro supply and exhausted our agricultural inputs with unfathomably inefficient protein production, China can sit back and watch us crumble under our own starvation.

China is the largest importer of crude oil in the world. China imports 59% of its oil consumptions, and 80% of food products. Meanwhile, US is fully self sufficient on both food and oil.

> They're playing the game on a scale of centuries

Is that why they are completely broke, having built enough ghost buildings that house entire population of France - 65 million vacant units? Is that why they are now isolated in geopolitics, having allied with Russia and pissed off all their neighbors and Europe?

replies(1): >>llamai+sm
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10. vaccin+pl[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 01:31:47
>>llamai+7i
Their current very advanced method, is to send village elders to couples and single guys and berate them on why they are not having sex or having kids (hint: no jobs and no money)
replies(1): >>llamai+2n
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11. vaccin+Ll[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 01:33:29
>>llamai+Ke
> They're in no rush at all.

China is dead broke and will shrink to 600M in population before 2100. State owned enterprises are eating up all the private enterprises. Meanwhile, Chinese rich leaves China by tens of thousands per year, and capital outflow increases every year.

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12. llamai+im[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 01:37:05
>>SpicyL+Qj
Things are changing.

In 2023 China had more net new solar capacity than the US has in total, and it will only climb from there. In order to do this, they're flexing muscles in R&D and mass production that the US has actually started to flex, and now will face extreme headwinds and decreased capital investment.

Regarding agriculture: America's agricultural powerhouse, California's Central Valley, is rapidly depleting its water supplies. The midwest is depleting its topsoil at double the rate that USDA considers sustainable.

None of this is irreversible or irrecoverable, but it very clearly requires some countervailing push on market forces. Market forces do not naturally operate on these types of time scales and repeatedly externalize costs to neighbors or future generations.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-35582-x

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/57-billion-tons-of...

replies(1): >>SpicyL+5w
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13. llamai+sm[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 01:38:00
>>vaccin+el
> China is the largest importer of crude oil in the world.

Uh yeah, duh. Why would you not deplete other people's finite resources while you build massive capacity of your own infinite resources?

replies(1): >>vaccin+bn
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14. llamai+2n[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 01:41:39
>>vaccin+pl
I guess we can just bet on them never hearing about and investing massive amounts of time and money into artificial wombs.

Instead of figuring that out, they'll just watch their civilization crumble.

Btw: they're already investing heavily in artificial wombs and affiliated technologies.

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15. vaccin+bn[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 01:42:29
>>llamai+sm
China's oil reserve only lasts 80 days. In case of any conflict that disrupts oil import, China would be shutting down very quickly. Since you brought up crumble and starvation.
replies(1): >>llamai+zn
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16. llamai+zn[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 01:45:34
>>vaccin+bn
And? Who's going to try and achieve that? It has extremely diversified oil sources.
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17. SpicyL+5w[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 02:43:26
>>llamai+im
It sounds like those countervailing pushes are ongoing? The Nature article mentions how California passed regulatory reforms in 2014 to address the Central Valley water problem. The Smithsonian article describes how no-till practices to avoid topsoil depletion have been implemented by a majority of farmers in four major crops.
replies(2): >>llamai+ay >>phtriv+ym1
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18. llamai+ay[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 03:00:05
>>SpicyL+5w
Uhhh I’m going to describe a specific case, but you can extrapolate this to just about every single sustainability initiative out there.

No-till farming has been significantly supported by the USDA’s programs like EQIP

During his first term, Trump pushed for a $325MM cut to EQIP. That's 20-25% of their funding and would have required cutting hundreds if not thousands of employees.

Even BEFORE these cuts (and whatever he does this time around), USDA already has to reject almost 75% of eligible EQIP applicants

Regarding CA’s water: Trump already signed an EO requiring more water be diverted from the San Joaquin Delta into the desert Central Valley to subsidize water-intensive crops. This water, by the way, is mostly sold to mega-corps at rates 98% below what nearby American consumers pay via their municipal water supplies, effectively eliminating the blaring sirens that say “don’t grow shit in the desert.”

Now copy-paste to every other mechanism by which we can increase our nation’s climate security and ta-da, you’ve discovered one of the major problems with Trumpism. It turns out politics do matter!

replies(1): >>SpicyL+qM
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19. SpicyL+qM[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 05:21:00
>>llamai+ay
I certainly agree that EQIP should be funded!

But why are programs like this controversial, even though anything shaped like a farm subsidy is normally popular? It seems to me that things like your Central Valley analysis are precisely the reason. The Central Valley has been one of the nation's agricultural heartlands for a while, and for quite a few common food products represents 90%+ of domestic production. So if this "blaring siren" you describe is real, and we have to stop farming there, a realistic response plan would have to include an explanation of what all the farmers are going to do and where we'll get almonds and broccoli from.

Perhaps you know all this already, but a lot of people who advocate such policies don't seem to. This then feeds into skepticism about whether they're hearing the "blaring siren" correctly in the first place. Personally, I think nearly arbitrarily extreme water subsidies are worth it if that's what we need to keep olives and pomegranates and celery in stock at the grocery store.

replies(1): >>llamai+vw1
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20. dmix+FW[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 07:08:59
>>llamai+Ke
America isn't invading Greenland or Canada. Taking those comments seriously takes quite a bit of mental gymnastics when you do a cursory consideration of the geopolitical and government logistical implications alone. Makes for good clickbait headlines, not for serious geopolitical risk analysis.
replies(1): >>llamai+vg2
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21. phtriv+ym1[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 11:21:21
>>SpicyL+5w
> regulatory reforms

Regulations and waltzes aren't selling this year.

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22. llamai+vw1[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 12:41:02
>>SpicyL+qM
The solution is to rely on the magic of prices to gradually push farming elsewhere while simultaneously investing heavily in more efficient farming practices and shifting our diet away from ultra-inefficient meat production.

You really DON’T need to centrally plan everything. The market will still find good solutions under the new parameters, but we need those parameters to change before we’re actually out of water.

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23. llamai+vg2[view] [source] [discussion] 2025-01-22 17:10:32
>>dmix+FW
Oh yeah, I guess we can just threaten them into giving us their valuable resources while ours dwindle.

Yeah, obviously the whole thing makes no fucking sense.

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