Upd: thanks for a link, looks quite bad. I am now thinking that an adjacent VM in a provider like Hetzner or Contabo could be able to pull it off. I guess I will have to finally switch remaining Docker installations to Podman and/or resort to https://firewalld.org/2024/11/strict-forward-ports
if theres defense in depth it may be worth checking out L2 forwarding within a project for unexpected pivots an attacker could use. we've seen this come up in pentests
I work on SPR, we take special care in our VPN to avoid these problems as well, by not letting docker do the firewalling for us. (one blog post on the issue: https://www.supernetworks.org/pages/blog/docker-networking-c...).
as an aside there's a closely related issue with one-hop attacks with conntrack as well, that we locked down in October.